Heisman Trophy Odds and Predictions 2026: Wide-Open Race

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Heisman Trophy Odds for 2026 feature one of the deepest preseason fields in recent memory. Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr enters as the narrow favorite, but Arch Manning, Dante Moore, Darian Mensah, Julian Sayin, Jeremiah Smith and Trinidad Chambliss all sit close enough to take over the race with one major September performance.

Carr can be found between approximately +675 and +750. Manning ranges from +700 to +850, while Moore and Mensah sit around +950 to +1200. Sayin and Chambliss follow in the +1200 to +1500 range.

That creates an important distinction between the most likely winner and the best preseason wager. Carr has the cleanest combination of efficiency, team ranking and market support, making him our most likely winner. Our value-based Heisman prediction, however, is Manning at +800 or better.

Manning already accounted for 36 touchdowns during his first full season as Texas’ starter and finished 2025 playing his best football. His combination of passing production, rushing touchdowns, SEC visibility and a preseason No. 5 team gives him several different ways to create the signature moments Heisman voters remember.

Chambliss is our favorite second-tier value at +1400 or better after producing nearly 4,500 yards of total offense during Ole Miss’ breakthrough 2025 season. Josh Hoover becomes our preferred midrange option around +1500 or +1600 as he replaces reigning Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza at Indiana.

Jeremiah Smith remains our preferred non-quarterback candidate, but only when +1400 or better is available. Byrum Brown provides the most intriguing true longshot around +6000 after accounting for 42 touchdowns at USF before following coach Alex Golesh to Auburn.

Heisman Trophy Odds Update

The defining characteristic of the current market is how little separation exists between the primary quarterbacks.

Carr is the favorite, but his shortest current number is only slightly below Manning. Moore, Mensah, Sayin and Chambliss are all close enough that one September statement game could completely reorder the board.

That is very different from an award market where one established superstar opens at +250 or +300.

The current prices also vary substantially between sportsbooks. Manning moves from roughly +700 to +850. Sayin reaches +1400. Smith is the most dramatic example, with prices ranging from approximately +800 to +1500.

Those differences make line shopping mandatory. Betting Smith at +800 and betting the same player at +1500 represent completely different long-term propositions.

College football futures can differ sharply between operators, especially outside the top three favorites. Bettors can compare available sportsbooks through the ScoresAndStats sportsbook reviews.

Current Heisman Trophy Odds 2026

Carr and Manning occupy the top of the board, but the market remains wide open behind them.

Moore and Mensah are available around 10-1 at their best numbers. Sayin, Smith and Chambliss form another tightly packed group, followed by Hoover and several experienced quarterbacks in the 20-1 to 30-1 range.

Smith is the only non-quarterback consistently trading among the primary contenders. Malachi Toney is another receiver with Heisman interest but can be found around +3000 to +4000, reflecting how difficult it remains for a receiver to beat a strong quarterback field.

2026 Heisman Trophy Favorites

The favorites share one important characteristic: almost every quarterback is attached to a team expected to compete for the College Football Playoff.

Ohio State begins No. 1, Oregon No. 2, Notre Dame No. 4, Texas No. 5, Indiana No. 6, Miami No. 7 and Ole Miss No. 9.

That matters because modern Heisman voting strongly rewards quarterbacks who combine major statistics with championship relevance.

Carr has the best market position. Manning offers the strongest dual-threat case among the two favorites. Moore and Sayin combine elite passing efficiency with top-two national teams, while Mensah and Chambliss have some of the largest returning yardage totals.

Hoover is the fascinating wild card because he inherits the offense and team context that produced the reigning Heisman winner.

CJ Carr Heisman Trophy Prediction

Carr enters the season as our most likely Heisman winner.

He completed 66.6 percent of his passes for 2,741 yards, 24 touchdowns and only six interceptions in his first full season leading Notre Dame.

The efficiency was even more impressive than the counting totals. Carr averaged 9.4 yards per attempt and finished with a 168.1 passer rating.

