NHL
NHL · Saturday 24 October
Rangers vs Senators Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Our Rangers vs Senators prediction: bet the Senators on the moneyline. With both starting goalies out, our number makes Ottawa a 66.7% winner at home against the price’s 52.6%.
The Ottawa Senators are -122 and the New York Rangers +102 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 52.6% for Ottawa and 47.4% for New York. The price has this close to a coin flip. Our number has the Senators clear favourites, a gap of 14.1 points.
How 66.7% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out of both splits.
Two starting goalies are out, and when a starter is out the method is run again on the games without him. Linus Ullmark is on injured reserve with a lower-body injury (ESPN injury list, entry dated 22 October 2026, 21:03 UTC, return date 29 October; read 24 October 2026, 00:40 UTC). He appeared in 49 of Ottawa’s 82 games in 2025-26, more than Leevi Merilainen’s 20 and James Reimer’s 14. In the 17 home games he did not play, the Senators went 11-5-1, a 64.71% home win rate.
Igor Shesterkin is on injured reserve with a knee injury (ESPN injury list, entry dated 11 October 2026, return date 15 September 2027; same read). He appeared in 51 of New York’s 82 games, against Jonathan Quick’s 25. In the 16 road games he did not play, the Rangers went 5-11-0, a 68.75% road loss rate. Both samples clear our minimum of 10 games.
Average 64.71% with 68.75% and the Senators are 66.7%, the Rangers 33.3%. That is 14.1 points better for Ottawa than the price.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -122 and +102 the pair comes to 104.5%. Taken out, the Senators are 52.6% and the Rangers 47.4%.
The full seasons alone do not make this a bet. Ottawa’s 56.1% home win rate and New York’s 52.5% road loss rate give the Senators 54.3%, a gap of 1.7 points, under the threshold of 5. The edge comes from the two absences. One part of it reads oddly: Ottawa won more often at home without Ullmark than with him. Seventeen games clear the minimum and prove nothing about why.
Every input is from 2025-26. This season is outside the method. The Senators are 7-4-0, 4-2-0 at home, and lost 6-2 to the San Jose Sharks on Thursday 22 October. Ullmark has played eight of their games and Samuel Ersson five. The Rangers are 7-4-1, 1-4-1 on the road, and lost 5-4 at Toronto on Thursday 22 October. Dylan Garand has played eight of their games, Shesterkin five and Spencer Martin one.
Ottawa at home, New York on the road
Over the full season the Senators at home went 23-12-6, scoring 3.39 a game and allowing 2.63, a surplus of 0.76. The Rangers on the road went 19-19-2, a 47.5% win rate, scoring 3.17 and allowing 3.12, a surplus of 0.05.
The halves the method leaves out: Ottawa on the road went 21-15-5, a 51.2% win rate, scoring 3.39 and allowing 3.37. New York at home went 14-20-7, a 34.1% win rate, scoring 2.59 and allowing 3.02, a deficit of 0.43. The Rangers were worse in their own arena than on the road, and that half is not in our number.
The 2025-26 season
These two finished 22 points apart. Ottawa went 44-27-11 with 99 points and outscored opponents by 32, then lost 0-4 to the Carolina Hurricanes in the playoffs. New York went 34-39-9 with 77 points, was outscored by 12, and missed the playoffs.
The Senators went 16-10-11 in one-goal games and won 6 of the 17 that went past regulation. The Rangers went 11-12-9 in one-goal games and won 9 of 18 past 60 minutes. Ottawa won by two goals or more in 28 of 82 games; New York lost by two or more in 27 of 82.
New York won the one meeting in Ottawa, 4-2 on 4 December 2025. That game sits in both full-season halves. The Senators won the two in New York, 8-4 on 14 January and 2-1 on 23 March, and those are in neither half.
Pick: Senators -122
Bet the Senators on the moneyline at -122. The gap is 14.1 points toward Ottawa with both goalies out, against a threshold of 5. On the full seasons it is 1.7, a pass.
The line read Senators -122 and Rangers +102 on 24 October 2026 at 00:40 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at -115 and -105. Since the open the market gives the Senators 1.5 points more, 52.6% against 51.1%.
What kills the bet
A shorter Ottawa price. At -161 or longer the Senators are a bet whatever New York is priced at. Against the Rangers at +102, they stay a bet down to -398.
For the Rangers to become the bet, they would need +253 or longer whatever Ottawa is priced at, or +360 against the Senators at -122. They are +102.
The bet rests on the two goalies staying out. If either plays, the number goes back toward the full-season 54.3%, and that is a pass. Besides Ullmark, ESPN’s injury list has Thomas Chabot out with an upper-body injury, and William Eklund and Kurtis MacDermid on injured reserve for Ottawa. New York lists Eeli Tolvanen as day-to-day for personal reasons, and Joe Veleno, Aidan Thompson and goalie Joonas Korpisalo on injured reserve alongside Shesterkin. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over -135 and under +114. The Senators’ games went over 5.5 in 45 of 82, the Rangers’ in 39 of 82. Ottawa’s home games averaged 6.02 goals, New York’s road games 6.29.
That is 54.9% and 47.6%, an average of 51.2% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 55.1% and the under at 44.9%, so our number leans to the under by 3.9 points. Under the threshold. Pass on the total.
On the puck line, Ottawa is -1.5 at +195 and New York +1.5 at -238, which is 32.5% and 67.5% without the margin. The Senators won by two goals or more in 28 of 82 games, and the Rangers lost by two or more in 27 of 82. That puts Senators -1.5 at 33.5% against 32.5% priced, a lean of 1.0 point on the same side. Our method stakes the moneyline only. One bet on this game: the Senators at -122.
Rangers at Senators, Saturday 24 October, 7:00 PM ET, Canadian Tire Centre. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 October 2026, 00:40 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs; goalie appearances from ESPN box scores of all 82 games for each team. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 24 October 2026, 00:40 UTC.