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College Football · Saturday 3 October

UTSA at Rice Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Grant WellerUpdated 29 Sep 2026

Our number has UTSA by 0.4. At +10.5, take Rice.

UTSA opened as a 12.5-point favorite at Rice at DraftKings and is 10.5 now. Our number is UTSA by 0.4, which is close to no margin at all. The gap is 10.1 points, and the threshold for a bet here is 3.

How the number is built

The method is one clause: our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, over 2025 and 2026 together.

Rice is 2-5 at home against FBS teams over that span, losing by 12.1 points a game across 7 games. UTSA is 3-5 on the road against FBS teams, losing by 11.4 a game across 8 games. Rice’s -12.1 against UTSA’s -11.4 is a difference of 0.7 in UTSA’s favor. Half of it is 0.35, which rounds to 0.4.

Seven and eight games is what there is. Three of the 15 come from 2026: Rice’s 28-21 home loss to Western Michigan on 19 September, and UTSA’s 31-26 win at Texas State and 30-6 loss at Texas.

UTSA on the road

The spread asks whether UTSA wins by 11 or more. In its 8 road games against FBS teams, UTSA has done that once: 28-7 at Charlotte in 2025.

Its other two road wins were 17-16 at Colorado State in 2025 and 31-26 at Texas State this season. The five losses were 42-24 at Texas A&M, 27-21 at Temple, 55-17 at North Texas and 55-23 at South Florida, all in 2025, and 30-6 at Texas on 19 September.

Rice’s home results are the case for UTSA. Rice lost by 24 or more in 3 of its 7 home games against FBS teams: 35-9 to Houston, 38-14 to Memphis and 56-24 to North Texas, all in 2025. Its two home wins were 37-34 over UConn and 24-17 over UAB.

The last meeting was UTSA 61, Rice 13, on 11 October 2025. That was a UTSA home game, so it sits in UTSA’s home record and outside this method. This one is in Houston.

2026 so far

UTSA is 3-1. It beat UT Rio Grande Valley 45-16, a team outside the FBS, won 31-26 at Texas State, lost 30-6 at Texas, and beat Colorado State 59-45 on 26 September. Against its three FBS opponents it has scored 32.0 a game and allowed 33.7.

2026 point margin in every game, Rice and UTSA2026: point margin in every game so farRice1-3, -11.2 a game+28Houston Christian-52Notre Dame-7Western Michigan-14Fresno StateUTSA3-1, +6.0 a game+29UT Rio Grande Valley+5Texas State-24Texas+14Colorado StateColoured bars are wins, dark grey losses, light grey games against teams outside the FBS.
Source: ESPN results, read 28 September 2026; cross-checked with Nucleus for games up to its 23 September pull.

Rice is 1-3 and has lost all three games against FBS teams: 52-0 at Notre Dame, 28-21 at home to Western Michigan and 38-24 at Fresno State on 26 September. Its win was 31-3 over Houston Christian, a team outside the FBS. Against FBS teams it has scored 15.0 a game and allowed 39.3.

Both teams are in the American Conference. Neither has played a conference game this season.

Last season

UTSA went 7-6 in 2025, won by 6.7 a game, and went 2-4 on the road. Its season ended with a 57-20 win over Florida International on 26 December, at a neutral site.

2025 point margin in every game, Rice and UTSA2025: point margin in every game, bowls and playoffs includedRice5-8, -13.8 a game+2-26+21+11-8-6-48+3-24+7-32-49-31UTSA7-6, +6.7 a game-18-7+28+1-6+48-38+22-32+21+34-3+37Oldest game on the left. Light grey bars are games against teams outside the FBS.
Source: ESPN results, read 28 September 2026.

Rice went 5-8, lost by 13.8 a game, and went 3-4 at home. Its season ended with a 41-10 loss to Texas State on 2 January 2026, at a neutral site.

The price

UTSA opened at -12.5 and is -10.5 now, read 28 September 2026 at 17:02 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. That is a 2-point move toward Rice. UTSA is priced at -112 and Rice at -108.

Rice opened +12.5 and is +10.5 nowRice's line, from the open to nowpickopen +12.5now +10.5Negative numbers mean Rice is giving points. The line has moved 2 points toward Rice.
Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-09-28 17:02 UTC.

The moneyline has UTSA at -440 and Rice at +340, from -470 and +360 at the open. With the margin removed, that prices UTSA to win 78.2% of the time. ESPN’s FPI has UTSA at 81.1%.

Moneyline implies UTSA 78.2 percent, Rice 21.8 percentChance to win the game, as pricedUTSA 78.2%Rice 21.8%From DraftKings's moneylines, UTSA -440 and Rice +340, margin removed.
Source: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-09-28 17:02 UTC.

The market, FPI and our number all have UTSA as the likelier winner. Ours has it winning by less than a point.

Pick: Rice +10.5

Rice +10.5 at -108. The gap is 10.1 points against a 3-point threshold.

It rests on 15 games, split 7 and 8. The 2 points of movement since the open cut the gap from 12.1 to 10.1.

What changes it

A long way of line movement. At Rice +3.5 the gap is 3.1 and the bet stands. At +3 it is 2.6, and the call becomes a pass.

Availability is the other thing, and this page does not state it. Check the injury report before you bet.

The total

The total opened at 52.5 and is 54.5 now, over -115 and under -105. That is a 2-point rise.

Game totals for Rice and UTSA against 54.5Total points in every game against FBS teams, 2025 and 2026, against this game's 54.5203040506070809010011054.5Rice5 of 15 over 54.5UTSA10 of 15 over 54.5Each dot is one game against an FBS team. Dots stack where games had the same total.
Source: ESPN results, read 28 September 2026; cross-checked with Nucleus for games up to its 23 September pull. The line: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-09-28 17:02 UTC.

Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, UTSA’s games went over 54.5 in 10 of 15, and Rice’s in 5 of 15. The two samples pull in opposite directions. UTSA’s four games this season produced 61, 57, 36 and 104 points; Rice’s produced 34, 52, 49 and 62.

Pass on the total at 54.5.

The UTSA Roadrunners and Rice Owls team pages hold both schedules and last season’s results. Every game this week is on our college football predictions page.

UTSA at Rice, Saturday 3 October, 7:00 PM ET, Rice Stadium, Houston. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 28 September 2026, 17:02 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 28 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.