Tennessee vs South Carolina Best Pick, Prediction and Odds - ScoresAndStats.com Skip to content
Scores&Stats
ES
CFB · Saturday 24 October
XFacebookWhatsAppTelegramRedditEmail

Tennessee vs South Carolina Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Grant WellerUpdated 22 Oct 2026

Our number has Tennessee by 2.2. At +2.5, take Tennessee.

No. 11 Tennessee is a 2.5-point underdog at South Carolina at DraftKings, read 22 October 2026 at 21:09 UTC. Our number has South Carolina at +2.2. The gap is 4.7 points on Tennessee’s side, and the threshold for a bet is 3.

Tennessee at South Carolina kicks off Saturday 24 October at 3:30 PM ET at Williams-Brice Stadium in Columbia. It is an SEC game, and the Tennessee vs South Carolina odds have crossed zero since the open.

The prices and what they say

DraftKings has South Carolina -2.5 at -108 and Tennessee +2.5 at -112. On the moneyline South Carolina is -135 and Tennessee +114.

Every pair of book prices carries a margin: the extra a book builds in so the two sides add to more than 100%. With it removed, the moneyline gives South Carolina a 55.1% chance to win and Tennessee 44.9%. ESPN’s FPI has it the other way round, with Tennessee at 59.9%. FPI is not part of our number, and the moneyline is context only: the method stakes the spread.

How Tennessee by 2.2 is reached

Our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road. It counts FBS opponents only, 2025 and 2026 together. Bowl and playoff games are neutral sites and stay out.

South Carolina is 3-6 at home against FBS teams over that span, with an average margin of +5.7 across 9 games. Tennessee is 5-1 on the road against FBS teams, with an average margin of +10.0 across 6 games. Half the difference puts Tennessee ahead by 2.2.

Moneyline implies Tennessee 44.9 percent, South Carolina 55.1 percentChance to win the game, as pricedTennessee 44.9%South Carolina 55.1%From DraftKings's moneylines, Tennessee +114 and South Carolina -135, margin removed.
Source: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-22 21:09 UTC.

Both samples clear the 4-game minimum. Against a spread of South Carolina -2.5, our South Carolina +2.2 leaves a gap of 4.7 points toward Tennessee.

South Carolina at home, Tennessee on the road

South Carolina’s 3-6 home record against FBS teams sits beside a positive average margin. The wins are large and the losses are close. This season’s three home FBS games show the pattern: 57-0 over Kent State on 5 September, then 41-34 to Mississippi State on 19 September and 35-34 to Kentucky on 3 October. In 2025 South Carolina was 3-4 at home in all games.

Tennessee’s road half is the smaller one, 6 games. Two are from this season: 45-24 at Georgia Tech on 12 September and 24-17 at Arkansas on 10 October. In 2025 Tennessee was 3-1 on the road. Six games is enough to clear the rule and not much more. A single bad road afternoon would move that +10.0 average more than any one game moves South Carolina’s 9.

The halves left out are South Carolina’s road games and Tennessee’s home games. South Carolina lost 49-18 at Alabama and won 38-19 at Florida this season. Tennessee is 4-1 at home this season, the one loss 20-17 to Texas. Neither enters the number.

This season so far

None of this section is in our number. Tennessee is 6-1, 3-1 in the SEC, ranked 11th in the AP Poll (Week 8), and has won three in a row. It scores 33.4 points a game and allows 14.7, a margin of +18.7. Against its six FBS opponents the margin is +14.0. Its one win over a team outside the FBS was 56-9 over Furman. Most recently it beat Alabama 26-10 at home on 17 October.

2026 point margin in every game, South Carolina and Tennessee2026: point margin in every game so farSouth Carolina3-3, +12.2 a game+57+36-7-31-1+19Tennessee6-1, +18.7 a game+47+21+33-3+10+7+16Coloured bars are wins, dark grey losses, light grey games against teams outside the FBS.
Source: ESPN results, read 22 October 2026; cross-checked with Nucleus for games up to its 11 October pull.

South Carolina is 3-3 and 1-3 in the SEC, 2-3 against FBS teams. It scores 37.7 and allows 25.5, a margin of +12.2, and +7.4 against FBS teams. The non-FBS game was a 45-9 win over Towson. It comes in off the 38-19 win at Florida on 10 October and did not play on 17 October.

This season’s FBS margins point the same way as our number: Tennessee at +14.0, South Carolina at +7.4.

Last season and the meetings

Tennessee went 8-5 in 2025, 7-5 against FBS teams, scoring 39.8 and allowing 28.8 for a margin of +10.9. Its season ended with a 30-28 loss to Illinois on 30 December 2025 at a neutral site. That game is outside the method.

2025 point margin in every game, South Carolina and Tennessee2025: point margin in every game, bowls and playoffs includedSouth Carolina4-8, +0.6 a game+13+28-24-9+22-10-19-7-16-1+44-14Tennessee8-5, +10.9 a game+19+55-3+32+7+3-17+22-6+33+20-21-2Oldest game on the left. Light grey bars are games against teams outside the FBS.
Source: ESPN results, read 22 October 2026.

South Carolina went 4-8 in 2025, 3-8 against FBS teams, with a margin of +0.6 a game. It was 0-4 on the road and played no postseason game.

The teams have not played each other in 2025 or 2026, so no meeting enters the number.

Pick: Tennessee +2.5

Tennessee +2.5 at -112, DraftKings via ESPN, read 22 October 2026 at 21:09 UTC. The gap is 4.7 points against a 3-point threshold.

South Carolina opened at +2.5 and is -2.5 now.

South Carolina opened +2.5 and is -2.5 nowSouth Carolina's line, from the open to nowpickopen +2.5now -2.5Negative numbers mean South Carolina is giving points. The line has moved 5 points toward South Carolina.
Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-22 21:09 UTC.

The bet rests on two samples, 9 games and 6. The smaller one is Tennessee’s road half.

What kills the bet

The line. Tennessee stays a bet down to +0.8. Below that the gap falls under 3 points, and the call becomes a pass. South Carolina would need to be getting 5.2 points or more to be the bet.

The ESPN game page, read 22 October 2026 at 21:08 UTC, lists no injuries for this game. No absence changes the number. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total

The total is 50.5, down from 51.5 at the open, with the over and under both at -110.

Game totals for South Carolina and Tennessee against 50.5Total points in every game against FBS teams, 2025 and 2026, against this game's 50.53040506070809010050.5South Carolina8 of 16 over 50.5Tennessee13 of 18 over 50.5Each dot is one game against an FBS team. Dots stack where games had the same total.
Source: ESPN results, read 22 October 2026; cross-checked with Nucleus for games up to its 11 October pull. The line: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-22 21:09 UTC.

Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, South Carolina’s games went over in 8 of 16 and Tennessee’s in 13 of 18. This season the two lists split. South Carolina’s five FBS games produced 57, 75, 67, 69 and 57 points. Tennessee’s six produced 69, 51, 37, 38, 41 and 36.

No bet on the total. The method stakes the spread only, and these are counts, not a number. The bet is Tennessee +2.5.

Tennessee at South Carolina, Saturday 24 October, 3:30 PM ET, Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 22 October 2026, 21:09 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025 and 2026 seasons, checked against Nucleus. Rankings: AP Poll, Week 8, 2026. Injuries: ESPN game page, read 22 October 2026, 21:08 UTC.