Rangers vs Maple Leafs Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Bet the Maple Leafs at -108. With Igor Shesterkin out, our number is run on New York’s road games without him, and it makes Toronto a 56.3% winner at home against the price’s 49.6%.

The Toronto Maple Leafs are -108 and the New York Rangers -112 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 49.6% for Toronto and 50.4% for New York. The price has the visitors a shade ahead. Our number has the Maple Leafs ahead by more than the threshold.

How 56.3% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins, and neutral-site games are left out.

Shesterkin is on injured reserve with a knee injury (ESPN injury list, read 22 October 2026, 19:36 UTC; the entry is dated 11 October, with a return date of 15 September 2027). When a team’s starting goalie is out, our method is run again on the games without him. Shesterkin appeared in 51 of the Rangers’ 82 games last season, ahead of Jonathan Quick’s 25, Spencer Martin’s 6 and Dylan Garand’s 3. He played 24 of the 40 road games the method reads. In the 16 road games he missed, New York went 5-11-0, a 68.75% road loss rate. Our minimum is 10 games, so the sample qualifies, though 16 games is thin.

The Maple Leafs went 18-15-8 at Scotiabank Arena, a 43.9% home win rate. Average 43.9% with 68.75% and Toronto is 56.3%, the Rangers 43.7%. That is 6.7 points better for Toronto than the price, against a threshold of 5.

The full road season does not give that side. The Rangers went 19-19-2 away from home, a 52.5% road loss rate. On that number Toronto is 48.2%, against the price’s 49.6%, a gap of 1.4 points toward New York, and the method passes. The bet exists only because Shesterkin is out.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -108 and -112 they come to 104.8%. Taken out, Toronto is 49.6% and New York 50.4%.

Every input is from 2025-26: Toronto’s home games and New York’s 16 road games without Shesterkin. This season is not in the figures. The Rangers are 7-3-1, 1-3-1 on the road, and beat Anaheim 5-2 at home on Monday 19 October. Garand has played seven of their games, Shesterkin five and Martin one. The Maple Leafs are 5-4-2, 3-3-1 at home, and won 6-2 at Columbus on Tuesday 20 October. Sergei Bobrovsky has played seven of their games and Anthony Stolarz four.

Toronto at home, New York on the road

Over the full season the Maple Leafs at home scored 3.29 a game and allowed 3.54, a deficit of 0.25. The Rangers on the road scored 3.17 and allowed 3.12, a surplus of 0.05. On goal difference alone, the visitors have the better half. Our call rests on the goalie, and nothing in the home half supports it.

The halves the method leaves out: Toronto on the road went 14-21-6, a 34.1% win rate, scoring 2.88 and allowing 3.76. New York at home went 14-20-7, also 34.1%, scoring 2.59 and allowing 3.02. Neither team was good away from the half our number reads, and neither half is in it.

Both teams missed the playoffs. Toronto went 32-36-14 with 78 points and a goal difference of -46. New York went 34-39-9 with 77 points and a goal difference of -12.

Toronto went 14-4-14 in one-goal games. Of its 23 games past regulation, it won 9. The Rangers went 11-12-9 in one-goal games and won 9 of their 18 past regulation. The Maple Leafs lost by two goals or more in 32 of 82 games and won by two or more in 18. The Rangers won by two or more in 23 and lost by two or more in 27.

Toronto won two of the three meetings in 2025-26, both at home: 2-1 in overtime on 16 October 2025 and 4-3 on 25 March 2026. New York won 6-2 at home on 5 March 2026. That game is in neither half of our number.

Pick: Maple Leafs -108

Bet the Maple Leafs on the moneyline at -108. The gap is 6.7 points toward Toronto on New York’s road games without Shesterkin, against a threshold of 5. On the full road season the gap is 1.4 points toward New York, which is a pass.

The line read Maple Leafs -108 and Rangers -112 on 22 October 2026 at 19:36 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at -120 and +100. At the open the market gave Toronto 52.2% and New York 47.8%, so it has moved 2.6 points toward the Rangers.

What kills the bet

A shorter Toronto price. At -105 or longer the Maple Leafs are a bet whatever New York is priced at. Against the Rangers at -112, they stay a bet down to -126.

For the Rangers to become the bet, they would have to be +205 or longer against Toronto at -108. Whatever the Maple Leafs are priced at, +159 or longer on the Rangers is a bet. They are -112.

The rest is on the ice. Our number depends on New York playing without Shesterkin, who is on ESPN’s list as injured reserve with a knee injury. The Rangers’ list also has Joonas Korpisalo (goalie), Joe Veleno, Aidan Thompson and Adam Sykora on injured reserve. Toronto lists Marshall Rifai as day-to-day, and John Tavares, Dakota Joshua, Miles Wood and Chris Tanev on injured reserve. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total and the puck line

The total is 6.5, over -102 and under -118. Toronto’s games went over 6.5 in 46 of 82, New York’s in 32 of 82. The Maple Leafs’ home games averaged 6.83 goals, the Rangers’ road games 6.29.

That is 56.1% and 39.0%, an average of 47.6% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 48.3% and the under at 51.7%, so our number leans to the under by 0.7 points. Pass on the total.

On the puck line, Rangers -1.5 is +220 and Maple Leafs +1.5 is -270, which is 30.0% and 70.0% without the margin. The Rangers won by two goals or more in 23 of 82 games, and the Maple Leafs lost by two or more in 32 of 82. Averaged, Rangers -1.5 lands 33.5% of the time against 30.0% priced, a gap of 3.6 points. That is under the threshold of 5, and it leans the other way from the moneyline. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so the puck line is a lean and not a bet. One bet on this game: the Maple Leafs at -108.

Rangers at Maple Leafs, Thursday 22 October, 7:00 PM ET, Scotiabank Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 22 October 2026, 19:36 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs; New York’s goalie appearances from ESPN box scores of all 82 games. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 22 October 2026, 19:36 UTC.