CFB
SpreadTotalMoneyWYO+17.5U 45.5+700NDSU-17.5O 45.5-1100
CFB · Saturday 3 October
Wyoming at North Dakota State Final Score: North Dakota State Win 28-0
Final: North Dakota State Bison 28, Wyoming Cowboys 0, Saturday 3 October at Fargodome.
Our call was no bet. Before the game this page said: “Our number has North Dakota State by 19.5, a point from the line. No bet.”
What decided it
North Dakota State won the second quarter by 10. North Dakota State turned the ball over 1 time to Wyoming’s 1, and gained 407 yards to 162.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wyoming Cowboys | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| North Dakota State Bison | 7 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 28 |
The last DraftKings line ESPN holds for the game is NDSU -17.5, with a total of 44.5. North Dakota State covered as the favourite. The 28 points went under the total.
What comes next
Wyoming plays next at the UNLV Rebels on Saturday 7 November. North Dakota State plays next against the UTEP Miners on Saturday 31 October.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Wyoming at North Dakota State Best Pick, Prediction and Odds”.
Our number has North Dakota State by 19.5, a point from the line. No bet.
North Dakota State opened as a 21-point favorite over Wyoming at DraftKings and is 18.5 now. Our number is North Dakota State by 19.5. The gap is 1.0 point, under the 3-point threshold for a bet. There is a second reason to pass, and it would hold at any price: North Dakota State’s home sample is one game.
How the number is built
The method is one clause: our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, over 2025 and 2026 together.
North Dakota State is 1-0 at home against FBS teams over that span. The one game was a 33-7 win over Jacksonville State on 29 August, a margin of 26.0. Wyoming is 1-7 on the road against FBS teams, losing by 13.0 a game across 8 games. The difference between +26.0 and -13.0 is 39.0 points. Half of it is 19.5.
One game proves little, and the method does not bet on fewer than 4 in either sample. North Dakota State played no FBS team in 2025: all 13 of its games were against teams outside the FBS. This season it is in the Mountain West Conference, and three of its four games have been against FBS teams.
Wyoming on the road
Wyoming’s one road win in the sample was 10-0 at Akron in 2025. The other 2025 road games were losses: 37-20 at Colorado, 24-21 at Air Force, 24-7 at San Diego State, 24-3 at Fresno State and 27-7 at Hawai’i.
This season it lost 35-13 at Colorado State and 24-10 at Central Michigan. It lost by 19 or more, the margin North Dakota State needs to cover, in 3 of the 8: at Fresno State, at Hawai’i and at Colorado State.
North Dakota State has won all three of its games against FBS teams, all this season: 33-7 over Jacksonville State at home, 38-32 at Air Force and 31-10 at Sacramento State. Two of those were on the road, so the method leaves them out.
2026 so far
North Dakota State is 4-0 and 1-0 in the Mountain West. Besides the three FBS games, it beat Fordham 38-0, a team outside the FBS. Its last game was on 19 September. Against its three FBS opponents it has scored 34.0 a game and allowed 16.3.
Wyoming is 2-2 and 1-0 in the Mountain West. It lost 35-13 at Colorado State, beat Northern Colorado 21-13, a team outside the FBS, lost 24-10 at Central Michigan, and beat Hawai’i 27-10 at home on 26 September. Against its three FBS opponents it has scored 16.7 a game and allowed 23.0.
Last season
North Dakota State went 12-1 in 2025 and won by 28.1 a game, against teams outside the FBS. Its one loss was 29-28 to Illinois State, at home on 6 December.
Wyoming went 4-8, lost by 4.5 a game, and went 1-5 on the road. The two teams did not meet in 2025 or so far in 2026.
The price
North Dakota State opened at -21 and is -18.5 now, read 28 September 2026 at 17:02 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. That is a 2.5-point move toward Wyoming. Both sides of the spread are priced at -110.
The moneyline has North Dakota State at -1350 and Wyoming at +800, from -1800 and +1000 at the open. With the margin removed, that prices North Dakota State to win 89.3% of the time. ESPN’s FPI has North Dakota State at 91.6%.
Our 19.5 sits between the opening line of 21 and today’s 18.5. On the number alone, the market and the method agree to within a point and a half.
Pick: no bet
No bet on the side. The gap is 1.0 point against a 3-point threshold, and North Dakota State’s home sample is 1 game against a minimum of 4.
Wyoming’s side of the sample is 8 games. The other side is what is missing.
What changes it
On price alone, the gap reaches 3 at North Dakota State -16.5 or at Wyoming +22.5. Neither price would make this a bet, because the one-game sample stays one game.
It becomes a bet only when North Dakota State has 4 home games against FBS teams in the sample and the line is past one of those two numbers. Availability also matters, and this page does not state it.
The total
The total opened at 47.5 and is 45.5 now, over -112 and under -108. That is a 2-point drop.
Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, Wyoming’s games went under 45.5 in 10 of 14, and North Dakota State’s in 2 of 3. Wyoming’s three FBS games this season produced 48, 34 and 37 points; North Dakota State’s produced 40, 70 and 41. Three games prove little, and the lean rests on Wyoming’s 14.
Lean under 45.5. Not a bet.
The Wyoming Cowboys and North Dakota State Bison team pages hold both schedules and last season’s results. Every game this week is on our college football predictions page.
Wyoming at North Dakota State, Saturday 3 October, 3:30 PM ET, Fargodome, Fargo. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 28 September 2026, 17:02 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 28 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.