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Serie A · Saturday 17 October
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Internazionale vs Bologna Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Keylor SantosUpdated 15 Oct 2026

Bet Internazionale to win at -175. It stays a bet down to -222.

Our Internazionale vs Bologna prediction starts from the DraftKings board: Inter -175, the draw +295, Bologna +425. That board carries an 8.0% margin. Strip it out and the market reads Inter 58.9%, the draw 23.4%, Bologna 17.6%. Our number puts Inter at 69.0%, the draw at 18.7% and Bologna at 12.3%.

So the market is 10.1 points short on Inter. It sits 4.7 points high on the draw and 5.3 points high on Bologna. We call a side a bet when our chance beats the market’s by 5 points or more, and here only one side does, by a little over double the bar.

Our number gives Bologna 12.3 percent, the market 17.6 percentInter at Bologna: home, draw, away, ours against the market'sOur numberexpected goals18.7%69%The market1X2 prices, margin removed17.6%23.4%58.9%Prices: Bologna +425, draw +295, Inter -175. An outcome is a bet when ours is 5 points or more above the market's.BolognaInter
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 15 October 2026. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-15 20:31 UTC.

A favourite at -175 is not usually where a gap this size turns up. The point of the bet is not that Inter are likely winners, which everyone already prices. It is that -175 charges for 58.9% and our number says 69.0%.

Where the 69.0% comes from

Expected goals for each side are built from two rates: its own scoring at the venue, and the other side’s conceding at the opposite venue, each set against the league average. Those two expected-goal figures go through a Poisson model to give the three outcomes.

This season is too young to use. Bologna have hosted 3 league games and Inter have travelled for 2, while the method asks for 6 at the venue before switching to 2026-27 numbers. So both rates come from 2025-26: Bologna’s 19 home games and Inter’s 19 away games, against that season’s averages over 380 games, 1.28 goals for the home side and 1.15 for the visitor.

Bologna went 6-4-9 at home last season (wins, draws, losses), scoring 1.00 a game and conceding 1.21. Inter went 13-3-3 away, scoring 2.05 and conceding 1.00. Against the averages that is Bologna scoring at 0.78 of the home rate and Inter conceding at 0.78 of it. Going the other way, Inter scored at 1.78 times the away rate and Bologna conceded at 1.05 times it. The result is 2.16 expected goals for Inter and 0.78 for Bologna.

Bologna at home and Inter awayBologna at home and Inter away, this season and lastBologna at home, 2026-27 Italian Serie A0-2-1 in 3scored 1.00 a gameconceded 1.33 a gameBologna at home, 2025-26 Italian Serie A (our number)6-4-9 in 19scored 1.00 a gameconceded 1.21 a gameInter away, 2026-27 Italian Serie A1-1-0 in 2scored 1.50 a gameconceded 1.00 a gameInter away, 2025-26 Italian Serie A (our number)13-3-3 in 19scored 2.05 a gameconceded 1.00 a gameRecord is wins-draws-losses in league games. Our number uses this season at the venue from six games; below that, last season, when that record holds six or more.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 15 October 2026.

The table, this season and last

Inter top the table after 6 games: 5 wins, 1 draw, no defeats, 18 scored, 8 conceded, 16 points. Last season they finished 1st with 87 points. Bologna are 14th with 5 points from 1-2-3, 5 scored and 7 conceded, after finishing 8th with 56 last season.

Bologna and Inter in the tableLeague position and points per game, this season and lastBologna2026-27 Italian Serie A14 of 20, 5 pts in 62025-26 Italian Serie A8 of 20, 56 pts in 38Inter2026-27 Italian Serie A1 of 20, 16 pts in 62025-26 Italian Serie A1 of 20, 87 pts in 38Three points for a win, one for a draw.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 15 October 2026.

This season’s small samples do not argue against the bet. Bologna are 0-2-1 at home, 3 scored and 4 conceded. Inter are 1-1-0 away, 3 scored and 2 conceded. The risk is the usual one with a number built on last season: squads change in a summer, and the method cannot see that until the new games pile up.

Pick: Internazionale -175

Internazionale to win, at -175 at DraftKings. It remains a bet down to -222. Past -222, at today’s margin, the gap drops under 5 points and there is no bet.

What changes it

The price first. Inter are a bet to -222. The draw would need +576 or longer to become one, and Bologna +1169 or longer.

The teams second. Nothing on this page says who plays on 17 October. Read the team news before betting.

The total

DraftKings has 2.5 goals, over -155 and under +120. Without the margin that is 57.2% over and 42.8% under. Our number has the over at 56.4% and the under at 43.6%, close to the market either way. The method bets the result only, so this is for reference.

Last season Bologna’s games went over 2.5 in 17 of 38, and Inter’s in 21 of 38.

The last meetings

ESPN lists five meetings since January 2025, in all competitions: one Inter win, one Bologna win and three draws. The most recent, in May 2026, finished 3-3 with Bologna listed as the home side. The method does not use them.

Last meetings of Bologna and InterBologna and Inter: the last meetings ESPN holds23 May 2026Bologna 3-3 Inter4 Jan 2026Inter 3-1 Bologna19 Dec 2025Bologna 1-1 Inter20 Apr 2025Bologna 1-0 Inter15 Jan 2025Inter 2-2 BolognaHome side first. All competitions ESPN lists for the pair.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 15 October 2026.

Internazionale at Bologna, Italian Serie A, Saturday 17 October, 12:00 PM ET, Renato Dall’Ara. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 15 October 2026, 20:31 UTC. Results and tables: ESPN, read 15 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.