NHL
NHL · Tuesday 20 October
Sharks vs Canadiens Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Bet the Sharks at +170. Our number gives San Jose 42.7% in Montreal, and the price gives them 35.5%.
The Montreal Canadiens are -205 and the San Jose Sharks +170 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 64.5% for Montreal and 35.5% for San Jose. Both numbers have the Canadiens as the favourite. Ours has them as a much smaller one.
How 42.7% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Games at a neutral site are in neither half, and neither team had one.
The Canadiens went 24-15-2 at the Bell Centre: 24 wins, 15 regulation losses and 2 after regulation, a 58.5% home win rate over 41 games. The Sharks went 18-21-2 on the road and lost 23 of 41, a 56.1% road loss rate. The midpoint is 57.3% for Montreal and 42.7% for San Jose, a gap of 7.2 points to the price.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -205 and +170 they come to 104.3%. Taken out, the Canadiens are 64.5% and the Sharks 35.5%.
Every input is from 2025-26: 41 Montreal home games and 41 San Jose road games. This season has started for both and none of it is in the figures. The Canadiens are 4-3-1, 3-2-0 at home, and beat Buffalo 4-3 in overtime at the Bell Centre on Saturday. The Sharks are 4-3-1, lost 4-3 in a shootout in Detroit on Saturday, and play in Toronto on Monday night, so Tuesday is the second game of a back-to-back.
Montreal at home, San Jose on the road
The Canadiens at home scored 3.34 a game and allowed 3.10, a surplus of 0.24. The Sharks on the road scored 3.05 and allowed 3.66, a deficit of 0.61.
The halves the method leaves out: Montreal on the road went 24-9-8, a 58.5% win rate, scoring 3.56 and allowing 3.15. San Jose at home went 21-14-6, 51.2%, scoring 3.07 and allowing 3.46. The Canadiens were as good away as at home, which is part of why the price leans so hard on them.
Over the full season these two finished 20 points apart. Montreal went 48-24-10 with 106 points and outscored opponents by 27, then beat Tampa Bay 4-3 and Buffalo 4-3 in the playoffs before losing 4-1 to Carolina. San Jose went 39-35-8 with 86 points, was outscored by 41, and missed the playoffs.
Both teams lived in close games. Montreal went 23-6-10 in one-goal games and won 14 of the 24 that went past regulation. San Jose went 22-5-8 in one-goal games and won 12 of its 20 past 60 minutes.
The Sharks won both meetings in 2025-26. Their 4-2 win at the Bell Centre on 14 March is in both halves of our number. Their 7-5 win at home on 3 March is in neither.
Pick: Sharks +170
Bet the Sharks on the moneyline at +170. The gap is 7.2 points toward San Jose, against a threshold of 5.
The line read Canadiens -205 and Sharks +170 on 19 October 2026 at 22:14 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN, unchanged from where it opened.
What kills the bet
A shorter San Jose price. At +166 or longer the Sharks are a bet whatever Montreal is priced at, so there is not much room.
For the Canadiens to become the bet, they would have to be -109 or longer. They are -205.
The real risk is the schedule. The Sharks play in Toronto the night before, and the goalie who starts the second game of a back-to-back is often not the one who started the first. Yaroslav Askarov has played five of their games this season and Alex Nedeljkovic three. Kyle Keyser is on injured reserve; he has not played for San Jose this season or last. ESPN does not name a starter for Tuesday.
Montreal has used Jakub Dobes and Jacob Fowler in four games each. Sam Montembeault has been on injured reserve since 10 October and has not played this season. Mike Matheson is day-to-day, and Florian Xhekaj, Ivan Demidov and Bryce Pickford are on injured reserve. San Jose also lists Quentin Musty on injured reserve. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over -115 and under -105. The Canadiens’ games went over 6.5 in 44 of 82, the Sharks’ in 42 of 82. Montreal’s home games averaged 6.44 goals, San Jose’s road games 6.71.
That is 53.7% and 51.2%, an average of 52.4% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 51.1% and the under at 48.9%, so our number leans to the over by less than 2 points. Pass on the total.
The puck line leans the same way as the pick, and further. Montreal is -1.5 at +114 and San Jose +1.5 at -135, which is 44.9% and 55.1% without the margin. Over the full season the Canadiens won by two goals or more in 25 of 82 games, and the Sharks lost by two or more in 30 of 82. Averaged, Montreal -1.5 lands 33.5% of the time against 44.9% priced, 11.3 points short. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean: Sharks +1.5 at -135. One bet on this game: the Sharks at +170.
Sharks at Canadiens, Tuesday 20 October, 7:00 PM ET, Bell Centre. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 19 October 2026, 22:14 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs; 2026-27 games from ESPN’s team schedules, read 19 October 2026. Injury list and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 19 October 2026, 22:15 UTC.