NHL
SpreadTotalMoneySJ+1.5U 6.5+114OTT-1.5O 6.5-135
NHL · Thursday 22 October
Sharks vs Senators Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Bet the Senators at -135. With Linus Ullmark out, our number is run on Ottawa’s home games without him, and it makes the Senators a 60.4% winner against the price’s 55.1%.
DraftKings has the Ottawa Senators at -135 and the San Jose Sharks at +114. The two prices add up to 104.2%. With that margin out, the market gives Ottawa 55.1% and San Jose 44.9%. Our number gives Ottawa 60.4% and San Jose 39.6%, a gap of 5.3 points toward the Senators. Our threshold for a bet is 5.0, so the call clears it narrowly.
How 60.4% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins, and neutral-site games are left out. A side is a bet when our number and the market’s differ by at least 5 points.
Ullmark is on injured reserve with a lower-body injury (ESPN injury list, entry dated 22 October 2026, 15:25 UTC, return date 29 October; read 22 October 2026, 19:36 UTC). He appeared in 49 of Ottawa’s 82 games last season, ahead of Leevi Merilainen with 20, James Reimer with 14, Mads Sogaard with 2 and Hunter Shepard with 1. He played in 24 of the 41 home games the method reads. When a starting goalie is out, the method is run again on the games without him, and the NHL minimum is 10 of those games at the venue.
Ottawa has 17 home games without Ullmark from 2025-26. They went 11-5-1, a 64.71% home win rate. San Jose went 18-21-2 on the road, a 56.1% road loss rate. Average 64.71% with 56.1% and the Senators are 60.4%, the Sharks 39.6%.
On the full season, with Ullmark in the 41 home games, the same method gives Ottawa 56.1% against the market’s 55.1%. That gap is 1.0 point, and the verdict is pass. The whole bet comes from the absence. Seventeen games is above the minimum and still a small sample, so treat 5.3 against 5.0 as a bet that is barely there.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair adds to more than 100%. At -135 and +114 that comes to 104.2%. Taken out, the market is 55.1% and 44.9%.
This season is outside the figures. Ottawa is 7-3-0, 4-1-0 at home, and beat Florida 5-1 at home on Wednesday 21 October. Ullmark has appeared in eight of their games and Samuel Ersson in four. San Jose is 5-4-1, 3-2-1 on the road, and beat Montreal 4-3 in overtime on Tuesday 20 October. Yaroslav Askarov has played six of their games and Alex Nedeljkovic four.
Ottawa at home, San Jose on the road
Over the full 2025-26 season the Senators at home went 23-12-6, a 56.1% win rate. They scored 3.39 a game and allowed 2.63, a surplus of 0.76. The Sharks on the road went 18-21-2, a 43.9% win rate. They scored 3.05 and allowed 3.66, a deficit of 0.61 a game.
The halves the method leaves out are closer. Ottawa on the road went 21-15-5, 51.2%, scoring 3.39 and allowing 3.37. San Jose at home went 21-14-6, also 51.2%, scoring 3.07 and allowing 3.46. Our number uses only the Senators at home and the Sharks on the road.
Over the full season Ottawa went 44-27-11 with 99 points and a goal difference of +32, then lost its playoff series to Carolina 0-4. San Jose went 39-35-8 with 86 points and a goal difference of -41, and missed the playoffs.
San Jose was good in tight games. It went 22-5-8 in one-goal games and won 12 of the 20 that went past regulation. Ottawa went 16-10-11 in one-goal games and won 6 of 17 past regulation. The gap shows up in bigger margins. Ottawa won by two goals or more in 28 of 82 games and lost by two or more in 17. San Jose won by two or more in 17 and lost by two or more in 30.
Ottawa won both meetings in 2025-26. It won 3-2 in San Jose on Saturday 22 November 2025, a game in the half of San Jose’s season we leave out, and 7-4 at home on Sunday 15 March 2026, which falls in the full-season halves.
Pick: Senators -135
Bet the Senators on the moneyline at -135. The gap is 5.3 points toward Ottawa on its home games without Ullmark, against a threshold of 5.0. On the full season the gap is 1.0 and the method passes.
The line read Senators -135 and Sharks +114 on 22 October 2026 at 19:36 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Senators -142 and Sharks +120. The market gave Ottawa 56.3% at the open and 55.1% now, so it has moved 1.2 points toward San Jose.
What kills the bet
A shorter Ottawa price. At -124 or longer the Senators are a bet whatever San Jose is priced at. Against San Jose at +114, they stay a bet down to -139, and past that the gap falls under 5 points.
For the Sharks to become the bet, they would need +229 or longer against Ottawa at -135, or +189 or longer whatever Ottawa is priced at. They are +114.
The rest is on the ice. Ottawa’s injury list has Ullmark, Thomas Chabot (defense, out, upper body), William Eklund (left wing, injured reserve, ankle) and Kurtis MacDermid (left wing, injured reserve, upper body). San Jose’s has Alexander Wennberg (center, out, upper body), Quentin Musty (left wing, injured reserve, upper body) and Kyle Keyser, a goalie on injured reserve with an upper-body injury. Askarov and Nedeljkovic are the two Sharks goalies who have played this season. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over -102 and under -118. Ottawa’s games went over 6.5 in 40 of 82 and San Jose’s in 42 of 82, which is 48.8% and 51.2%. Ottawa’s home games averaged 6.02 goals and San Jose’s road games 6.71.
Our number for the over is 50.0%. With the margin removed the market has the over at 48.3% and the under at 51.7%, so we lean to the over by 1.7 points. Pass on the total.
On the puck line, Ottawa is -1.5 at +180 and San Jose +1.5 at -218, which is 34.3% and 65.7% without the margin. Ottawa won by two goals or more in 28 of 82 games, and San Jose lost by two or more in 30 of 82. Averaged, Ottawa -1.5 covers 35.4% of the time against 34.3% priced, a gap of 1.1 points toward Senators -1.5 at +180. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean on the same side. One bet on this game: the Senators at -135.
Sharks at Senators, Thursday 22 October, 7:00 PM ET, Canadian Tire Centre. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 22 October 2026, 19:36 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs; Ottawa’s goalie appearances from ESPN box scores of all 82 games. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 22 October 2026, 19:36 UTC.