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Red Wings vs Flames Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Tyler WilliamsUpdated 23 Oct 2026

Bet the Flames at +124. Our number makes Calgary a 53.7% winner at home, against the 42.8% the price gives them.

The Calgary Flames are +124 and the Detroit Red Wings -148 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 42.8% for Calgary and 57.2% for Detroit. The market has the visitors as a clear favourite. Our number has the Flames ahead, by 10.9 points against the price.

How 53.7% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out.

The Flames went 23-13-5 at Scotiabank Saddledome, a 56.1% home win rate. The Red Wings went 20-15-6 on the road, a 51.2% road loss rate once overtime and shootout losses count as losses. Average the two and Calgary is 53.7%, Detroit 46.3%. That is 10.9 points better for the Flames than the price.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At +124 and -148 the two come to 104.3%. Taken out, the Flames are 42.8% and the Red Wings 57.2%.

Our number gives Flames 53.7 percent, the market 42.8 percentRed Wings at Flames: chance to win, ours against the market'sOur numberlast season, home and roadRed Wings 46.3%Flames 53.7%The marketmoneyline, margin removedRed Wings 57.2%Flames 42.8%Moneylines: Red Wings -148, Flames +124. A side is a bet when the two differ by 5 points or more.
Source: ESPN results, 2025-26 regular season, read 23 October 2026. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-24 00:40 UTC.

Every input is from 2025-26, and this season is outside the method. Calgary is 3-6-0, 2-3-0 at home, and beat Minnesota 2-1 on Thursday 22 October. Dustin Wolf has played five of its games and Devin Cooley four. Detroit is 4-3-3, 1-0-2 on the road, and won 5-2 in Vancouver on Thursday. John Gibson has played seven of its games, Daniil Tarasov four and Michal Postava one.

Calgary at home, Detroit on the road

The Flames at home scored 2.93 a game and allowed 2.61, a surplus of 0.32. The Red Wings on the road scored 2.78 and allowed 2.95, a deficit of 0.17. This is the matchup the method measures: a team that was better than its opponents in its own arena against a visitor that was outscored away from home.

Flames at home and Red Wings on the road in 2025-262025-26: Flames at home against Red Wings on the roadGoals scored per gameFlames at home 2.93Red Wings on the road 2.78Goals allowed per gameFlames at home 2.61Red Wings on the road 2.95RecordFlames at home 23-13-5Red Wings on the road 20-15-6Flames: 41 home games. Red Wings: 41 road games. Neutral-site games are left out.
Source: ESPN results, 2025-26 regular season, read 23 October 2026.

The halves the method leaves out point the other way for Calgary. On the road the Flames went 11-26-4, a 26.8% win rate, scoring 2.24 and allowing 3.71. Detroit at home went 21-16-4, a 51.2% win rate, scoring 3.10 and allowing 3.34. Calgary’s away form was poor, and it is not in our number.

The season around it

Neither team made the playoffs in 2025-26. Detroit went 41-31-10 with 92 points and was outscored by 17. Calgary went 34-39-9 with 77 points and was outscored by 47. Over the full season the Flames scored 2.59 a game and allowed 3.16. The Red Wings scored 2.94 and allowed 3.15.

2025-26 goal margin in every game, Flames and Red Wings2025-26 regular season: goal margin in every gameFlames34-39-9-0.57 goals a gameRed Wings41-31-10-0.21 goals a gameColoured bars are wins, grey bars are losses, first game on the left. A shootout counts as one goal.
Source: ESPN results, 2025-26 regular season, read 23 October 2026. Record is wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses.

Detroit was strong in close games. The Red Wings went 18-5-10 in one-goal games and won 11 of the 21 that went past regulation. Calgary went 14-6-9 in one-goal games and won 7 of its 16 past 60 minutes. The Flames lost by two goals or more in 33 of 82 games; the Red Wings in 26 of 82.

Detroit won both meetings in 2025-26. The 4-3 Red Wings win in Calgary on Wednesday 10 December 2025 is inside both halves of our number. The 5-2 Red Wings win in Detroit on Monday 16 March 2026 is in neither.

Pick: Flames +124

Bet the Flames on the moneyline at +124. Our threshold is 5 points: a side is a bet only when our number and the market’s differ by at least that much. The gap here is 10.9 points toward Calgary.

The line read Flames +124 and Red Wings -148 on 24 October 2026 at 00:40 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Flames +114 and Red Wings -135. Since opening, the market gives the Red Wings 2.1 points more than it did, 57.2% against 55.1% at the open.

What kills the bet

A shorter Calgary price kills it. At +106 or longer the Flames are a bet whatever Detroit is priced at. Against the Red Wings at -148, they stay a bet down to -131.

For the Red Wings to become the bet, they would have to be +142 or longer whatever Calgary’s price. Against the Flames at +124, they would need +218. They are -148.

The rest is on the ice. ESPN’s injury list for Detroit has both goalies who have started this season, Gibson (upper body) and Tarasov (undisclosed), as day-to-day. It has Simon Edvinsson (contract dispute), Mason Appleton (undisclosed) and Marco Kasper (upper body) on injured reserve. Calgary lists Mikael Backlund as day-to-day with an upper-body injury, and Samuel Honzek and Jonathan Huberdeau on injured reserve. None of these changes our number. Who starts in goal for Detroit is the thing to watch. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total and the puck line

The total is 5.5, over -130 and under +110. The Flames’ games went over 5.5 in 43 of 82, a 52.4% rate. The Red Wings’ games went over in 49 of 82, a 59.8% rate. Calgary’s home games averaged 5.54 goals, Detroit’s road games 5.73.

2025-26 game totals for Flames and Red Wings2025-26: total goals in every game, against this game's 5.501234567891011125.5Flamesover 5.5 in 43 of 82Red Wingsover 5.5 in 49 of 82Each dot is one 2025-26 regular-season game. Dots stack where games had the same total.
Source: ESPN results, 2025-26 regular season, read 23 October 2026. A shootout winner counts as one goal. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-24 00:40 UTC.

The same averaging puts the over at 56.1%. With the margin removed the over is priced at 54.3% and the under at 45.7%, so our number leans to the over by 1.8 points. That is under the 5-point threshold. Pass on the total.

On the puck line, Detroit is -1.5 at +170 and Calgary +1.5 at -205, which is 35.5% and 64.5% without the margin. The Red Wings won by two goals or more in 23 of 82 games, and the Flames lost by two or more in 33 of 82. On those rates Red Wings -1.5 lands 34.1% of the time against 35.5% priced, a gap of 1.4 points toward Flames +1.5. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean on the same side, and a thin one. One bet on this game: the Flames at +124.

Red Wings at Flames, Saturday 24 October, 10:00 PM ET, Scotiabank Saddledome. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 October 2026, 00:40 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 24 October 2026, 00:40 UTC.