NHL
NHL · Tuesday 20 October
Kings vs Capitals Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Kings at +140. The price makes Los Angeles 40.0%, we make it 43.9%, and a 3.9-point gap is short of our bar of 5.
The Washington Capitals are -166 and the Los Angeles Kings +140 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 60.0% for Washington and 40.0% for Los Angeles. Both numbers have the Capitals as the home favourite, and they are not far apart.
How 56.1% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Games at a neutral site are in neither half, and neither team had one.
The Capitals went 25-11-5 at Capital One Arena, a 61.0% home win rate over 41 games. The Kings went 20-10-11 on the road: 10 regulation losses and 11 after regulation, so 21 losses in 41, a 51.2% road loss rate. The midpoint is 56.1% for Washington and 43.9% for Los Angeles.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -166 and +140 they come to 104.1%. Taken out, the Capitals are 60.0% and the Kings 40.0%.
Every input is from 2025-26: 41 Washington home games and 41 Los Angeles road games. This season has started for both and none of it is in the figures. So far it favours Washington as well. The Kings are 0-4-2 and have not won a game; they lost 4-1 at home to Boston on Saturday. The Capitals are 5-3-0, 4-1-0 at home, and beat New Jersey 4-2 at home on Saturday.
Washington at home, Los Angeles on the road
The Capitals at home scored 3.39 a game and allowed 2.66, a surplus of 0.73. The Kings on the road scored 2.85 and allowed 2.90, a deficit of 0.05.
The halves the method leaves out: Washington on the road went 18-19-4, a 43.9% win rate, scoring 3.02 and allowing 3.29. Los Angeles at home went 15-17-9, 36.6%, scoring 2.63 and allowing 3.12. The Kings were a better team on the road than at home last season.
Over the full season these two finished 5 points apart. Washington went 43-30-9 with 95 points, outscored opponents by 19, and missed the playoffs. Los Angeles went 35-27-20 with 90 points and was outscored by 22, then was swept 4-0 by Colorado in the playoffs.
The Kings lived in close games: 21-6-20 in one-goal games, and 33 that went past regulation, of which they won 13. Washington went 13-8-9 in one-goal games and won 6 of its 15 past 60 minutes. Where the Capitals pulled clear was the bigger margins: they won by two goals or more in 30 of 82 games.
The Capitals won both meetings in 2025-26. Their 2-1 win at Capital One Arena on 17 November is in both halves of our number. Their 3-1 win in Los Angeles on 2 December is in neither.
Pick: No bet on the Kings +140
Pass on the moneyline. The gap is 3.9 points toward Los Angeles, against a threshold of 5.
The line opened at Capitals -162 and Kings +136 and has moved slightly toward Washington since. It read -166 and +140 on 19 October 2026 at 22:14 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN.
What changes it
A longer Los Angeles price. At +158 or longer the Kings are a bet whatever Washington is priced at.
For the Capitals to become the bet, they would have to be -104 or longer. They are -166.
Lineups are the other unknown. Logan Thompson has played six of Washington’s games this season and Charlie Lindgren two. Darcy Kuemper has appeared in four of the Kings’ games and Anton Forsberg in three. ESPN does not name a starter for Tuesday, and no goalie is on either team’s injury list.
Washington lists Justin Sourdif as out with an illness, and Matt Roy, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Rasmus Sandin and Patrick Thomas on injured reserve. Los Angeles lists Kevin Fiala, Mats Zuccarello, Alex Turcotte, Jakub Dvorak and Jan Jenik on injured reserve. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over -120 and under +100. The Capitals’ games went over 5.5 in 44 of 82, the Kings’ in 39 of 82. Washington’s home games averaged 6.05 goals, Los Angeles’s road games 5.75.
That is 53.7% and 47.6%, an average of 50.6% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 52.2% and the under at 47.8%, so our number leans to the under by less than 2 points. Pass on the total.
The puck line leans to Los Angeles. Washington is -1.5 at +150 and Los Angeles +1.5 at -180, which is 38.4% and 61.6% without the margin. The Capitals won by two goals or more in 30 of 82 games, and the Kings lost by two or more in 21 of 82. Averaged, Capitals -1.5 lands 31.1% of the time against 38.4% priced, 7.3 points short. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean: Kings +1.5 at -180. The call on the game stays no bet.
Kings at Capitals, Tuesday 20 October, 7:00 PM ET, Capital One Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 19 October 2026, 22:14 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs; 2026-27 games from ESPN’s team schedules, read 19 October 2026. Injury list and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 19 October 2026, 22:15 UTC.