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Penn State Nittany Lions

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College FootballSat 10 Oct
USC Trojans
at
Penn State Nittany Lions
SpreadTotalMoneyUSC+1.5U 54.5+102PSU-1.5O 54.5-122
Our call

Our number has Penn State by 9.4. At -1.5, take Penn State.

USC at Penn State · 10 OctPenn State -1.5
Grant WellerRead the predictionUSC at Penn State prediction

The Penn State Nittany Lions were favored in nine games in 2025 and covered two. Their games cleared the total nine times in 12, and no FBS team’s games did so more often.

Favored and short

Penn State went 6-6 and covered four of 12, a cover rate that only nine FBS teams fell below and 16 matched. Laying points, the Nittany Lions won six of nine and covered two. The three non-conference wins all fell short of huge numbers: 46-11 over Nevada at -43.5, 34-0 over Florida International at -41.5 and 52-6 over Villanova at -47.5. Then came three straight losses as favorites: 30-24 to Oregon at -4.5, 42-37 at UCLA at -24.5 with a -5000 moneyline, and 22-21 to Northwestern at -20.5.

The Lions 2025 regular season, game by game2025-08-30 v Nevada Wolf Pack 46-112025-09-06 v Florida International Panthers 34-02025-09-13 v Villanova Wildcats 52-62025-09-27 v Oregon Ducks 24-302025-10-04 at UCLA Bruins 37-422025-10-11 v Northwestern Wildcats 21-222025-10-18 at Iowa Hawkeyes 24-252025-11-01 at Ohio State Buckeyes 14-382025-11-08 v Indiana Hoosiers 24-272025-11-15 at Michigan State Spartans 28-102025-11-22 v Nebraska Cornhuskers 37-102025-11-29 at Rutgers Scarlet Knights 40-36Wins above the line, losses below; bar length is the margincovered the spreaddid not cover0
6-6 in 12 games. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

As underdogs

Three games, three losses, two covers: 25-24 at Iowa at +3.5 and 27-24 to Indiana at +13.5. The miss was 38-14 at Ohio State at +17.5.

The Lions at home, away, as favorite and as underdogHome (7)won 4 (57.1%)covered 2 of 7 (28.6%)Away (5)won 2 (40.0%)covered 2 of 5 (40.0%)Favorite (9)won 6 (66.7%)covered 2 of 9 (22.2%)Underdog (3)won 0 (0.0%)covered 2 of 3 (66.7%)50%
2025 regular season. Neutral-site games are in neither home nor away. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

The total

Nine went over and three under. No FBS team had a higher over rate, and five others matched it. The Nittany Lions averaged 31.75 points and gave up 21.42.

The moneyline

Eight games carried a price; the three non-conference games and the 40-36 win at Rutgers did not. One unit on Penn State in those eight finished 5.3 down. The five priced favorite games lost 2.3, and only 12 FBS teams lost more as favorites.

One unit on the Lions to win, every game0-6-5-4-3-2-1-5.30 unitsfirst gamelast game
Running total over 8 priced 2025 regular-season games, at the pre-game moneyline. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

The regular season finished with three wins, at Michigan State, over Nebraska and at Rutgers, and the Pinstripe Bowl went 22-10 over Clemson.

Questions and answers

How often did Penn State cover as a favorite in 2025?

Twice in nine games.

Is the over the lean in Penn State games?

Nine of 12 went over in 2025, tied for the highest rate in FBS.

What was Penn State’s worst result against the number?

42-37 at UCLA as 24.5-point favorites, priced at -5000.

Past games

  1. Penn State at Northwestern · 2 OctOur number has Northwestern winning by 4.3.
  2. Wisconsin at Penn State · 26 SepOur number is Penn State by 19.4.
  3. Buffalo at Penn State · 19 SepThe Penn State vs Buffalo recap was another case where the favorite scored enough to ruin an under by itself.
  4. Penn State at Temple · 12 SepThe Penn State vs Temple recap delivered a comfortable Nittany Lions win without enough margin for favorite bettors.

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