NHL
NHL · Saturday 14 November
Devils vs Capitals Picks and Predictions, November 14
No bet on Saturday, November 14. Our number has the Capitals 2.7 points better than the price, and we bet at 5.
Devils vs Capitals odds
The New Jersey Devils at Washington Capitals is priced Capitals -120 and Devils +100 at DraftKings, read 13 November 2026 at 16:33 UTC. Those are also the opening prices, so the market has not moved. The total is 6.5, over +110 and under -130. On the puck line, Washington is -1.5 at +195 and New Jersey +1.5 at -238.
The two moneyline prices add up to 104.5%. A book builds in that extra, called the margin, so that the pair comes to more than 100%. With the margin out, the market gives the Capitals 52.2% and the Devils 47.8%.
Our rule is fixed before the pick. A side is a bet when our chance and the market’s differ by at least 5 points. We never bet a side the market gives less than 40%, however wide the gap.
Devils betting form
New Jersey is 14-6-0 this season and 5-4-0 on the road. The Devils won 4 of their last 5: 5-4 in overtime against St. Louis, 5-4 in overtime at the Islanders, 4-0 at Toronto, a 4-2 loss at Winnipeg, and 5-2 at home against Washington on Thursday 12 November. That last game was two nights before this one, between the same two teams.
The Devils score 3.60 goals a game and allow 2.85. They outshoot opponents 32.8 to 25.0 a game. Their power play converts 18.8% of chances. Their penalty kill sits at 65.1%, the weakest special-teams number on either side of this game.
Jack Hughes leads them in all three columns: 10 goals, 17 assists, 27 points. Jake Allen has played 10 games in goal, with a .881 save percentage and a 3.19 goals-against average. Connor Hellebuyck has played 6, with a .916 save percentage, a 1.97 goals-against average and 1 shutout.
On ESPN’s injury list, Brett Pesce (D) is day-to-day with an illness. Johnathan Kovacevic (D) is out, undisclosed. Anthony Mantha (RW) and Seamus Casey (D) are on injured reserve, with neck and knee injuries.
Capitals betting form
Washington is 10-7-0, 7-4-0 at home. The Capitals won 2 of their last 5. They lost 5-1 to Minnesota and 6-5 to Dallas, then beat Florida 4-3 and won 3-2 in overtime at Ottawa, before the 5-2 loss in New Jersey on Thursday.
They score 3.41 a game and allow 3.41. Shots run 27.2 for and 27.8 against. The power play is at 19.6% and the penalty kill at 77.2%.
Alex Tuch leads in goals with 11. Dylan Strome leads in assists with 12 and in points with 15. Logan Thompson has played 13 games in goal, with a .888 save percentage and a 3.17 goals-against average. Charlie Lindgren has played 5, with .881 and 3.08.
Rasmus Sandin (D) is on injured reserve with a knee injury and Vincent Desharnais (D) with an abdomen injury. No goalie is on either team’s list.
Devils vs Capitals matchup
Our number uses two halves of 2025-26. The Capitals went 25-11-5 at home, a 61.0% win rate, scoring 3.39 a game and allowing 2.66, a surplus of 0.73. The Devils went 21-20-0 on the road, a 48.8% road loss rate, scoring 2.66 and allowing 3.17, a surplus of -0.51. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins, and neutral-site games are left out.
The halves left out point the same way. Washington on the road went 18-19-4, a 43.9% win rate. New Jersey at home went 21-17-3, a 51.2% win rate. The Devils won at the same 51.2% rate home and away. The Capitals were 61.0% in their own arena and 43.9% outside it.
Over the full season, Washington went 43-30-9 with 95 points and a goal difference of +19. New Jersey went 42-37-3 with 87 points and -24. Both missed the playoffs. The Devils were better in close games: 20-8-3 in one-goal games, and 13 wins in the 16 that went past regulation. The Capitals went 13-8-9 in one-goal games and won 6 of 15 past 60 minutes.
The four meetings in 2025-26 split two each. In Washington, the Devils won 3-2 in a shootout on 15 November 2025 and the Capitals won 2-1 on 20 March 2026. Both of those games are inside both halves of our number. In New Jersey, the Capitals won 4-3 in overtime on 27 December 2025 and the Devils won 7-3 on 2 April 2026. Neither of those games is in our number.
Devils vs Capitals prediction and best bet
Projected score: New Jersey Devils 2.7, Washington Capitals 3.3
Each team’s goals are the average of what it scored and what the other team allowed in 2025-26 at this venue. That is the Capitals’ 3.39 at home with the Devils’ 3.17 allowed on the road, and the Devils’ 2.66 on the road with the Capitals’ 2.66 allowed at home. This is a projection of goals from last season, and it is not a bet.
This season is outside the method entirely. New Jersey’s 14-6-0 start, Thursday’s 5-2 win and Hellebuyck’s six games in goal are not in any figure above.
Pick: No bet
No bet on the moneyline. Our number makes the Capitals 54.9% and the Devils 45.1%. The market has 52.2% and 47.8%. The gap is 2.7 points toward Washington against a threshold of 5. Price: Capitals -120, Devils +100, DraftKings via ESPN, read 13 November 2026, 16:33 UTC, unchanged from the opening.
Our home chance is the average of the Capitals’ 61.0% home win rate and the Devils’ 48.8% road loss rate, which gives 54.9%.
The projected score also has Washington ahead, by 0.6 goals. Leading by 0.6 goals does not make a bet, because a goal projection and a price measure different things. At -120 the market already has the Capitals as the favourite, and our number is 2.7 points away from it.
What kills the bet
The call changes on the Capitals’ price. At +101 or longer, Washington is a bet, whatever New Jersey is priced at. They are -120 now, so the line would have to swing to plus money.
Against the current Capitals price, no Devils price makes them a bet. By the time the gap reached 5 points, the market would have New Jersey under 40%. The method never bets that, because it has no adjustment for opponent strength. On underdogs, its number has run above what the teams then did.
Of the injuries, Pesce is the only one marked day-to-day. Check the lineups before you bet, starting with which goalie each team names.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over +110 and under -130. The Capitals’ games went over 6.5 in 34 of 82 last season, and the Devils’ in 35 of 82. Washington’s home games averaged 6.05 goals, and New Jersey’s road games 5.83.
That is 41.5% and 42.7%, an average of 42.1% for the over. With the margin out, the over is priced at 45.7% and the under at 54.3%. Our number leans to the under by 3.7 points, short of the threshold. The projected 6.0 goals also sits under 6.5. Pass on the total.
On the puck line, the market gives Capitals -1.5 at +195 a 32.5% chance and Devils +1.5 at -238 67.5%. Washington won by two goals or more in 30 of 82 last season, and New Jersey lost by two or more in 29 of 82. Averaged, that is 36.0% for Capitals -1.5, a gap of 3.5 points toward Washington. The method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean and not a bet. On this game, the call is no bet.
Devils at Capitals, Saturday 14 November, 7:00 PM ET, Capital One Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 13 November 2026, 16:33 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. This season’s records, team and goalie figures, last five games, leaders and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 13 November 2026, 16:33 UTC.