NHL
NHL · Tuesday 13 October
Penguins vs Blackhawks Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Pass on the Penguins at -142. We make Pittsburgh 2.9 points likelier than the price does, and a bet needs 5.
The Pittsburgh Penguins are -142 and the Chicago Blackhawks +120 at DraftKings. Strip the margin and the price says 56.3% Pittsburgh, 43.7% Chicago. Our number is 59.2% for the Penguins. That leaves a gap of 2.9 points on the visitor’s side, under the 5 points we ask for before a side is a bet. No bet.
Where 59.2% comes from
The method in one clause: the home team’s chance is the average of its 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, with a win in overtime or a shootout counted as a win. Neutral-site games are in neither rate.
The Blackhawks went 14-19-8 at the United Center: 14 wins, 19 regulation losses, 8 losses after regulation. Fourteen wins in 41 home games is a 34.1% rate. The Penguins went 21-12-7 on the road, so they lost 19 of 40, a 47.5% road loss rate. Average the two and Chicago is at 40.8%, Pittsburgh at 59.2%.
Both halves lean toward the Penguins. Chicago lost about two home games in three, and Pittsburgh won more road games than it lost. The two inputs, 34.1% and 47.5%, sit 13.4 points apart, and the method takes the midpoint.
A book prices both teams a little high so the two chances sum past 100%, and that surplus is the margin. Here -142 and +120 add to 104.1%. Scale them back to 100% and the Penguins are 56.3%, the Blackhawks 43.7%.
The market gives Chicago 43.7% in a building where it won 34.1% of the time last season. Our figure sits between those two because the Penguins’ 19 road losses in 40 pull it up. The method reads one season, 41 home games for Chicago and 40 road games for Pittsburgh, and no game from 2026-27 is in it. Whatever the price knows about either roster since last season ended, these figures do not.
Chicago at the United Center, Pittsburgh away from home
At home the Blackhawks scored 2.61 goals a game and allowed 3.29. They were outscored by 0.68 a game in their own building. The Penguins on the road scored 3.55 and allowed 3.08, a margin of 0.47 a game in their favour.
Pittsburgh was the rarer case, a team that did better away. The Penguins won 21 of 40 on the road, 52.5%, against 19 of 40 at home, 47.5%. The scoring barely changed, 3.65 a game at home and 3.55 away. The goals against did: 3.58 at home, 3.08 on the road, half a goal a game fewer. Two more Penguins games were played against Nashville in Stockholm, a 4-0 win and a 2-1 overtime loss, and they count in neither split.
The building made little difference to Chicago. The Blackhawks went 15-20-6 on the road, a 36.6% win rate over 41 games, with 2.59 goals scored and 3.41 allowed a game.
Over the full season the Penguins finished 41-25-16 with 98 points and outscored opponents by 25 goals. They lost their only playoff series to the Philadelphia Flyers in six games. The Blackhawks finished 29-39-14 with 72 points, were outscored by 62 and missed the playoffs.
Chicago’s deficit came from the games that were not close. The Blackhawks lost by two goals or more 31 times in 82 and won by that much 16 times. In one-goal games they went 13-8-14, and the Penguins went 12-7-16 in theirs. Each team played 35 of them. Past 60 minutes the two were alike as well: Chicago won 7 of 21, Pittsburgh 7 of 23.
The teams met twice in 2025-26 and the Penguins won both, 7-3 in Chicago on 28 December and 6-2 in Pittsburgh on 29 January. Two games are a sample of two. The method does not use them.
Pick: No bet on the Penguins -142
No bet on the moneyline. Pittsburgh’s edge by our count is 2.9 points, and the threshold is 5.
DraftKings opened this game at Penguins -142 and Blackhawks +120. When the prices were read on 12 October 2026 at 17:40 UTC, through ESPN, they were the same, -142 and +120.
What would make it a bet
The Penguins need to get about 24 cents cheaper. They become a bet at -118 or shorter, whatever Chicago’s price is, against -142 now. The other side is further off: the Blackhawks become a bet at +180 or longer, and they are +120.
A price move is the only trigger this page can measure. It says nothing about who dresses for either team on 13 October, including in goal. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, with the over at +100 and the under at -120. The Blackhawks’ games went over 6.5 in 33 of 82 and the Penguins’ in 47 of 82. Chicago’s home games averaged 5.90 goals and Pittsburgh’s road games 6.63.
Those two over rates are 40.2% and 57.3%, and they average 48.8%. With the margin out, the over at +100 is priced at 47.8%. A gap of 1.0 point is no lean in either direction. The two teams disagree about this number by 17 points, and the book has set it almost exactly between them.
On the puck line the Penguins are -1.5 at +164 and the Blackhawks +1.5 at -198, or 36.3% and 63.7% without the margin. Pittsburgh won by two goals or more in 29 of 82 games. Chicago lost by two or more in 31 of 82. The average of those is 36.6% for Penguins -1.5, against 36.3% priced, a gap of 0.3 points. Pass there too, and the game stays no bet at -142.
Penguins at Blackhawks, Tuesday 13 October, 8:00 PM ET, United Center. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 12 October 2026, 17:40 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Nothing here states who is available.