NHL
SpreadTotalMoneyMIN+1.5U 6.5+110EDM-1.5O 6.5-130
NHL · Tuesday 20 October
Wild vs Oilers Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Wild at +110. Filip Gustavsson is out, and on the road games Minnesota played without him our number gives the Wild 49.6% against the price’s 45.7%: a 3.9-point gap, short of the 5 a bet needs.
The Edmonton Oilers are -130 and the Minnesota Wild +110 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 54.3% for Edmonton and 45.7% for Minnesota. Our number makes this close to a coin flip, with Edmonton just ahead at 50.4%.
How 50.4% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neither team played a game at a neutral site.
Gustavsson is on injured reserve after hip surgery (ESPN injury list, read 19 October 2026, 22:15 UTC). He was Minnesota’s main goalie last season, the season our number reads: he played in 50 of the Wild’s 82 games, Jesper Wallstedt in 35. When that goalie is out, our method is run again on the games without him. In the 17 road games Gustavsson did not play, all with Wallstedt in goal, Minnesota went 9-4-4 and lost 8, a 47.1% road loss rate, scoring 53 goals and allowing 44. In the 24 road games he played, they went 14-10-0.
The Oilers went 22-14-5 at Rogers Place, a 53.7% home win rate. Average 53.7% with 47.1% and the Oilers are 50.4%, the Wild 49.6%.
The full road season gives a different answer. The Wild went 23-14-4 away and lost 18 of 41, a 43.9% road loss rate; on that number Edmonton is 48.8%, Minnesota 51.2%, and the gap is 5.5 points, enough for a bet on the Wild. Our rule is that when that goalie is out, the games without him decide, and on those the gap is 3.9. So this is a pass.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -130 and +110 they come to 104.1%. Taken out, the Oilers are 54.3% and the Wild 45.7%.
Every input is from 2025-26: the Oilers’ 41 home games and the Wild’s 17 road games without Gustavsson. This season is not in the figures. Gustavsson has not played in it: Wallstedt has played eight of Minnesota’s nine games and Calvin Pickard one. The Wild are 6-2-1 and beat Columbus 2-1 at home on Sunday. The Oilers are 6-1-1, 1-1-1 at home, and won 6-2 in Utah on Saturday.
Edmonton is without a goalie too. Frederik Andersen is on injured reserve with a knee injury, but he played no games for the Oilers last season, so our number already describes Edmonton without him. Devon Levi has played five of their eight games this season and Tristan Jarry three.
Edmonton at home, Minnesota on the road
Over the full season the Oilers at home scored 3.49 a game and allowed 3.41, a surplus of 0.08. The Wild on the road scored 3.46 and allowed 3.05, a surplus of 0.41.
The halves the method leaves out: Edmonton on the road went 19-16-6, a 46.3% win rate, scoring 3.39 and allowing 3.15. Minnesota at home went 23-10-8, 56.1%, scoring 3.17 and allowing 2.80.
Over the full season these two finished 11 points apart. The Wild went 46-24-12 with 104 points and outscored opponents by 32, then beat Dallas 4-2 in the playoffs before losing 4-1 to Colorado. The Oilers went 41-30-11 with 93 points, outscored opponents by 13, and lost 4-2 to Anaheim.
Minnesota went 20-5-12 in one-goal games and won 15 of the 27 that went past regulation. Edmonton went 13-11-11 in one-goal games and won 9 of its 20 past 60 minutes.
The Wild won all three meetings in 2025-26. The two in Edmonton, 1-0 on 2 December and 7-3 on 31 January, had Wallstedt in goal, so both are in the re-run as well as in the Oilers’ home half. Minnesota’s 5-2 win at home on 20 December is in neither half.
Pick: No bet on the Wild +110
Pass on the moneyline. The gap is 3.9 points toward Minnesota on the games without Gustavsson, against a threshold of 5.
The line read Oilers -130 and Wild +110 on 19 October 2026 at 22:14 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at -122 and +102, so the move has been toward Edmonton.
What changes it
A longer Minnesota price. Against Edmonton at -130, the Wild would need to be +120 or longer to clear the bar.
For Edmonton to become the bet, the market would have to drop the Oilers to 45.4% or less, from 54.3% now.
The lineups matter here. Besides Gustavsson, ESPN’s injury list has Olli Maatta out, and Nico Sturm, Jared Spurgeon and Marcus Foligno on injured reserve for Minnesota. Edmonton has Jason Dickinson out, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Alec Regula and Matt Savoie on injured reserve, besides Andersen. Check the starters before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over +100 and under -120. The Oilers’ games went over 6.5 in 48 of 82, the Wild’s in 42 of 82. Edmonton’s home games averaged 6.90 goals and Minnesota’s road games 6.51.
That is 58.5% and 51.2%, an average of 54.9% for the over. With the margin removed the over at +100 is priced at 47.8% and the under at 52.2%, a gap of 7.1 points toward the over. Our method bets the moneyline only, so this is a lean: over 6.5 at +100.
Edmonton is -1.5 at +180 and Minnesota +1.5 at -218, which is 34.3% and 65.7% without the margin. The Oilers won by two goals or more in 28 of 82 games, and the Wild lost by two or more in 19 of 82. Averaged, Oilers -1.5 lands 28.7% of the time against 34.3% priced, a gap of 5.6 points toward Wild +1.5 at -218. That is a lean too. The call on the game stays no bet.
Wild at Oilers, Tuesday 20 October, 9:00 PM ET, Rogers Place. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 19 October 2026, 22:14 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs; goalie appearances from ESPN box scores; 2026-27 games and goalie appearances from ESPN’s team schedules and game page, read 19 October 2026. Injury list: ESPN, read 19 October 2026, 22:15 UTC.