NHL
NHL · Tuesday 20 October
Ducks vs Islanders Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Ducks at +130. The price makes Anaheim 41.7%, we make it 46.3%, and a 4.6-point gap is short of our bar of 5.
The New York Islanders are -155 and the Anaheim Ducks +130 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 58.3% for New York and 41.7% for Anaheim. Both numbers have the Islanders as the home favourite. Ours has them as a smaller one, but not by enough to bet.
How 53.7% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Games at a neutral site are in neither half, and neither team had one.
The Islanders went 22-17-2 at UBS Arena, a 53.7% home win rate over 41 games. The Ducks went 19-20-2 on the road and lost 22 of 41, also 53.7%. Both halves land on the same number, so our figure is 53.7% for New York and 46.3% for Anaheim.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -155 and +130 they come to 104.3%. Taken out, the Islanders are 58.3% and the Ducks 41.7%.
Every input is from 2025-26: 41 Islanders home games and 41 Ducks road games. This season has started for both and none of it is in the figures. The Islanders are 4-3-1, 3-1-0 at home, and won 4-1 in Toronto on Saturday. The Ducks are 4-3-0 and lost 4-2 at home to Boston on Friday. They play the Rangers at Madison Square Garden on Monday night, so Tuesday is the second game of a back-to-back.
New York at home, Anaheim on the road
The Islanders at home scored 2.93 a game and allowed 2.98, a deficit of 0.05. The Ducks on the road scored 3.12 and allowed 3.54, a deficit of 0.42.
The halves the method leaves out: New York on the road went 21-17-3, a 51.2% win rate, scoring 2.76 and allowing 2.90. Anaheim at home went 24-13-4, 58.5%, scoring 3.54 and allowing 3.49. The Ducks were a much better team in their own arena than away from it.
Over the full season these two finished one point apart. The Ducks went 43-33-6 with 92 points and were outscored by 15, then beat Edmonton 4-2 in the playoffs before losing 4-2 to Vegas. The Islanders went 43-34-5 with 91 points, were outscored by 8, and missed the playoffs.
Both teams won the close ones. The Islanders went 27-11-5 in one-goal games and won 14 of the 19 that went past regulation. Anaheim went 24-6-6 in one-goal games and won 17 of its 23 past 60 minutes.
The teams split their two meetings in 2025-26. The Islanders’ 5-2 win at UBS Arena on 11 December is in both halves of our number. Anaheim’s 5-1 win at home on 4 March is in neither.
Pick: No bet on the Ducks +130
Pass on the moneyline. The gap is 4.6 points toward Anaheim, against a threshold of 5.
The line opened at Islanders -170 and Ducks +142 and has moved toward Anaheim since. It read -155 and +130 on 19 October 2026 at 22:14 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN.
What changes it
A longer Anaheim price. At +143 or longer the Ducks are a bet whatever New York is priced at.
For the Islanders to become the bet, they would have to be +106 or longer. They are -155.
The schedule is the other unknown. Anaheim plays in Manhattan the night before, and teams often change goalies on the second night of a back-to-back. Lukas Dostal has played six of the Ducks’ games this season and Ville Husso two. Ilya Sorokin has played six of the Islanders’ games and Semyon Varlamov two. ESPN does not name a starter for Tuesday, and no goalie is on either team’s injury list.
The Islanders list Calum Ritchie and Matias Maccelli as out, and Alexander Romanov and Mathew Barzal on injured reserve. Anaheim lists Ian Moore, Ryan Poehling and Troy Terry on injured reserve. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over +114 and under -135. The Islanders’ games went over 6.5 in 36 of 82, the Ducks’ in 49 of 82. New York’s home games averaged 5.91 goals, Anaheim’s road games 6.66.
That is 43.9% and 59.8%, an average of 51.8% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 44.9% and the under at 55.1%, so our number leans to the over by 7.0 points. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean: Over 6.5 at +114.
The puck line leans to Anaheim. New York is -1.5 at +145 and Anaheim +1.5 at -175, which is 39.1% and 60.9% without the margin. Over the full season the Islanders won by two goals or more in 16 of 82 games, and the Ducks lost by two or more in 27 of 82. Averaged, Islanders -1.5 lands 26.2% of the time against 39.1% priced, 12.9 points short. That is a lean to Ducks +1.5 at -175. The call on the game stays no bet.
Ducks at Islanders, Tuesday 20 October, 7:00 PM ET, UBS Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 19 October 2026, 22:14 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs; 2026-27 games from ESPN’s team schedules, read 19 October 2026. Injury list and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 19 October 2026, 22:15 UTC.