CFB
SpreadTotalMoneyWVU+3U 53.5+130ISU-3O 53.5-155
CFB · Saturday 3 October
West Virginia at Iowa State Final Score: Iowa State Win 45-42
Final: Iowa State Cyclones 45, West Virginia Mountaineers 42, Saturday 3 October at Jack Trice Stadium.
Our call lost. Before the game this page said: “Our number has Iowa State by 11.2. At -3.5, take Iowa State.” Iowa State -3.5 lost: Iowa State won by 3.
What decided it
Iowa State won the second quarter by 7. Iowa State turned the ball over 1 time to West Virginia’s 2, and gained 577 yards to 518.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Virginia Mountaineers | 7 | 7 | 14 | 14 | 42 |
| Iowa State Cyclones | 7 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 45 |
The last DraftKings line ESPN holds for the game is ISU -3, with a total of 53.5. Iowa State pushed as the favourite. The 87 points went over the total.
What comes next
West Virginia plays next at the Texas Tech Red Raiders on Saturday 7 November. Iowa State plays next against the Oklahoma State Cowboys on Saturday 31 October.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “West Virginia at Iowa State Best Pick, Prediction and Odds”.
Our number has Iowa State by 11.2. At -3.5, take Iowa State.
Iowa State opened as a 1.5-point favorite over West Virginia at DraftKings and is 3.5 now. Our number is Iowa State by 11.2. The gap is 7.7 points, and the threshold for a bet here is 3.
How the number is built
The method is one clause: our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, over 2025 and 2026 together.
Iowa State is 4-3 at home against FBS teams over that span, winning by 9.6 points a game across 7 games. West Virginia is 1-5 on the road against FBS teams, losing by 12.7 a game across 6 games. The difference between +9.6 and -12.7 is 22.3 points. Half of it is 11.15, which rounds to 11.2.
Seven and six games is what there is. West Virginia’s six are all from 2025. Its 38-27 win over Virginia on 19 September was at a neutral site, so the method leaves it out, and its other three games this season were at home.
West Virginia on the road
The spread asks whether Iowa State wins by 4 or more. West Virginia lost by 4 or more in 4 of its 6 road games against FBS teams: 17-10 at Ohio, 41-10 at Kansas, 38-24 at BYU and 45-13 at UCF.
The other two were a 25-23 loss at Arizona State and a 45-35 win at Houston, its one road win in the sample. All six are from 2025, when West Virginia went 4-8.
Iowa State’s home number leans on one game: 55-7 over Bowling Green on 19 September. Take it out and the other six average a 3.2-point win. Its home losses were 41-27 to BYU and 24-19 to Arizona State in 2025, and 31-17 to Utah on 26 September. Its other wins were 16-13 over Iowa, 39-14 over Arizona and 38-14 over Kansas.
Without the Bowling Green game, our number is half of 3.17 plus 12.67, or Iowa State by 7.9. Against -3.5, that is still a gap of 4.4.
2026 so far
Iowa State is 2-2 and 0-1 in the Big 12. It beat Southeast Missouri State 38-10, a team outside the FBS, lost 16-13 at Iowa, beat Bowling Green 55-7, then lost 31-17 at home to Utah. Against its three FBS opponents it has scored 28.3 a game and allowed 18.0.
West Virginia is 3-1 and 0-1 in the Big 12. It beat Coastal Carolina 31-24 and UT Martin 52-7, a team outside the FBS, beat Virginia 38-27 at a neutral site, and lost 41-24 at home to Oklahoma State on 26 September. Against FBS teams it has scored 31.0 a game and allowed 30.7.
Last season
Iowa State went 8-4 in 2025, won by 7.2 a game, and went 4-2 at home. It played no postseason game.
West Virginia went 4-8, lost by 9.1 a game, and went 1-5 on the road. The two teams did not meet in 2025 or so far in 2026.
The price
Iowa State opened at -1.5 and is -3.5 now, read 28 September 2026 at 17:02 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. That is a 2-point move toward Iowa State. Iowa State is priced at -102 and West Virginia at -118.
The moneyline has Iowa State at -162 and West Virginia at +136, from -115 and -105 at the open. With the margin removed, that prices Iowa State to win 59.3% of the time. ESPN’s FPI has Iowa State at 62.3%.
The market, FPI and our number agree on the winner. They disagree on the margin by 7.7 points.
Pick: Iowa State -3.5
Iowa State -3.5 at -102. The gap is 7.7 points against a 3-point threshold.
It rests on 13 games, split 7 and 6. The 2 points of movement since the open cut the gap from 9.7 to 7.7.
What changes it
More movement toward Iowa State. At -8 the gap is 3.2 and the bet stands. At -8.5 it is 2.7, and the call becomes a pass.
Availability is the other thing, and this page does not state it. Check the injury report before you bet.
The total
The total opened at 53.5 and is 52.5 now, over -108 and under -112. That is a 1-point drop.
Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, West Virginia’s games went over 52.5 in 8 of 14, and Iowa State’s in 4 of 14. The two samples pull in opposite directions. West Virginia’s three FBS games this season produced 55, 65 and 65 points; Iowa State’s produced 29, 62 and 48.
Pass on the total at 52.5.
The West Virginia Mountaineers and Iowa State Cyclones team pages hold both schedules and last season’s results. Every game this week is on our college football predictions page.
West Virginia at Iowa State, Saturday 3 October, 12:00 PM ET, Jack Trice Stadium, Ames. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 28 September 2026, 17:02 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 28 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.