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No bet. Sacramento State has one home game against an FBS team, too few for our number to price this one.
Massachusetts opened as a 6-point favourite at Sacramento State at DraftKings and is 4 now. Our number has Sacramento State winning by 2.6, 6.6 points away from the line. It makes no bet. The method needs at least 4 games in each sample before it prices a side, and Sacramento State’s home sample has 1.
How the number is built
The method is one clause: our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, 2025 and 2026 together.
Sacramento State is 0-1 at home against FBS teams over that span, losing by 21.0 in its only game. Massachusetts is 1-6 on the road against FBS teams, losing by 26.1 a game across 7 games. The difference is 5.1 points in Sacramento State’s favour. Half of it is 2.6.
Say it plainly: the method has almost nothing to go on for Sacramento State. Its 2025 schedule held one FBS team, a 20-17 loss at Nevada. Its only FBS home game in the two seasons is the 31-10 loss to North Dakota State on 19 September. One game proves little.
Massachusetts on the road
Six of Massachusetts’s seven road games against FBS teams came in a 0-12 season in 2025, and it lost all six by 25 or more: 47-7 at Iowa, 42-6 at Missouri, 42-6 at Kent State, 38-13 at Central Michigan, 44-10 at Akron and 42-14 at Ohio.
The seventh is the one that argues against our number. Massachusetts won 37-21 at Rutgers on 3 September, its only FBS game of 2026. Without it, the road average is -33.2. With it, -26.1. The method treats the 2025 team and the 2026 team as one, and this season’s evidence says they are not the same.
2026 so far
Massachusetts is 3-0. After Rutgers it beat Sacred Heart 37-10 and Stonehill 36-14, both teams outside the FBS. It has scored 36.7 a game and allowed 15.0.
Sacramento State is 1-3, and 0-3 against FBS teams. It lost 28-17 at Eastern Michigan, beat Mississippi Valley State 52-0, a team outside the FBS, lost 49-3 at Fresno State and then lost to North Dakota State. Against FBS teams it has scored 10.0 a game and allowed 36.0. Sacramento State is 0-1 in the Mid-American Conference; Massachusetts has not played a conference game.
Last season
Massachusetts went 0-12 in 2025 and lost by 27.5 a game. Sacramento State went 7-5 and won by 7.5 a game, against a schedule that held one FBS team.
The two teams did not meet in 2025 or 2026.
The price
Massachusetts opened at -6 and is -4 now, read 24 September 2026 at 04:29 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. That is a 2-point move toward Sacramento State. Sacramento State +4 is priced at -112, Massachusetts -4 at -108.
The moneyline has Massachusetts at -185 and Sacramento State at +154, from -225 and +185 at the open. With the margin removed, that prices Massachusetts to win 62.2% of the time. ESPN’s FPI has Massachusetts at 75.2%.
So the market and FPI both make Massachusetts the winner. Our number makes Sacramento State the winner, on a home sample of one.
Pick: no bet
No bet on the spread. Our number rests on 8 games, split 1 and 7, and the method makes no bet when either sample is under 4 games.
Sacramento State’s 1 is the 31-10 home loss to North Dakota State on 19 September. The 7 are mostly a Massachusetts team that went 0-12, and its 37-21 win at Rutgers this season argues the other way. The method has too little to price the game.
What changes it
More home games against FBS teams for Sacramento State. This one would be its second, so the home sample stays under 4 whatever the result.
A move in the line only changes the gap. The line has moved 2 points toward Sacramento State since the open, and at either number the home sample is one game.
The total
The total opened at 50.5 and is 48.5 now, over -112 and under -108.
Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, Massachusetts’s games went over 48.5 in 8 of 12, and Sacramento State’s in 1 of 4. This season Massachusetts’s games produced 58, 47 and 50 points; Sacramento State’s produced 45, 52, 52 and 41.
Pass on the total at 48.5. Four games is no rate, and this season’s totals from both teams sit either side of the number.
Massachusetts at Sacramento State, Saturday 26 September, 9:00 PM ET, Hornet Stadium, Sacramento. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 September 2026, 04:29 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 23-24 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.
