NHL
NHL · Tuesday 13 October
Golden Knights vs Predators Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Predators +110. Our number makes Nashville a narrow favourite at home, and the price treats it as the underdog.
The Nashville Predators are +110 and the Vegas Golden Knights -130 at DraftKings. Strip the margin and that is 45.7% for Nashville, 54.3% for Vegas. Our number gives the Predators 51.8%. The gap is 6.1 points toward the home side, and the bar for a bet is 5. It clears by 1.1.
The arithmetic behind 51.8%
Our home win chance is the average of two rates from 2025-26: how often the home team won at home, and how often the visitor lost on the road. A win in overtime or a shootout is a win, and a loss in either is a loss. That is the whole method.
Nashville went 20-17-3 in its own building. That is 20 wins, 17 regulation losses and 3 losses after regulation, a 50.0% home win rate over 40 games. The count is 40 because two Predators games were played in Stockholm against the Pittsburgh Penguins, a 2-1 overtime win on 14 November and a 4-0 loss on 16 November, and neutral-site games stay out of both splits.
Vegas went 19-14-8 on the road. Add the 14 and the 8 and the Golden Knights lost 22 of 41 away, a 53.7% road loss rate. The average of 50.0% and 53.7% is 51.8% for Nashville, which leaves 48.2% for Vegas.
The margin is the cut a book takes by pricing both sides to total more than 100%. Here +110 and -130 total 104.1%. With the cut taken out, the Predators are 45.7%.
Be clear about what the 6.1 points are made of. The Predators were an even-money team at home, no better. The edge comes from the other bench: a visitor that lost 22 of 41 road games is priced at -130 to win this one. Both rates are one season old, and no game from 2026-27 is in them.
A 95-point team that won 39 games
The standings say Vegas was 9 points better than Nashville, 95 to 86. The win column says one game: the Golden Knights finished 39-26-17 and the Predators 38-34-10. Seven of the 9 points are the extra losses after regulation, 17 against 10, which pay a point each without being wins.
Vegas played 26 games that went past 60 minutes and won 9 of them. In shootouts it won 1 of 9. Nashville played 20 past regulation and won 10. In one-goal games the Golden Knights went 16-10-17 and the Predators 20-8-10. Our method counts every one of those 17 as a loss. The standings pay each of them a point, half of what a win pays.
Goals favour Vegas over the full season. The Golden Knights outscored opponents by 15 over 82 games and the Predators were outscored by 22. Split by venue, the picture is flatter. Nashville at home scored 3.12 a game and allowed 3.27. Vegas on the road scored 2.90 and allowed 3.00, so both sides of this game ran slightly negative where it will be played.
At home the Golden Knights were 20-12-9, a 48.8% win rate over 41 games, with 3.56 goals scored a game. On the road the win rate fell to 46.3% and the scoring to 2.90. The Predators away were 17-16-7, a 42.5% win rate over 40 games.
Vegas also has the spring Nashville did not. The Golden Knights won three playoff series, 4-2 over the Utah Mammoth, 4-2 over the Anaheim Ducks and 4-0 over the Colorado Avalanche, then lost to the Carolina Hurricanes 4-2. The Predators did not play a playoff game. None of that is in the home and road rates. A market can price a playoff run, and our number cannot.
The teams met three times in 2025-26 and the Predators won two: 4-2 at T-Mobile Arena on 31 December and 4-1 at Bridgestone Arena on 21 March. Vegas won 7-2 at T-Mobile Arena on 17 January. All three ended in regulation. Three games is a small sample and the method ignores it.
Pick: Predators +110
Predators moneyline, +110. Our 51.8% against the market’s 45.7% is a 6.1-point gap, over the 5-point threshold.
The line opened at Predators +110 and Golden Knights -130 and had not moved at the read. Read on 12 October 2026 at 16:03 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN: Nashville +110, Vegas -130.
What kills the bet
The price shortening. At +114 or longer the Predators are a bet whatever Vegas is priced at. At +110 the bet rests on the pair of prices, and this pair clears. If Nashville moved to +100 against Vegas -120, the market figure would be 47.8% and the gap 4.0. That is a pass.
The other unknown is the lineups. This page states nothing about who dresses for either team on 13 October. Check the lineups before you bet, and check that +110 is still there.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over +110 and under -130. Predators games went over 6.5 in 35 of 82 and Golden Knights games in 38 of 82. Nashville’s home games averaged 6.39 goals and Vegas’s road games 5.90.
The over rates are 42.7% and 46.3%, which average 44.5%, so the under lands 55.5% of the time on these figures. The under at -130 is priced at 54.3% without the margin. A 1.2-point gap is a pass.
On the puck line the Predators are +1.5 at -230 and the Golden Knights -1.5 at +190, or 66.9% and 33.1% with the margin out. Vegas won by two or more in 23 of 82 games. Nashville lost by two or more in 26 of 82. Averaged, Golden Knights -1.5 lands 29.9% of the time, which puts Predators +1.5 at 70.1% against 66.9% priced. The gap is 3.2 points. Pass, and the bet on this game is the moneyline at +110.
Golden Knights at Predators, Tuesday 13 October, 8:45 PM ET, Bridgestone Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 12 October 2026, 16:03 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Nothing here states who is available.