College Football
College Football · Saturday 10 October
UAB at Memphis Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Our number has Memphis by 10.5. Memphis is a bet at -7.5 or shorter, UAB at +13.5 or longer.
No spread had been posted for this game at DraftKings when we read ESPN on 28 September 2026. Our number is Memphis by 10.5, and a side is a bet only when the spread sits at least 3 points from it.
How the number is built
The method is one clause: our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, 2025 and 2026 together.
Memphis is 4-2 at home against FBS teams over that span, winning by 7.2 points a game across 6 games. UAB is 1-7 on the road against FBS teams, losing by 13.9 a game across 8 games. The difference is 21.0 points. Half of it, rounded, is 10.5.
Both samples clear the 4-game minimum. One of Memphis’s six games is from 2026, and two of UAB’s eight.
UAB on the road
UAB’s one road win in the span was 31-24 at Tulsa on 29 November 2025. The seven losses were 38-24 at Navy, 56-24 at Tennessee, 53-33 at Florida Atlantic, 38-19 at UConn and 24-17 at Rice in 2025, then 42-23 at Illinois on 3 September and 21-14 at Louisiana on 19 September.
Five of the seven losses were by 14 or more. The 32-point loss at Tennessee is the largest, and without it the other seven road games average -11.3, a sum of -79 over 7.
Memphis at home
Memphis won 32-31 over Arkansas, 45-7 over Tulsa and 34-31 over South Florida in 2025, then 42-24 over Arkansas State on 5 September. It lost 38-32 to Tulane and 28-17 to Navy in 2025.
The 38-point win over Tulsa carries the average. Without it the other five home games average +1.0, a sum of 5 over 5, and our number would be Memphis by 7.4.
2026 so far
UAB is 2-2, all against FBS teams. It lost 42-23 at Illinois, beat UL Monroe 26-20, lost 21-14 at Louisiana and beat Navy 24-20 on 25 September. It has scored 21.8 points a game and allowed 25.8, and it is 1-0 in the American Conference.
Memphis is 3-1. It won 27-21 at UNLV, beat Arkansas State 42-24, lost 38-20 at Boise State and beat UT Martin 45-21, a team outside the FBS, on 19 September. Against its three FBS opponents it has scored 29.7 a game and allowed 27.7.
Last season
Memphis went 8-5 in 2025 and won by 9.3 a game. Its season ended with a 31-7 loss to NC State on 19 December, at a neutral site.
UAB went 4-8 and was outscored by 11.8 a game, going 1-5 on the road. The two teams met once: UAB won 31-24 at home on 18 October 2025.
The price
There is none yet, for the spread, the total or the moneyline.
ESPN’s FPI gives Memphis an 87.2% chance to win. That agrees with our number on the winner. It says nothing about the margin a spread would ask for.
Pick: Memphis -7.5 or shorter, UAB +13.5 or longer
Until a line is posted, this is the call. At Memphis -7.5 the gap is 3.0 and Memphis is the bet. At UAB +13.5 the gap is 3.0 and UAB is the bet.
From Memphis -8 to -13 the market sits within 3 points of our 10.5, and the call is a pass. It rests on 14 games, split 6 and 8.
What changes it
The posted line decides the side, and the full page re-reads it the week of the game.
The Tulsa result is the soft spot in a Memphis bet. Without it our number drops to 7.4, and Memphis -7.5 would no longer be a bet. This page does not state who is available, so check the injury report before you bet.
UAB at Memphis, Saturday 10 October, kickoff time listed as TBD by ESPN on 28 September 2026, Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis. Prices: none posted at DraftKings via ESPN, read 28 September 2026. Results: ESPN, read 28 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.