CFB
SpreadTotalMoneyWASH+9.5U 58.5+295USC-9.5O 58.5-375
CFB · Saturday 3 October
Washington at USC Final Score: USC Win 25-21
Final: USC Trojans 25, Washington Huskies 21, Saturday 3 October at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.
Our call won. Before the game this page said: “Our number has USC by 5.5. At +8.5, take Washington.” Washington +8.5 won: Washington lost by 4.
What decided it
USC won the third quarter by 5. USC turned the ball over 1 time to Washington’s 1, and gained 360 yards to 319.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Huskies | 7 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 21 |
| USC Trojans | 3 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 25 |
The last DraftKings line ESPN holds for the game is USC -7.5, with a total of 58.5. USC did not cover as the favourite. The 46 points went under the total.
What comes next
Washington plays next at the Nebraska Cornhuskers on Saturday 31 October. USC plays next against the Ohio State Buckeyes on Saturday 31 October.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Washington at USC Best Pick, Prediction and Odds”.
Our number has USC by 5.5. At +8.5, take Washington.
No. 18 USC opened as a 10-point favorite over Washington at DraftKings and is 8.5 now. Our number is USC by 5.5. The gap is 3.0 points, and the threshold for a bet here is 3. This is the smallest edge the rule allows.
How the number is built
The method is one clause: our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, over 2025 and 2026 together.
USC is 10-1 at home against FBS teams over that span, winning by 21.5 points a game across 11 games. Washington is 3-2 on the road against FBS teams, winning by 10.6 a game across 5 games. The difference is 10.9 points. Half of it is 5.45, which rounds to 5.5.
Eleven and five games is what there is. Washington’s five are all from 2025, because it has played all four of its 2026 games at home. Four of USC’s eleven are from this season.
Washington on the road
The spread asks whether USC wins by 9 or more. In its 5 road games against FBS teams, Washington has not lost by more than 17.
It won 59-24 at Washington State, 24-20 at Maryland and 48-14 at UCLA. It lost 24-7 at Michigan and 13-10 at Wisconsin. Two of the five were decided by 4 points or fewer.
USC’s home record is the case for the favorite, and it is a strong one. USC won by 9 or more in 9 of its 11 home games against FBS teams. The two exceptions were a 26-21 win over Iowa in 2025 and a 41-27 loss to Oregon on 26 September, its only home loss in the sample. The method averages the two sides, and the average lands at 5.5.
2026 so far
USC is 4-1 and 1-1 in the Big Ten, with every game against an FBS team. It beat San José State 42-26, Fresno State 39-0 and Louisiana 49-30 at home, won 42-35 at Rutgers, then lost to Oregon. It has scored 39.8 a game and allowed 26.4.
Washington is 3-1 and 0-1 in the Big Ten. It beat Washington State 24-10 and Utah State 16-14, then Eastern Washington 48-16, a team outside the FBS, and lost 27-24 to Minnesota on 26 September. Against its three FBS opponents it has scored 21.3 a game and allowed 17.0.
Last season
USC went 9-4 in 2025, won by 12.8 a game, and went 7-0 at home. Its season ended with a 30-27 loss to TCU on 30 December, at a neutral site.
Washington went 9-4, won by 15.4 a game, and went 3-2 on the road. Its season ended with a 38-10 win over Boise State on 13 December, at a neutral site. The two teams did not meet in 2025 or so far in 2026.
The price
USC opened at -10 and is -8.5 now, read 28 September 2026 at 17:02 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. That is a 1.5-point move toward Washington. Both sides of the spread are priced at -110.
The moneyline has USC at -340 and Washington at +270, from -360 and +285 at the open. With the margin removed, that prices USC to win 74.1% of the time. ESPN’s FPI has USC at 83.8%.
USC is the likelier winner by every measure here, ours included. The disagreement is 3.0 points of margin.
Pick: Washington +8.5
Washington +8.5 at -110. The gap is 3.0 points against a 3-point threshold.
It rests on 16 games, split 11 and 5. The movement since the open has already cut the gap from 4.5 to 3.0, and there is no room left in it.
What changes it
Half a point. At Washington +8 the gap is 2.5, and the call becomes a pass. Anything above +8.5 widens the gap and the bet stands.
Availability is the other thing, and this page does not state it. Check the injury report before you bet.
The total
The total opened at 57.5 and is 57.5 now, over -115 and under -105.
Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, Washington’s games went over 57.5 in 5 of 15, and USC’s in 10 of 18. The two samples pull in opposite directions. USC’s five games this season produced 68, 39, 79, 77 and 68 points; Washington’s three against FBS teams produced 34, 30 and 51.
Pass on the total at 57.5.
The Washington Huskies and USC Trojans team pages hold both schedules and last season’s results. Every game this week is on our college football predictions page.
Washington at USC, Saturday 3 October, 7:30 PM ET, Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 28 September 2026, 17:02 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 28 September 2026. Rankings: AP Poll, Week 5, 2026. Nothing here states who is available.