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College Football · Friday 2 October

Penn State at Northwestern Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Grant WellerUpdated 29 Sep 2026

Our number has Northwestern winning by 4.3. At +2.5, take Northwestern.

Penn State opened as a 7-point favourite at Northwestern at DraftKings and is 2.5 now. Our number has Northwestern winning by 4.3. The gap is 6.8 points, and the threshold for a bet here is 3.

How the number is built

Our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, 2025 and 2026 together.

Northwestern is 5-2 at home against FBS teams over that span, winning by 10.3 points a game across 7 games. Penn State is 3-3 on the road against FBS teams, winning by 1.7 a game across 6 games. The difference is 8.6 points. Half of it is 4.3.

Seven and six games is a thin base. It is what there is, and only one game in each comes from 2026.

Penn State on the road

Penn State’s road record against FBS teams is 3-3, and the losses were mostly close. In 2025 it lost 42-37 at UCLA, 25-24 at Iowa and 38-14 at Ohio State, and won 28-10 at Michigan State and 40-36 at Rutgers.

The 2026 road game in the sample was a 27-9 win at Temple on 12 September. Outside the Ohio State game, no road game in the six was lost by more than 5.

Northwestern at home

Northwestern won five of its seven home games against FBS teams. In 2025 it beat UCLA 17-14, UL Monroe 42-7, Purdue 19-0 and Minnesota 38-35, and lost 34-14 to Oregon and 24-22 to Michigan.

This season it beat Colorado 41-7 on 19 September. That is the second-largest home margin in the sample, behind 42-7 over UL Monroe, and one of three wins by 19 or more.

2026 so far

Penn State is 3-1, and every game has been against an FBS team. It has scored 36.8 points a game and allowed 11.5. It beat Marshall 45-0, Temple 27-9 and Buffalo 55-13, then lost 24-20 at home to Wisconsin on 26 September.

2026 point margin in every game, Northwestern and Penn State2026: point margin in every game so farNorthwestern2-1, +14.7 a game+16South Dakota State+34Colorado-6IndianaPenn State3-1, +25.2 a game+45Marshall+18Temple+42Buffalo-4WisconsinColoured bars are wins, dark grey losses, light grey games against teams outside the FBS.
Source: ESPN results, read 28 September 2026; cross-checked with Nucleus for games up to its 23 September pull.

Northwestern is 2-1. Against FBS teams it is 1-1, scoring 32.0 points a game and allowing 18.0. It lost 29-23 at Indiana on 25 September. Its other win was 34-18 over South Dakota State, a team outside the FBS.

This is a Big Ten game, and both teams are 0-1 in the conference.

Last season

Penn State went 7-6 in 2025 and won by 10.5 points a game, and went 2-3 on the road. Its season ended with a 22-10 win over Clemson on 27 December, at a neutral site.

2025 point margin in every game, Northwestern and Penn State2025: point margin in every game, bowls and playoffs includedNorthwestern7-6, +3.5 a game-20+35-20+3+35+1+19-7-21-2+3-7+27Penn State7-6, +10.5 a game+35+34+46-6-5-1-1-24-3+18+27+4+12Oldest game on the left. Light grey bars are games against teams outside the FBS.
Source: ESPN results, read 28 September 2026.

Northwestern went 7-6 and won by 3.5 a game, and went 5-2 at home. It ended with a 34-7 win over Central Michigan on 26 December. The two teams met on 11 October 2025, and Northwestern won 22-21 at Penn State.

The price

Penn State opened at -7 and is -2.5 now, read 28 September 2026 at 17:02 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. That is a 4.5-point move toward Northwestern. Penn State -2.5 is priced at -115, Northwestern +2.5 at -105.

Northwestern opened +7 and is +2.5 nowNorthwestern's line, from the open to nowpickopen +7now +2.5Negative numbers mean Northwestern is giving points. The line has moved 4.5 points toward Northwestern.
Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-09-28 17:02 UTC.

The moneyline has Penn State at -142 and Northwestern at +120, from -278 and +225 at the open. With the margin removed, that prices Penn State to win 56.3% of the time. ESPN’s FPI has Penn State at 55.9%.

Moneyline implies Penn State 56.3 percent, Northwestern 43.7 percentChance to win the game, as pricedPenn State 56.3%Northwestern 43.7%From DraftKings's moneylines, Penn State -142 and Northwestern +120, margin removed.
Source: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-09-28 17:02 UTC.

The market has already come 4.5 points toward our number. At the open the gap was 11.3; it is 6.8 now.

Pick: Northwestern +2.5

Northwestern +2.5 at -105. The gap is 6.8 points against a 3-point threshold.

It rests on 13 games, split 7 and 6. Penn State’s 25.2-point margin this season is the case against it, and three of the four games behind that number were at home.

What changes it

A move that makes Northwestern the favourite. At Northwestern -1 the gap is 3.3 and the bet stands. At Northwestern -1.5 it is 2.8, and the call becomes a pass.

Availability is the other thing, and this page does not state it. Check the injury report before you bet.

The total

The total opened at 48.5 and is 45.5 now, a 3-point drop. The over is -108 and the under -112.

Game totals for Northwestern and Penn State against 45.5Total points in every game against FBS teams, 2025 and 2026, against this game's 45.5102030405060708045.5Northwestern8 of 14 over 45.5Penn State9 of 16 over 45.5Each dot is one game against an FBS team. Dots stack where games had the same total.
Source: ESPN results, read 28 September 2026; cross-checked with Nucleus for games up to its 23 September pull. The line: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-09-28 17:02 UTC.

Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, Penn State’s games went over 45.5 in 9 of 16, and Northwestern’s in 8 of 14. This season is mixed. Penn State’s four games produced 45, 36, 68 and 44 points, one over. Northwestern’s three produced 52, 48 and 52.

Lean over 45.5, and only a lean. The longer samples point over by a game or two, and Penn State’s 2026 games point under.

Penn State at Northwestern, Friday 2 October, 8:00 PM ET, Ryan Field, Evanston. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 28 September 2026, 17:02 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 28 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.