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Utah State vs Texas State Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Grant WellerUpdated 23 Oct 2026

Our number has Texas State by 11.6. At 13.5, that is no bet.

Texas State is a 13.5-point favorite over Utah State at DraftKings. Our number is Texas State by 11.6, which leaves a 1.9-point gap on Utah State’s side. A bet needs 3 points. The price is close enough to right that there is nothing to take.

The prices and what they say

Utah State at Texas State kicks off Saturday 24 October at 7:30 PM ET at UFCU Stadium in San Marcos. It is a conference game. DraftKings has Texas State -13.5 at -118 and Utah State +13.5 at -102, read 24 October 2026 at 00:16 UTC. The line opened at Texas State -9.5.

Texas State opened -9.5 and is -13.5 nowTexas State's line, from the open to nowpickopen -9.5now -13.5Negative numbers mean Texas State is giving points. The line has moved 4 points toward Texas State.
Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-24 00:16 UTC.

The moneyline is Texas State -535 and Utah State +400. A book builds in a margin, the extra that makes the two prices add to more than 100%. With the margin taken out, those prices give Texas State 80.8% to win and Utah State 19.2%. ESPN’s FPI has it at 76% and 24%.

How Texas State by 11.6 is reached

The method in one clause: half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, over 2025 and 2026 together. Bowl games are played at neutral sites, so they are left out of both halves.

Texas State is 5-3 at home against FBS teams over that span, winning by 9.2 points a game. Utah State is 1-8 on the road against FBS teams, losing by 13.9 a game. Half the difference is 11.6. Against a spread of 13.5, the gap is 1.9 points toward Utah State.

Moneyline implies Utah State 19.2 percent, Texas State 80.8 percentChance to win the game, as pricedUtah State 19.2%Texas State 80.8%From DraftKings's moneylines, Utah State +400 and Texas State -535, margin removed.
Source: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-24 00:16 UTC.

The base is 17 games, 8 for Texas State and 9 for Utah State. Both clear the 4-game minimum. The rule asks for a 3-point gap, and 1.9 falls short of it.

This season so far

Nothing in this section is in our number. Texas State is 3-3, 1-1 in conference and 3-1 at home, on a one-game winning streak. Against FBS teams it is 2-3 with an average margin of -1.2. Across all six games it scores 40.0 points and allows 32.2, a margin of +7.8, lifted by a 63-10 win over Incarnate Word, a team outside the FBS, on 26 September.

Utah State is 2-4, 1-1 in conference and 2-1 at home, also on a one-game winning streak. Against FBS teams it is 2-3 with an average margin of -8.4. It scores 14.5 points a game and allows 23.5. Its season opened with a 29-17 home loss to Idaho State, a team outside the FBS, on 5 September.

2026 point margin in every game, Texas State and Utah State2026: point margin in every game so farTexas State3-3, +7.8 a game-52-5+14+53-2+39Utah State2-4, -9.0 a game-12-2-33+11-19+1Coloured bars are wins, dark grey losses, light grey games against teams outside the FBS.
Source: ESPN results, read 23 October 2026; cross-checked with Nucleus for games up to its 11 October pull.

The most recent results: Texas State beat Colorado State 66-27 at home on Thursday 15 October. Utah State beat Washington State 17-16 at home on Friday 9 October.

Texas State at home, Utah State on the road

Texas State’s three home games against FBS teams this season are inside the number: a 31-26 loss to UTSA on 12 September, a 49-35 win over North Texas on 19 September and the 66-27 win over Colorado State. The rest of its 5-3 home sample is from 2025.

Utah State’s three road games against FBS teams this season are all losses: 16-14 at Washington on 12 September, 33-0 at Utah on 19 September and 37-18 at Boise State on 3 October. In 2025 it went 1-5 on the road. The road half of our number is the weaker team’s worst setting, and it is the half that holds the price up.

The halves the method leaves out point the same way. Texas State lost 59-7 at Texas on 5 September and 31-29 at San Diego State on 3 October, and went 2-4 on the road in 2025. Utah State is 2-1 at home this season and went 5-1 at home in 2025. Neither team’s other half is in the number.

Last season and the meetings

Texas State went 7-6 in 2025, 6-6 against FBS teams, with an average margin of +7.5. It beat Rice 41-10 at a neutral site on 2 January 2026. Utah State went 6-7, 5-7 against FBS teams, at +2.2 a game, and lost 34-21 to Washington State at a neutral site on 22 December 2025.

2025 point margin in every game, Texas State and Utah State2025: point margin in every game, bowls and playoffs includedTexas State7-6, +7.5 a game+25+7-19+32-1-7-3-32-3+27+17+23+31Utah State6-7, +2.2 a game+12-22+19+41-20-18+5-19+37-3+11-1-13Oldest game on the left. Light grey bars are games against teams outside the FBS.
Source: ESPN results, read 23 October 2026.

The two teams have not met in 2025 or 2026. There is no game between them inside our number.

Pick: No bet

No bet on either side of Texas State -13.5. The gap is 1.9 points against a 3-point threshold.

The price is Texas State -13.5 at -118 and Utah State +13.5 at -102 at DraftKings, read 24 October 2026 at 00:16 UTC. It opened at Texas State -9.5. Our 11.6 sits between the opening line and the current one, and neither is far enough from it to clear 3 points.

What kills the bet

There is no bet to kill. The line would have to move to make one. Utah State becomes the bet at +14.6 or longer. Texas State becomes the bet at -8.6 or shorter.

The injury list on ESPN’s game page, read 24 October 2026 at 00:16 UTC, carries no entries for either team. That is not a statement that everyone plays. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total and the moneyline

The total is 60.5, up from 58.5 at the open. The over is -115 and the under -105. Our method stakes the spread only, so there is no bet on the total. What follows is a count.

Game totals for Texas State and Utah State against 60.5Total points in every game against FBS teams, 2025 and 2026, against this game's 60.53040506070809010060.5Texas State11 of 17 over 60.5Utah State5 of 17 over 60.5Each dot is one game against an FBS team. Dots stack where games had the same total.
Source: ESPN results, read 23 October 2026; cross-checked with Nucleus for games up to its 11 October pull. The line: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-24 00:16 UTC.

Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, Texas State’s games went over 60.5 in 11 of 17, and Utah State’s in 5 of 17. This season Texas State’s five FBS games produced 66, 57, 84, 60 and 93 points. Utah State’s produced 30, 33, 31, 55 and 33. The two counts pull in opposite directions, and five games a side proves nothing.

The moneyline is context only. At Texas State -535 and Utah State +400, the market’s 80.8% for Texas State is above FPI’s 76%. Our method does not price the moneyline, and that gap is not a bet.

Utah State at Texas State, Saturday 24 October, 7:30 PM ET, UFCU Stadium, San Marcos. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 October 2026, 00:16 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025 and 2026 seasons, checked against Nucleus. Rankings: AP Poll, Week 8, 2026. Injuries: ESPN game page, read 24 October 2026, 00:16 UTC.