CFB
CFB · Saturday 24 October
Sacramento State vs Ball State Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Our number has Ball State by 10.4. At +14.5, take Sacramento State.
Sacramento State at Ball State is a Mid-American Conference game on Saturday 24 October, 3:30 PM ET, at Scheumann Stadium in Muncie. Ball State is a 14.5-point favorite at DraftKings, and our prediction makes it 10.4. The gap is 4.1 points toward Sacramento State. The threshold for a bet is 3.
The prices and what they say
DraftKings has Ball State -14.5 at -108 and Sacramento State +14.5 at -112, read 24 October 2026 at 00:16 UTC. The line opened at Ball State -9.5.
On the moneyline, Ball State is -600 and Sacramento State +440. Those two prices carry a margin: the extra a book builds in so that the two implied chances add to more than 100%. With the margin removed, the market gives Ball State an 82.2% chance to win and Sacramento State 17.8%. ESPN’s FPI sits further toward Ball State, at 87.2% and 12.8%. The method stakes the spread, so these are context only.
How 10.4 is reached
Our home margin is half the difference between Ball State’s average margin at home and Sacramento State’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, 2025 and 2026 together. Bowl and playoff games are neutral and left out. Neither team played one in 2025.
Ball State is 3-2 at home against FBS teams over that span, losing by 1.2 points a game. Sacramento State is 0-4 on the road against FBS teams, losing by 22.0 a game. Half the difference is 10.4 points to Ball State: as a spread, Ball State -10.4.
The rule bets a side when it and the spread are at least 3 points apart. Against -14.5, the gap is 4.1. That clears it.
The rule also needs at least 4 games in each sample. Ball State has 5. Sacramento State has 4, exactly the minimum, and 3 of them are from this season. A base that small proves little on its own. It meets the rule and no more.
This season so far
Ball State is 2-5 and 1-2 in the MAC, 1-5 against FBS teams with a margin of -24.5 a game. It won its last game 32-31 at Bowling Green on 17 October. Before that it lost 56-3 at Ohio State, 51-15 at Liberty, 26-13 at Kent State, 39-24 at home to Toledo and 45-14 at Northwestern. Its other win was 41-17 over Stony Brook, a team outside the FBS.
Sacramento State is 1-6 and 0-4 in the MAC, 0-6 against FBS teams at -29.3 a game. Its one win was 52-0 over Mississippi Valley State, a team outside the FBS. Its last game was a 48-7 home loss to Ohio on 17 October.
Both teams played Bowling Green. Ball State won 32-31 there. Sacramento State lost 38-10 there on 10 October. Of the 2026 results above, only Ball State’s loss to Toledo and Sacramento State’s three road games against FBS teams sit inside our number. The rest is outside the method.
Ball State at home, Sacramento State on the road
Ball State’s home half is 5 games against FBS teams, 3-2 at -1.2 a game. One is from this season: the 39-24 loss to Toledo on 3 October. The rest are from 2025, when Ball State went 4-1 at home overall.
Sacramento State’s road half is 4 games, all losses. This season it lost 28-17 at Eastern Michigan on 29 August, 49-3 at Fresno State on 12 September and 38-10 at Bowling Green. The fourth is from 2025, its only game against an FBS team that season.
The halves the method leaves out point the same way. Ball State went 0-7 on the road in 2025, and its one road win in the two seasons is the 32-31 at Bowling Green. Sacramento State is 1-3 at home this season, the win being the 52-0 over Mississippi Valley State.
Last season
Ball State went 4-8 in 2025, 3-8 against FBS teams, scoring 15.8 points a game and allowing 29.8, a margin of -14.0. Sacramento State went 7-5 at +7.5 a game, 4-2 at home and 3-3 on the road.
Sacramento State’s 2025 record came with one game against an FBS team, a loss. In our view its +7.5 margin says little about this game. The two teams have not played each other in 2025 or 2026.
Pick: Sacramento State +14.5
Sacramento State +14.5 at -112, DraftKings, read 24 October 2026 at 00:16 UTC. The gap is 4.1 points against a 3-point threshold.
The line opened at Ball State -9.5, closer to our number than the current -14.5. The bet rests on 9 games split 5 and 4, with Sacramento State’s half at the minimum size.
What kills the bet
The line. Sacramento State stays a bet down to +13.4. Below that, the call is a pass. Ball State would need to be -7.4 or shorter to be the bet.
The risk is this season. Sacramento State has lost its six FBS games by 29.3 points a game, more than the spread, and on 2026 alone the market looks about right. Our number trusts two seasons, in which Ball State at home has been close to even at -1.2.
The injury list on the ESPN game page, read 24 October 2026 at 00:16 UTC, carried no names for either team. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total
The total is 51.5, up from 49.5 at the open. The over is -102 and the under -118.
Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, Ball State’s games went over 51.5 in 8 of 17, and Sacramento State’s in 2 of 7. This season Ball State’s six FBS games produced 59, 66, 39, 63, 59 and 63 points. Sacramento State’s produced 45, 52, 41, 41, 48 and 55.
No bet on the total. The method stakes the spread only, and these figures are a count, with the two teams pulling in opposite directions.
Sacramento State at Ball State, Saturday 24 October, 3:30 PM ET, Scheumann Stadium, Muncie. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 October 2026, 00:16 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025 and 2026 seasons, checked against Nucleus. Rankings: AP Poll, Week 8, 2026. Injuries: ESPN game page, read 24 October 2026, 00:16 UTC.