USC vs Indiana Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Our number has Indiana by 14. At -8.5, take Indiana.

No. 6 Indiana is an 8.5-point favorite over No. 15 USC at DraftKings, read 12 November at 20:34 UTC. Our number is Indiana by 14.0. The gap is 5.5 points on Indiana’s side, and the threshold for a bet is 3.

The prices

Both sides of the spread are priced at -110: Indiana -8.5 and USC +8.5. Indiana opened at -10.5.

The moneyline is Indiana -340 and USC +270. A book builds in a margin, an extra cut that makes the two prices add to more than 100%. With the margin removed, the market gives Indiana a 74.1% chance to win and USC 25.9%. ESPN’s FPI has Indiana at 78.2%.

How 14.0 is reached

Our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road. It counts only games against FBS teams, over 2025 and 2026 together. Bowl and playoff games are played at neutral sites, so they are left out.

Indiana is 10-1 at home against FBS teams over that span, winning by 26.8 points a game. USC is 4-4 on the road against FBS teams, losing by 1.1 a game. Half the difference between those two averages is 14.0.

The base is 19 games: 11 for Indiana and 8 for USC. Each sample clears the 4-game minimum. The rule makes a side a bet when our number and the spread are at least 3 points apart, and here they are 5.5 apart.

Indiana at home, USC on the road

Indiana went 7-0 at home in 2025. This season it is 4-1 at home against FBS teams: 52-16 over North Texas, 38-0 over Western Kentucky, 29-23 over Northwestern and 23-16 over Minnesota on 31 October. The one loss in the sample is 19-15 to Ohio State on 17 October. Its 55-0 win over Howard is outside the method, because Howard is not an FBS team.

USC went 2-3 on the road in 2025. This season it won 42-35 at Rutgers and 31-23 at Penn State, then lost 24-7 at Wisconsin on 24 October. That 17-point loss is the most recent road game in the sample.

The two halves are not equally strong. Indiana’s home half is 11 games with one loss. USC’s road half is 8 games at .500, and most of its weight sits in 2025.

This season so far

Indiana is 8-1, 5-1 in the Big Ten, and has won two straight. It scores 32.4 points a game and allows 12.4. Against FBS teams alone its margin is 15.6 a game, on a 7-1 record.

USC is 7-2, 4-2 in the Big Ten, with all nine games against FBS teams. It scores 32.4 and allows 24.2, a margin of 8.2 a game. Its last game was a 30-18 home win over Ohio State on 31 October, the team that beat Indiana.

The two offenses score the same 32.4 a game. The difference is defense: Indiana allows 12.4, USC 24.2. Indiana’s own scoring has dropped lately. It scored 15, 13 and 23 in its last three games.

These season records sit partly outside our number. The method uses only the home and road splits, so USC’s 5-1 home record this season and Indiana’s road wins at Rutgers, Nebraska and Michigan do not count.

Last season and the meetings

Indiana went 16-0 in 2025, scoring 41.6 a game and allowing 11.7, a margin of +29.9. Its postseason games were at neutral sites, so the method leaves them out: 38-3 over Alabama on 1 January, 56-22 over Oregon on 9 January and 27-21 over Miami on 19 January.

USC went 9-4 in 2025 at +12.8 a game, 7-0 at home and 2-3 on the road. It lost its bowl game 30-27 to TCU on 30 December 2025, at a neutral site.

The two teams did not play each other in 2025 or 2026 before this game. No meeting enters the number.

Pick: Indiana -8.5

Indiana -8.5 at -110, DraftKings, read 12 November 2026 at 20:34 UTC. It opened at -10.5. The gap is 5.5 points against a 3-point threshold.

The pick rests on 19 games, split 11 and 8. Indiana’s half is the stronger one.

What kills the bet

The line. Indiana stays a bet up to -11. Past -11 the gap falls below the threshold and the call is a pass. USC would need +17 or better to become the bet.

The risk is Indiana’s recent offense. Three straight games at 23 points or fewer will not cover many spreads, and USC has scored 30 or more in six of its nine games. Our number trusts two seasons of home and road results over the last three weeks.

The ESPN game page carried no injury list when it was read at 20:33 UTC on 12 November. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total

The total is 50.5, down from 58.5 at the open. The over is -108 and the under -112.

Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, Indiana’s games went over 50.5 in 11 of 23 and USC’s in 13 of 22. This season Indiana’s eight FBS games produced 68, 38, 52, 62, 37, 34, 19 and 39 points. USC’s nine produced 68, 39, 79, 77, 68, 46, 54, 31 and 48.

No bet on the total. Our method stakes the spread, and these are counts: Indiana’s games sit mostly under, USC’s mostly over, and they split around the line.

USC at Indiana, Saturday 14 November, 3:30 PM ET, Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, IN. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 12 November 2026, 20:34 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025 and 2026 seasons, checked against Nucleus. Rankings: AP Poll, Week 11, 2026. Injuries: ESPN game page, read 12 November 2026, 20:33 UTC.