Notre Dame enters 2026 ranked No. 4, meaning Carr begins the season with both national attention and a realistic playoff path.

The bullish argument is straightforward. He does not need to reinvent his game. A normal sophomore progression from 2,741 yards and 24 touchdowns toward 3,300-plus yards and 30-plus scores could produce a Heisman-level résumé if Notre Dame remains inside the top five.

The concern is that Carr provides less rushing production than several competing quarterbacks. Manning, Chambliss and Brown can create additional touchdowns with their legs, while Carr will need his passing statistics and team record to carry more of the argument.

Notre Dame also does not play a conference championship game, eliminating one potential final showcase if the race remains close in December.

Still, Carr has the cleanest overall preseason profile.

Most Likely 2026 Heisman Winner: CJ Carr at +700 or better.

Arch Manning Heisman Trophy Prediction

Manning is our final value-based prediction to win the 2026 Heisman Trophy.

His first full season as the Texas starter was uneven early but excellent late.

Manning completed 248 of 404 passes for 3,163 yards and 26 touchdowns while adding 399 rushing yards and a team-high 10 rushing scores.

That gives him 36 touchdowns before even accounting for his receiving score.

The late-season progression is what makes the 2026 ticket appealing. Over his final six games, Manning produced 1,714 passing yards and 20 total touchdowns while averaging roughly 320 yards of offense per game.

He finished the year by accounting for 376 total yards and four touchdowns against Michigan in the Citrus Bowl.

Texas begins No. 5 and gives Manning a schedule built for Heisman moments. Ohio State visits Austin in September before the Longhorns move into an SEC schedule featuring Tennessee, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, LSU and Texas A&M.

That schedule is dangerous for the team’s record but excellent for an individual award campaign. Manning will repeatedly play in nationally significant games where one elite performance can move his price dramatically.

The market also gives us a better price than Carr at several sportsbooks.

Our 2026 Heisman Trophy Prediction: Arch Manning at +800 or better.

Dante Moore Heisman Trophy Prediction

Moore has one of the safest statistical foundations among the contenders.

He completed 71.8 percent of his passes for 3,565 yards and 30 touchdowns during Oregon’s 2025 season.

Oregon enters 2026 ranked No. 2, the highest preseason ranking in program history.

The schedule also contains an obvious potential Heisman moment: Oregon travels to No. 1 Ohio State on November 7.

If Moore enters that game with Oregon undefeated or close to it, a victory in Columbus could move him directly to the top of the board.

The concern is price relative to competition. Moore is already around +950 to +1100 and competes in the same conference with Sayin, Hoover and several other quarterbacks capable of producing championship-level seasons.

We like Moore, but Manning offers more rushing upside at a similar price while Chambliss and Hoover offer larger payouts.

Dante Moore Betting View: Strong contender at +1100 or better, but not our preferred ticket.

Darian Mensah Heisman Trophy Prediction

Mensah may have the strongest pure passing résumé among the primary transfer quarterbacks.

He started 14 games at Duke last season and completed 334 of 500 attempts for 3,973 yards, 34 touchdowns and only six interceptions.

Mensah also led Duke to the ACC championship and earned MVP honors in the conference title game.

He now moves to Miami, which begins 2026 ranked No. 7 after reaching last season’s national championship game.

The fit immediately creates an award path. Miami has an elite receiving centerpiece in Malachi Toney and enough team expectations for every strong performance to receive national attention.

The primary risk is transfer adjustment. He must learn a new offense and establish timing with a new group of receivers while competing against Carr, Manning and Moore, who remain in the same systems they played in last season.

At +1200, that uncertainty is properly compensated. Near +950, we would rather take Manning or Moore.

Darian Mensah Betting View: Playable at +1200 or better.

Julian Sayin Heisman Trophy Prediction

Sayin already came remarkably close to the award in his first full season.

He finished fourth in 2025 Heisman voting after completing 77 percent of his passes for 3,610 yards and 32 touchdowns.

