Green Bay Packers vs San Francisco 49ers Picks and Predictions November 24th 2024

Packers vs 49ers November 24th 2024

The over/under line is sitting at 48 points as the 49ers and Packers face off at 4:25 ET on Sunday, November 24th at Lambeau Field in Green Bay. The Packers are favored on the money line at -138 and are -2.5 point favorites on the point spread. This week 12 NFC matchup is being televised on FOX.

San Francisco vs. Green Bay Key Information

Heading into week 12, the 49ers sit at 5-5, putting them 4th in the NFC West. Our projections give them a 26.8% chance of making the playoffs and an 18.8% chance of winning the division. Despite their .500 record, they rank 7th in our NFL power rankings. San Francisco is 4-6 against the spread this season, having been favored in all of their games. Their O/U record is 5-5, with an average of 47.2 points per game in their matchups.

After two straight wins, the 49ers couldn’t keep the momentum going in week 11, losing 20-17 at home to the Seahawks. They were favored by 6 points but couldn’t get the win or cover. The O/U line was 49 points, but the teams combined for just 37. In week 10, San Francisco beat the Buccaneers 23-20, but they didn’t cover the 6.5-point spread. The O/U line was 50 points, with the teams combining for 43.

Heading into week 12, the 49ers rank 10th in our offensive power rankings. They are 8th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 25 points per game, and 2nd in total yards, with 398.9 per game. San Francisco is 4th in passing yards, with 251.1 per game, despite ranking 19th in pass attempts. They also rank 7th in rushing yards and attempts. On 3rd down, the 49ers convert 45.4% of the time, which ranks 4th in the league.

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Brock Purdy threw for 159 yards (21/28) with one touchdown and one interception in week 11 against the Seahawks. Christian McCaffrey had 79 rushing yards on 19 carries, while Jauan Jennings led the team with 10 catches for 91 yards. San Francisco scored 7 points in the 1st and 4th quarters, finishing 7/11 on 3rd down and 2/3 in the red zone.

In their 20-17 loss to the Seahawks, the 49ers’ defense allowed 195 passing yards on 25 completions. They defended the run well, allowing just 94 yards on 23 attempts. Despite their efforts, the 49ers’ offense fell short, managing just 17 points in the game.

The defense also recorded four sacks and one interception, holding Seattle to a 46.2% third-down conversion rate. Although the 49ers gave up 78.1% completions to the Seahawks, they kept them out of the end zone through the air.

Heading into week 12, the Packers are 7-3, putting them 5th in our power rankings and giving them an 88.2% chance of making the playoffs. They are 3rd in the NFC North with a 1-2 division record, but they have a solid 4-1 record on the road. After a week 9 loss to the Lions, Green Bay bounced back with a 20-19 win over the Bears in week 11, though they couldn’t cover the 6-point spread.

The Packers have a +3.7 scoring margin this season and are 4-6 against the spread. They have failed to cover in four straight games, including a narrow win over the Bears and a 10-point loss to the Lions in week 9. Their O/U record is 4-5-1, with the under hitting in two straight games.

Heading into week 12, the Packers rank 12th in our offensive power rankings. They are 8th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 25 points per game, and they rank 4th in yards per game with 387.6. Despite ranking 21st in passing attempts, they are 8th in passing yards, averaging 237.7 per game. On the ground, Green Bay ranks 6th in rushing attempts and 4th in rushing yards, with 149.9 per game. They are 20th in the league in 3rd-down conversions, with a 36.6% success rate, and they rank 18th in red zone conversion percentage, despite being 5th in red zone attempts.

In week 11, Jordan Love threw for 261 yards, completing 13 of 17 passes, with 1 touchdown and 1 interception. Christian Watson led the team with 4 catches for 150 yards. Josh Jacobs added 76 rushing yards on 18 carries. The Packers scored 7 points in the 1st and 3rd quarters and 6 in the 4th, but they struggled on 3rd down, converting only 1 of 5 attempts. However, they did score on 3 of their 5 red zone trips.

