NHL
NHL · Tuesday 13 October
Blues vs Senators Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Senators at -130. Our number sits 3 points above the market’s for Ottawa, and a bet needs 5.
The Ottawa Senators are -130 and the St. Louis Blues +110 at DraftKings. Take the margin out and the market gives Ottawa a 54.3% chance and St. Louis 45.7%. Our number gives the Senators 57.3%. That is 3.0 points on Ottawa’s side, 2 short of the 5 a bet needs. Pass.
How the number is built
The method in one clause: the home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates, how often the home team won at home and how often the visitor lost on the road, with overtime and shootout wins counted as wins. Neutral-site games are left out of both. Neither team played one.
The Senators went 23-12-6 at home: 23 wins, 12 regulation losses, 6 losses after regulation. That is a 56.1% home win rate over 41 games. The Blues went 17-19-5 on the road, 24 losses in 41 games and a 58.5% road loss rate. The average of the two is 57.3% for Ottawa, and St. Louis gets the other 42.7%.
Both halves point the same way. Ottawa won 23 of 41 at home and St. Louis lost 24 of 41 away, so neither rate pulls the other back toward even.
A book sets its two prices so that they add to more than 100%, and the extra is its margin. Here -130 and +110 add to 104.1%. Without it the Senators are 54.3% and the Blues 45.7%.
At -130 the market already pays for most of what last season’s rates show. The 57.3% comes from 41 Ottawa home games and 41 St. Louis road games in 2025-26. No game from 2026-27 is in it, and it measures nothing either roster did over the summer.
The Senators at home, the Blues on the road
Ottawa scored 3.39 goals a game at home and 3.39 on the road. The building changed the other end of the ice: the Senators allowed 2.63 a game at home and 3.37 away. At home they outscored visitors by 0.76 a game. On the road, where they went 21-15-5 and won 51.2% of the time, the margin was 0.02.
The Blues were outscored in both places. On the road they scored 2.80 a game and allowed 3.22, which is 0.42 behind. At home it was 2.83 scored and 3.07 allowed, with a 20-14-7 record and a 48.8% win rate. St. Louis won 17 of 41 on the road, 41.5%.
The Senators finished 44-27-11 with 99 points and outscored opponents by 32 goals over 82 games. Their playoffs lasted four games: Carolina swept them in the first round. The Blues finished 37-33-12 with 86 points, were outscored by 27, and did not play in the playoffs.
The Blues lost 12 games after regulation, one more than Ottawa’s 11. St. Louis played 16 games past 60 minutes and won 4 of them. Ottawa played 17 and won 6. In one-goal games the Blues went 18-9-12 and the Senators 16-10-11.
One pair of results runs against the number. The teams met twice in 2025-26 and the Blues won both by a goal in regulation: 4-3 in St. Louis on 28 November and 2-1 in Ottawa on 6 December. Two games prove nothing, and the method does not use them.
Pick: No bet on the Senators -130
Pass on the moneyline. The gap is 3.0 points toward Ottawa, against a 5-point threshold.
The line opened at Senators -130 and Blues +110. It was the same when it was read on 12 October 2026 at 16:02 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN.
What changes it
A shorter price on Ottawa. The Senators become a bet at -109 or better, whatever the Blues are priced at, and they are -130 now. The Blues would need +166 or longer, against +110 now.
This page states nothing about either lineup on 13 October, the starting goaltenders included. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over -122 and under +102. Ottawa’s home games averaged 6.02 goals in 2025-26, and St. Louis’s road games averaged the same 6.02. Over the full season the Senators’ games went over 5.5 in 45 of 82 and the Blues’ in 39 of 82.
Those over rates, 54.9% and 47.6%, average 51.2%. The over at -122 is priced at 52.6% with the margin removed. The gap is 1.4 points, on the under’s side and far short of 5. Pass on the total.
The puck line has the Senators -1.5 at +190 and the Blues +1.5 at -230, which is 33.1% and 66.9% with the margin out. Ottawa won by two goals or more in 28 of 82 games, and St. Louis lost by two or more in 24 of 82. Averaged, Senators -1.5 lands 31.7% of the time against 33.1% priced, a gap of 1.4 points toward the Blues +1.5. Pass there too. All three markets are within 3 points of our numbers, and the call on the game is no bet on the Senators at -130.
Blues at Senators, Tuesday 13 October, 7:30 PM ET, Canadian Tire Centre. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 12 October 2026, 16:02 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Nothing here states who is available.