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No bet. Robert Morris has two road games against FBS teams, too few for our number to price this one.
Buffalo opened as a 28.5-point favourite over Robert Morris at DraftKings and has not moved. Our number is Buffalo by 16.3, 12.2 points short of the line. It makes no bet. The method needs at least 4 games in each sample before it prices a side, and Robert Morris has 2.
How the number is built
The method is one clause: our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, 2025 and 2026 together.
Buffalo is 1-5 at home against FBS teams over that span, losing by 6.0 points a game across 6 games. Robert Morris is 0-2 on the road against FBS teams, losing by 38.5 a game across 2 games. The difference is 32.5 points. Half of it is 16.25, which rounds to 16.3.
Robert Morris plays outside the FBS, and the method has almost nothing to go on for it. Its two FBS games are a 45-3 loss at West Virginia on 30 August 2025 and a 45-10 loss at Akron on 12 September. Two games proves little.
Buffalo at home
The spread asks whether Buffalo wins by 29 or more. In its 6 home games against FBS teams, all in 2025, it won once, 31-30 over Eastern Michigan.
The five losses were all by 17 or fewer: Troy by 4, UConn by 3, Akron by 8, Miami (OH) by 17 and Ohio by 5. That is a team whose home games against FBS opponents were close, and a 29-point margin is a long way from any of them.
The games the method leaves out point the other way, and they are the closer match for this one. Buffalo beat Saint Francis 45-6 at home in 2025, a 39-point margin against a team outside the FBS. It beat UAlbany 21-17 at home on 3 September, a 4-point margin against another. One of those covers 28.5 and one does not.
2026 so far
Buffalo is 1-2 and has lost two in a row. After UAlbany it lost 33-20 at Florida International and 55-13 at Penn State on 19 September. Against FBS teams it has scored 16.5 a game and allowed 44.0.
Robert Morris is 2-1. It won 28-7 at Wagner and 29-9 over West Virginia State, both outside the FBS, before the loss at Akron. It has scored 22.3 a game and allowed 20.3.
Last season
Buffalo went 5-7 in 2025 and won by 0.5 a game. It was 2-5 at home and 3-2 on the road. Robert Morris went 3-9 and lost by 9.8 a game, and its only FBS opponent was West Virginia.
The two teams did not meet in 2025 or 2026.
The price
Buffalo opened at -28.5 and is -28.5 now, read 24 September 2026 at 04:29 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. Both sides of the spread are priced at -110.
The moneyline has Buffalo at -6500 and Robert Morris at +2000, unchanged from the open. With the margin removed, that prices Buffalo to win 95.4% of the time. ESPN’s FPI has Buffalo at 94.8%.
Our number has Buffalo winning too, by 16.3. The only question is whether it wins by 29.
Pick: no bet
No bet on the spread. Our number rests on 8 games, split 6 and 2, and the method makes no bet when either sample is under 4 games.
The two Robert Morris games were losses by 42 and 35, both bigger than this spread. What carries our number is Buffalo’s home record, and one side of the sample cannot price a game alone.
What changes it
More road games against FBS teams for Robert Morris. It has 2, and this one would be its third, still one short of 4.
A move in the line only changes the gap. The line has sat at 28.5 since the open, and the 12.2-point gap still rests on two Robert Morris games.
The total
The total opened at 44.5 and is still 44.5, both sides at -110.
Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, Buffalo’s games went over 44.5 in 8 of 13. Robert Morris’s two FBS games produced 48 and 55, both over. Its three games this season produced 35, 38 and 55.
Pass on the total at 44.5. Two games is no rate, and Robert Morris’s two games this season against teams outside the FBS produced 35 and 38.
Robert Morris at Buffalo, Saturday 26 September, 3:30 PM ET, Broadview Stadium, Buffalo. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 September 2026, 04:29 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 23-24 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.
