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San Diego State vs Colorado State Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Grant WellerUpdated 23 Oct 2026

No bet on Colorado State +1.5. Our San Diego State vs Colorado State prediction has Colorado State by 0.8, and a 2.3-point gap is short of the 3 points a bet needs.

San Diego State at Colorado State kicks off Saturday 24 October at 6:30 PM ET at Canvas Stadium in Fort Collins, a Pac-12 game. DraftKings has San Diego State -1.5. Our number is Colorado State -0.8. The gap is 2.3 points on Colorado State’s side, and the threshold is 3.0.

The prices

The spread is San Diego State -1.5 at -102 and Colorado State +1.5 at -118, read at DraftKings on 24 October 2026 at 00:16 UTC. Colorado State opened at +3.

Colorado State opened +3 and is +1.5 nowColorado State's line, from the open to nowpickopen +3now +1.5Negative numbers mean Colorado State is giving points. The line has moved 1.5 points toward Colorado State.
Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-24 00:16 UTC.

The moneyline is San Diego State -115 and Colorado State -105. A book builds an extra margin into its prices, so the two sides add to more than 100%. With that margin taken out, the market gives San Diego State a 51.1% chance to win and Colorado State 48.9%. ESPN’s FPI is close to the market: San Diego State 51.7%, Colorado State 48.3%. Neither team is ranked in the AP Poll, Week 8.

How Colorado State by 0.8 is reached

Our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road. It counts FBS opponents only, across 2025 and 2026, and leaves bowl and playoff games out because they are played at neutral sites.

Colorado State is 2-7 at home against FBS teams over that span, losing by 9.0 points a game. San Diego State is 3-6 on the road against FBS teams, losing by 10.7 a game. Half the difference is Colorado State by 0.8. Each sample has 9 games, clear of the 4-game minimum.

Moneyline implies San Diego State 51.1 percent, Colorado State 48.9 percentChance to win the game, as pricedSan Diego State 51.1%Colorado State 48.9%From DraftKings's moneylines, San Diego State -115 and Colorado State -105, margin removed.
Source: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-24 00:16 UTC.

Two bad halves produce a near pick’em. The market’s line of San Diego State -1.5 sits 2.3 points from it, and below 3 points the method does not call a side.

Colorado State at home, San Diego State on the road

Colorado State’s three home games against FBS teams this season: a 35-13 win over Wyoming on 5 September, then a 41-23 loss to BYU and a 56-26 loss to Oregon State. In 2025 it went 2-5 at home overall.

San Diego State has lost all three of its road games this season: 28-10 at UCLA, 41-16 at Toledo and 66-14 at Oregon State on 10 October. In 2025 it went 3-3 on the road. The road half of our number leans on last season’s San Diego State, which was a different team.

The halves the method leaves out point the same way. San Diego State is 3-1 at home this season and went 6-0 at home in 2025. Colorado State went 0-5 on the road in 2025 and has lost 59-45 at UTSA and 66-27 at Texas State this season.

This season so far

None of this is in our number. Colorado State is 2-4, 0-2 in conference play, and has lost four in a row. It scores 35.7 points a game and allows 43.2. Against FBS teams it is 1-4 with a margin of -15.8 a game. Its other win was 58-24 over Southern Utah, a team outside the FBS.

2026 point margin in every game, Colorado State and San Diego State2026: point margin in every game so farColorado State2-4, -7.5 a game+22+34-18-14-30-39San Diego State3-4, -10.0 a game+33-18-13-25+2-52+3Coloured bars are wins, dark grey losses, light grey games against teams outside the FBS.
Source: ESPN results, read 23 October 2026; cross-checked with Nucleus for games up to its 11 October pull.

San Diego State is 3-4 and 2-1 in conference play, scoring 23.3 and allowing 33.3. Against FBS teams it is 2-4 with a margin of -17.2. It has won two of its last three, 31-29 over Texas State and 26-23 over Fresno State on 17 October, both at home.

The two teams share two opponents this season. Oregon State beat Colorado State 56-26 in Fort Collins and San Diego State 66-14 in Oregon. Texas State beat Colorado State 66-27 on the road and lost 31-29 at San Diego State. On this season’s FBS margins the two sides are 1.4 points apart in Colorado State’s favour, which is the kind of gap the spread already prices.

Last season and the meeting

San Diego State went 9-4 in 2025 with a margin of +11.0 a game, scoring 26.4 and allowing 15.4. It lost its bowl game 49-47 to North Texas on 27 December 2025 at a neutral site, a game the method leaves out. Colorado State went 2-10 with a margin of -12.3, scoring 18.5 and allowing 30.8.

2025 point margin in every game, Colorado State and San Diego State2025: point margin in every game, bowls and playoffs includedColorado State2-10, -12.3 a game-17+4-1-17-21+28-12-28-32-3-28-21San Diego State9-4, +11.0 a game+42-23+34+3+21+34+23+17-32+10+22-6-2Oldest game on the left. Light grey bars are games against teams outside the FBS.
Source: ESPN results, read 23 October 2026.

The two teams met once in the span. San Diego State won 45-24 on 3 October 2025, at San Diego State. That was a San Diego State home game, so it is outside our number.

Pick: No bet

No bet. The gap is 2.3 points toward Colorado State against a 3-point threshold. Colorado State is +1.5 at -118 at DraftKings, read 24 October 2026 at 00:16 UTC, after opening at +3.

The base is 18 games, 9 per side, and both halves describe teams losing by 9 or more points a game in that venue. When both halves are that close, the price is about right.

What kills the bet

This is a pass, so the question is what would make one. Colorado State becomes a bet at +2.2 or better. San Diego State becomes a bet at +3.8 or better, which means the line moving well past the Colorado State +3 it opened at. At Colorado State +1.5 neither side qualifies.

The ESPN game page, read 24 October 2026 at 00:16 UTC, carried no injury entries for this game, so nothing on this page states who is available. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total

The total is 61.5, up from 59.5 at the open. The over is -105 and the under -115.

Game totals for Colorado State and San Diego State against 61.5Total points in every game against FBS teams, 2025 and 2026, against this game's 61.5010203040506070809010011061.5Colorado State8 of 16 over 61.5San Diego State3 of 18 over 61.5Each dot is one game against an FBS team. Dots stack where games had the same total.
Source: ESPN results, read 23 October 2026; cross-checked with Nucleus for games up to its 11 October pull. The line: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-24 00:16 UTC.

Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, Colorado State’s games went over in 8 of 16 and San Diego State’s in 3 of 18. This season Colorado State’s five FBS games produced 48, 64, 104, 82 and 93 points. San Diego State’s six produced 38, 39, 57, 60, 80 and 49.

The two counts point opposite ways, and our method stakes the spread only. That makes this a count, and the total is no bet.

San Diego State at Colorado State, Saturday 24 October, 6:30 PM ET, Canvas Stadium, Fort Collins. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 October 2026, 00:16 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025 and 2026 seasons, checked against Nucleus. Rankings: 2026 NCAA Football Rankings, AP Poll Week 8. Injuries: ESPN game page, read 24 October 2026, 00:16 UTC.