NHL
NHL · Saturday 24 October
Predators vs Penguins Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on this moneyline. Our number gives Nashville 47.5% against the price’s 44.9%, a 2.6-point gap that falls short of our 5-point threshold.
The Pittsburgh Penguins are -135 and the Nashville Predators +114 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 55.1% for Pittsburgh and 44.9% for Nashville. Our number has the Penguins at 52.5%. The market and the method agree on the favourite and differ by too little to bet.
How 52.5% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins, and neutral-site games are left out. A side is a bet when our number and the market’s differ by at least 5 points.
The Penguins went 19-13-8 at PPG Paints Arena, a 47.5% home win rate. The Predators went 17-16-7 on the road, a 57.5% road loss rate once losses after regulation are counted. The average of 47.5% and 57.5% is 52.5% for Pittsburgh and 47.5% for Nashville. That is 2.6 points better for the Predators than the price.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -135 and +114 they come to 104.2%. Taken out, the Penguins are 55.1% and the Predators 44.9%.
No goalie or skater is out for either team in a way that re-runs the method. Every input is from 2025-26, and this season is outside it. Pittsburgh is 4-6-1, 3-1-0 at home, and beat the Florida Panthers 4-0 on Thursday 22 October. Arturs Silovs has played seven of their games and Sergei Murashov four. Nashville is 3-3-3, 1-1-2 on the road, and lost 6-0 at the Boston Bruins the same night. Juuse Saros has played seven of their games and Justus Annunen one.
Pittsburgh at home, Nashville on the road
The Penguins at home scored 3.65 a game and allowed 3.58, a surplus of 0.07. The Predators on the road scored 3.00 and allowed 3.33, a deficit of 0.33. Those are the two halves in our number.
The halves the method leaves out run the other way for Pittsburgh. The Penguins on the road went 21-12-7, a 52.5% win rate, scoring 3.55 and allowing 3.08, a surplus of 0.47. That is a better team than the one at PPG Paints Arena, and it is not in our number. The Predators at home went 20-17-3, a 50.0% win rate, scoring 3.12 and allowing 3.27.
The season around it
Pittsburgh finished 41-25-16 with 98 points and outscored opponents by 25 in the Eastern Conference. Their playoffs ended against the Philadelphia Flyers, 2-4 in the series. Nashville went 38-34-10 with 86 points in the Western Conference, was outscored by 22, and missed the playoffs.
Close games split the teams differently. The Penguins went 12-7-16 in one-goal games and won 7 of the 23 that went past regulation. The Predators went 20-8-10 in one-goal games and won 10 of their 20 past 60 minutes. Pittsburgh won by two goals or more in 29 of 82 games and lost by that much in 18. Nashville won by two or more in 18 and lost by two or more in 26.
The teams met twice in 2025-26, two days apart. Nashville won 2-1 in overtime at home on Friday 14 November 2025; that game is in neither half of our number. Pittsburgh won 4-0 at home on Sunday 16 November 2025; that game is in both halves.
Pick: No bet
No bet on either side of the moneyline. The gap is 2.6 points toward Nashville against a threshold of 5. On this method, -135 and +114 are close to right.
The line read Penguins -135 and Predators +114 on 24 October 2026 at 00:40 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at -125 and +105. Since the opening the market has moved toward Pittsburgh: at the open it gave the Penguins 53.2%, and now it gives them 55.1%, 1.9 points more.
What kills the bet
A longer Nashville price. At +136 or longer the Predators become a bet, whatever Pittsburgh is priced at. They are +114.
For the Penguins to become the bet they would have to be +111 or longer, whatever Nashville is priced at. They are -135. The move since opening has gone toward Pittsburgh, which is away from both thresholds.
ESPN’s injury list has Evgeni Malkin day-to-day with an illness, Samuel Girard day-to-day with an undisclosed injury and Egor Chinakhov day-to-day with a lower-body injury for Pittsburgh. Bryan Rust and Ben Kindel are on injured reserve. Nashville lists no one. No goalie is on either list. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over -108 and under -112. The Penguins’ games went over 6.5 in 47 of 82, the Predators’ in 35 of 82. Pittsburgh’s home games averaged 7.23 goals, Nashville’s road games 6.33.
That is 57.3% and 42.7%, an average of 50.0% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 49.6% and the under at 50.4%. Our number leans to the over by 0.4 points. Pass on the total.
On the puck line, Pittsburgh is -1.5 at +180 and Nashville +1.5 at -218, which is 34.3% and 65.7% without the margin. Over the full season the Penguins won by two goals or more in 29 of 82 games, and the Predators lost by two or more in 26 of 82. On that, Penguins -1.5 lands 33.5% of the time against 34.3% priced, a gap of 0.7 points toward Predators +1.5. Our method stakes the moneyline only, and this gap is too small to call a lean worth acting on. No bet on this game.
Predators at Penguins, Saturday 24 October, 7:00 PM ET, PPG Paints Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 October 2026, 00:40 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 24 October 2026, 00:40 UTC.