Despite giving up 179 yards on the ground to the Bears, the Packers’ defense managed to come out on top in their most recent game, winning 20-19. Chicago ran the ball 34 times and averaged 5.3 yards per attempt. Overall, the Packers allowed 391 yards on 67 plays, with Chicago converting on 56.2% of their third down attempts.

Against the pass, Green Bay gave up 212 yards on 23 completions (74.2% completion rate) and allowed four quarterback hits. However, they did not allow a passing touchdown. The Packers’ defense also recorded three sacks in the game.

Our pick vs. the spread is to take the 49ers to cover as road underdogs in this week 12 matchup between the 49ers and Packers. The point spread lines have the 49ers at +2.5, and we have them winning by a score of 26-19.

For this game, we have a point spread pick and an over/under pick. With the line sitting at 48 points, we are leaning towards taking the under, with our projections pointing to a combined score of 45 points.

49ers hit Green Bay with Packers in pursuit of NFC leaders

A victory against the visiting San Francisco 49ers on Sunday would bolster the Green Bay Packers‘ playoff chances, send a conference rival below .500, and avenge a bitter playoff defeat.

Those seemingly rank in no particular order for the Packers (8-3), although they don’t shy from living at least partially in the past ahead of a Week 12 showdown.

“That’s what you’ve got to sit with all offseason, is going back, watching the game, trying to see what you could have done better,” Packers quarterback Jordan Love said. “What you could have done differently in that game. … Just knowing that’s the team that knocked us out, we’re definitely hungry for this game.”

49ers looking for answers after late loss

San Francisco (5-5) fell to .500 after last week’s 20-17 home loss to Seattle, undone by Geno Smith’s 13-yard touchdown run with 12 seconds to play. The reigning NFC champion 49ers are just 1-3 in division play and can ill afford to lose more ground with NFC West-leading Arizona a game ahead.

The team is entering a critical stretch, as they will visit AFC East leader Buffalo after this trip to Green Bay.

The 49ers could receive a boost with the return of key contributors. Cornerback Charvarius Ward, who missed the past two games following the death of his 1-year-old daughter, practiced Wednesday. Tight end George Kittle also plans to play after a nagging hamstring injury sidelined him against Seattle.

“Very excited,” Kittle said. “Can’t pass up playing the Packers, so no, I will be out there for sure.”

San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy is day-to-day with right shoulder soreness, but coach Kyle Shanahan said Purdy is on track to play.

Familiarity breeds competition

Shanahan and Packers head coach Matt LaFleur share a history as former colleagues. They worked together as low-level assistants with the Texans in 2008, and later on the Washington “dream team” staff, followed by two seasons in Atlanta where Shanahan called the plays and LaFleur coached quarterbacks.

Shanahan secured the most recent win over LaFleur in January’s playoff matchup. However, Green Bay has won seven of the past eight regular-season meetings between the franchises. The past three games at Lambeau Field were all decided by three points, a testament to the tight competition between these teams.

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Packers finding new weapons

Green Bay enters the game on a three-game stretch in 12 days, including back-to-back Thursday games after Sunday’s matchup.

Wide receiver Christian Watson has emerged as a key playmaker, recording a career-best 150 receiving yards on just four catches in last week’s 20-19 win over Chicago. His diving 60-yard reception set up Jordan Love’s go-ahead, 1-yard touchdown run with under three minutes remaining.

“He’s a guy who’s got every measurable known to man in terms of the size, the speed, and it’s not like those were easy plays he was making,” LaFleur said. “He was making tough, contested catches.”

Defensive stakes

San Francisco will aim to pressure Love more effectively than Chicago, which sacked him just once. The 49ers tallied four sacks against Seattle, with Nick Bosa and Leonard Floyd each contributing 1.5. However, Bosa (hip/oblique) didn’t practice Wednesday, and Shanahan noted, “there’s just as good of a chance for him to not play as play.”

Recent history at Lambeau Field favors Green Bay, which has won seven of its past eight home games against San Francisco. Overall, the Packers lead the series 34-28-1.