Golden Knights vs Blues Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

No bet on the Blues at +105. With Akira Schmid now on Florida’s roster, our number is run on Vegas’s road games without him and gives St. Louis 51.5% against the price’s 46.8%: a 4.7-point gap, short of the 5 a bet needs.

The St. Louis Blues are +105 and the Vegas Golden Knights -125 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 46.8% for St. Louis and 53.2% for Vegas. The price has the visitors as the favourite. Our number has the Blues slightly ahead.

How 51.5% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neither team played a game at a neutral site.

When a team’s starting goalie from that season will not play, our method is run again on the games without him. Schmid appeared in 34 of Vegas’s 82 games last season, more than any other Golden Knights goalie: Adin Hill played 27 and Carter Hart 18. He is on the Florida Panthers‘ roster now (ESPN team rosters, read 22 October 2026). In the 24 road games Schmid did not play, Vegas went 11-8-5: 8 regulation losses and 5 after regulation, so 13 losses in 24, a 54.2% road loss rate, scoring 70 goals and allowing 76. In the 17 he played, they went 8-6-3.

The Blues went 20-14-7 at Enterprise Center, a 48.8% home win rate over 41 games. Average 48.8% with 54.2% and the Blues are 51.5%, the Golden Knights 48.5%. That is 4.7 points better for St. Louis than the price.

The full road season says the same thing. The Golden Knights went 19-14-8 away from home, 22 losses in 41, a 53.7% road loss rate; on that number St. Louis is 51.2% and the gap is 4.4 points. Both numbers point to the Blues, and both fall short of the bar.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At +105 and -125 they come to 104.3%. Taken out, the Blues are 46.8% and the Golden Knights 53.2%.

Every input is from 2025-26: St. Louis’s 41 home games and Vegas’s 24 road games without Schmid. This season is not in the figures. The Blues are 4-4-1, 2-0-1 at home, and beat Winnipeg 2-1 at home on Tuesday. Joel Hofer has played six of their games and Jordan Binnington three. The Golden Knights are 8-3-0, 3-1-0 on the road, and lost 6-2 at home to Tampa Bay on Tuesday. Hart has played seven of their games and Hill four.

St. Louis at home, Vegas on the road

Over the full season the Blues at home scored 2.83 a game and allowed 3.07, a deficit of 0.24. The Golden Knights on the road scored 2.90 and allowed 3.00, a deficit of 0.10.

The halves the method leaves out: St. Louis on the road went 17-19-5, a 41.5% win rate, scoring 2.80 and allowing 3.22. Vegas at home went 20-12-9, 48.8%, scoring 3.56 and allowing 3.10.

Over the full season these two finished 9 points apart. Vegas went 39-26-17 with 95 points and outscored opponents by 15, then beat Utah 4-2, Anaheim 4-2 and Colorado 4-0 before losing the Final 4-2 to Carolina. St. Louis went 37-33-12 with 86 points, was outscored by 27, and missed the playoffs.

The Golden Knights played a lot of tight games. They went 16-10-17 in one-goal games and won 9 of the 26 that went past regulation. The Blues went 18-9-12 in one-goal games and won 4 of their 16 past 60 minutes. St. Louis lost by two goals or more in 24 of 82 games.

Vegas won two of the three meetings in 2025-26. Both games in St. Louis are in the Golden Knights’ road half: a 4-1 Vegas win on 15 November with Schmid in goal, which is not in the re-run, and a 4-3 Blues win on 2 January with Hart in goal, which is. Vegas’s 4-2 win at home on 10 January is in neither half.

Pick: No bet on the Blues +105

Pass on the moneyline. The gap is 4.7 points toward St. Louis on Vegas’s road games without Schmid, and 4.4 on the full road season, against a threshold of 5.

The line read Blues +105 and Golden Knights -125 on 22 October 2026 at 14:08 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at +114 and -135.

What changes it

A longer St. Louis price. Against Vegas at -125, the Blues would be a bet at +107 or longer; at +116 or longer they are a bet whatever Vegas is priced at.

For the Golden Knights to become the bet, they would have to be +130 or longer. They are -125.

The lineups are the rest of it. ESPN’s injury list has Parker Wotherspoon on injured reserve for Vegas since Wednesday with an upper-body injury. St. Louis has Ross Johnston, Torey Krug, Dillon Dube, Alexey Toropchenko and Tyler Tucker on injured reserve. No goalie is on either list. Check the starters before you bet.

The total and the puck line

The total is 6.5, over +114 and under -135. The Blues’ games went over 6.5 in 33 of 82, the Golden Knights’ in 38 of 82. St. Louis’s home games averaged 5.90 goals, and so did Vegas’s road games.

That is 40.2% and 46.3%, an average of 43.3% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 44.9% and the under at 55.1%, so our number leans to the under by 1.6 points. Pass on the total.

On the puck line, St. Louis is +1.5 at -245 and Vegas -1.5 at +200, which is 68.1% and 31.9% without the margin. Over the full season the Golden Knights won by two goals or more in 23 of 82 games, and the Blues lost by two or more in 24 of 82. Averaged, Vegas -1.5 lands 28.7% of the time against 31.9% priced, a gap of 3.3 points toward Blues +1.5, short of the 5 a bet needs. No bet on this game.

Golden Knights at Blues, Thursday 22 October, 8:00 PM ET, Enterprise Center. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 22 October 2026, 14:08 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs; goalie appearances from ESPN box scores, read 22 October 2026. Rosters: ESPN, read 22 October 2026. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN, read 22 October 2026, 14:10 UTC.