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Michigan State Spartans

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College FootballSat 10 Oct
Illinois Fighting Illini
at
Michigan State Spartans
SpreadTotalMoneyILL-2.5U 47.5-135MSU+2.5O 47.5+114
Our call

Our number has Michigan State by 4.7. The market has it as a 2.5-point underdog. Take Michigan State +2.5.

Illinois at Michigan St · 10 OctMichigan State +2.5
Grant WellerRead the predictionIllinois at Michigan St prediction

The Michigan State Spartans lost all five road games in 2025 and beat the number in every one of them. In their six home games they covered once.

Losing, and covering, away

Michigan State closed the 2025 regular season 4-8, with seven covers and five misses. Away from home the Spartans went 0-5 on the scoreboard and 5-0 on the spread, a perfect road mark shared by three other schools. Two of the five were decided by three points: 20-23 at Minnesota getting 5.5 and 17-20 at Iowa getting 17.5.

The Spartans at home, away, as favorite and as underdogHome (6)won 3 (50.0%)covered 1 of 6 (16.7%)Away (5)won 0 (0.0%)covered 5 of 5 (100.0%)Favorite (5)won 4 (80.0%)covered 1 of 5 (20.0%)Underdog (7)won 0 (0.0%)covered 6 of 7 (85.7%)50%
2025 regular season. Neutral-site games are in neither home nor away. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

At home the order flipped

At home it went 3-3 on the scoreboard and 1-5 on the spread. The 23-6 win over Western Michigan at -22.5 and the 42-40 win over Boston College at -3.5 both missed. Four FBS programs had a worse home cover rate and 12 an identical one. The venue is the first thing we check on a Spartans spread.

Underdogs

Michigan State was an underdog seven times, lost all seven and covered six. Its moneyline in the six priced ones lost all six units. As favorites the Spartans won four of five and covered once, in the 38-28 win over Maryland at a neutral site.

The Spartans 2025 regular season, game by game2025-08-29 v Western Michigan Broncos 23-62025-09-06 v Boston College Eagles 42-402025-09-13 v Youngstown State Penguins 41-242025-09-20 at USC Trojans 31-452025-10-04 at Nebraska Cornhuskers 27-382025-10-11 v UCLA Bruins 13-382025-10-18 at Indiana Hoosiers 13-382025-10-25 v Michigan Wolverines 20-312025-11-01 at Minnesota Golden Gophers 20-232025-11-15 v Penn State Nittany Lions 10-282025-11-22 at Iowa Hawkeyes 17-202025-11-29 v Maryland Terrapins 38-28Wins above the line, losses below; bar length is the margincovered the spreaddid not cover0
4-8 in 12 games. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

The moneyline

Ten Spartans games were priced. Backing Michigan State in all ten finished 6.32 units down, a deficit only 14 FBS teams exceeded. October went 0-4 and cost 3.0 units.

One unit on the Spartans to win, every game0-6-4-2-6.32 unitsfirst gamelast game
Running total over 10 priced 2025 regular-season games, at the pre-game moneyline. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

Seven of the 12 Spartans games went over.

Questions and answers

Did Michigan State cover on the road in 2025?

In all five road games, while losing all five.

How did Michigan State do as an underdog in 2025?

0-7 on the scoreboard and 6-1 on the spread.

What did the Michigan State moneyline return in 2025?

A loss of 6.32 units over the 10 priced games.

Past games

  1. Michigan St at Wisconsin · 3 OctOur number has Wisconsin by 7.7, and the line is 10.5.
  2. Nebraska at Michigan St · 26 SepOur number has Michigan State by 4.6.
  3. Michigan St at Notre Dame · 19 SepThe Notre Dame vs Michigan State recap followed the preview’s under thesis cleanly.

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