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USC Trojans

College FootballNext: at Penn State, Sat5 predictions

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College FootballSat 10 Oct
USC Trojans
at
Penn State Nittany Lions
SpreadTotalMoneyUSC+1.5U 54.5+102PSU-1.5O 54.5-122
Our call

Our number has Penn State by 9.4. At -1.5, take Penn State.

USC at Penn State · 10 OctPenn State -1.5
Grant WellerRead the predictionUSC at Penn State prediction

The Trojans covered the spread in one of five road games in 2025, a rate only six FBS teams fell below. USC football went 9-3 straight up and 5-7 against the line, and won four of five November games while covering one.

Home and away

USC was 7-0 at home in the 2025 regular season and 2-3 away. Against the spread it was 4-3 at home and 1-4 on the road. That 20% road cover rate had six FBS teams beneath it and seven alongside. The one road cover was a 34-24 loss at Notre Dame getting 10.5.

The Trojans at home, away, as favorite and as underdogHome (7)won 7 (100.0%)covered 4 of 7 (57.1%)Away (5)won 2 (40.0%)covered 1 of 5 (20.0%)Favorite (10)won 9 (90.0%)covered 4 of 10 (40.0%)Underdog (2)won 0 (0.0%)covered 1 of 2 (50.0%)50%
2025 regular season. Neutral-site games are in neither home nor away. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

On the moneyline the five priced home games made 1.37 units and the five priced road games lost 2.37.

Big spreads

The Trojans laid 14.5 points or more six times and covered three: 73-13 over Missouri State, 59-20 over Georgia Southern and 38-17 over Northwestern. The other three were wins that fell short of the line: 33-17 at Purdue at -20.5, 45-31 over Michigan State at -18.5 and 29-10 over UCLA at -21.5. Overall as favorites they were 9-1 and 4-6; the loss was 34-32 at Illinois at -240.

The Trojans 2025 regular season, game by game2025-08-30 v Missouri State Bears 73-132025-09-06 v Georgia Southern Eagles 59-202025-09-13 at Purdue Boilermakers 33-172025-09-20 v Michigan State Spartans 45-312025-09-27 at Illinois Fighting Illini 32-342025-10-11 v Michigan Wolverines 31-132025-10-18 at Notre Dame Fighting Irish 24-342025-11-01 at Nebraska Cornhuskers 21-172025-11-07 v Northwestern Wildcats 38-172025-11-15 v Iowa Hawkeyes 26-212025-11-22 at Oregon Ducks 27-422025-11-29 v UCLA Bruins 29-10Wins above the line, losses below; bar length is the margincovered the spreaddid not cover0
9-3 in 12 games. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

November

November went 4-1 straight up and 1-4 against the spread. Narrow wins over Nebraska (21-17 at -4.5) and Iowa (26-21 at -6.5) missed, as did the 42-27 loss at Oregon getting 12.5.

Moneyline and total

Ten games had a price posted; a unit on USC in each lost 1.01. The eight as favorites made 0.99, and the two as underdogs, at Notre Dame (+300) and Oregon (+340), lost both units. The Trojans scored 36.5 a game, behind only 12 FBS teams, and the totals split six over, six under.

One unit on the Trojans to win, every game0-1-1.01 unitsfirst gamelast game
Running total over 10 priced 2025 regular-season games, at the pre-game moneyline. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

USC lost the Alamo Bowl 30-27 to TCU.

Questions and answers

How does USC do against the spread on the road?

1-4 in 2025; six FBS teams had a lower road cover rate.

Is USC good at home?

7-0 straight up and 4-3 against the spread in 2025.

How did USC do in November 2025?

Four wins in five games but only one cover.

Past games

  1. Washington at USC · 3 OctOur number has USC by 5.5.
  2. Oregon at USC · 26 SepUSC is getting 3 points at home, and our number has USC winning by 6.
  3. USC at Rutgers · 19 SepThe USC vs Rutgers recap was a perfect example of why winning the game and covering the number are different jobs.
  4. Louisiana at USC · 12 SepUSC won 49-30.

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