His completion percentage was the third-highest single-season mark in FBS history.

That makes Sayin one of the few preseason contenders who has already proven his statistical résumé can put him in New York.

Ohio State begins No. 1 and provides several enormous showcase games, including trips to Texas and Indiana and a home matchup against Oregon.

The biggest challenge may come from his own teammate.

Smith is the favorite to win the Fred Biletnikoff Award and is also one of the shortest Heisman choices. If Smith produces 1,500 receiving yards and 15 touchdowns, the two Ohio State stars could split credit for the same offensive success.

That is enough to keep Sayin behind Manning at similar odds, but +1400 becomes attractive.

Julian Sayin Betting View: Buy at +1400; pass closer to +1200.

Trinidad Chambliss Heisman Trophy Value Pick

Chambliss is our favorite value immediately behind the primary favorites.

He threw for 3,937 yards and 22 touchdowns while completing 66 percent of his passes during Ole Miss’ 2025 season.

More importantly for a Heisman handicap, Chambliss also added 527 rushing yards and eight touchdowns.

That dual-threat production gives him a ceiling most traditional passers cannot match.

Ole Miss enters 2026 ranked No. 9 after making the College Football Playoff semifinal last season. Chambliss therefore no longer has to create national recognition from scratch.

The Rebels also feature Doak Walker favorite Kewan Lacy, which can work both ways. Lacy may take rushing touchdowns away from Chambliss, but an elite running game can make the quarterback dramatically more efficient and keep Ole Miss in playoff contention.

Chambliss becomes particularly attractive because +1500 is available at the longest current price.

Best Second-Tier Heisman Value: Trinidad Chambliss at +1400 or better.

Josh Hoover Heisman Trophy Value Pick

Hoover enters one of the most interesting situations in college football.

He transfers from TCU to Indiana one season after Mendoza won the Heisman, led the Hoosiers to a 16-0 record and captured the national championship.

Hoover arrives with far more experience than a normal first-year starter. He threw for 3,472 yards and 29 touchdowns at TCU in 2025 and enters the season with more than 9,600 career passing yards.

Indiana does not need him to replicate Mendoza immediately.

The attraction is the environment. Curt Cignetti has already demonstrated that his system can transform an efficient quarterback season into a Heisman-winning campaign when paired with elite team success.

Indiana begins No. 6, meaning Hoover inherits national visibility rather than having to build it.

The risk is that Indiana may ask him to do less than TCU did. A stronger defense and rushing game could reduce his attempt volume, and his 13 interceptions last season must come down substantially.

Those concerns explain why +1500 or +1600 is required.

Best Midrange Heisman Value: Josh Hoover at +1500 or better.

Jeremiah Smith Heisman Trophy Prediction

Smith is easily the strongest non-quarterback candidate in the current market.

He caught 87 passes for 1,243 yards and 12 touchdowns last season after producing 1,315 yards and 15 scores as a freshman.

That gives Smith 2,558 receiving yards and 27 touchdowns before beginning his junior year.

His talent is not the concern. The price and positional hurdle are.

Quarterbacks have won eight of the last 10 Heisman Trophies. The two exceptions were extraordinary cases: DeVonta Smith’s dominant 2020 receiving season and Travis Hunter’s unprecedented two-way campaign in 2024.

Smith therefore cannot simply be the best receiver in college football. He likely needs a truly exceptional season while several top quarterbacks fail to separate themselves.

The sportsbook disparity becomes critical. At +800, we would rather bet Sayin and receive the quarterback path from the same offense. At +1400 or +1500, Smith becomes much more interesting.

Best Non-Quarterback Heisman Candidate: Jeremiah Smith at +1400 or better.

Byrum Brown Heisman Trophy Longshot

Brown is our favorite true longshot because the statistical ceiling already exists.

He led all FBS quarterbacks with 42 total touchdowns in 2025 while averaging 347.2 yards of offense per game.

Brown completed 66.3 percent of his passes for 3,158 yards and 28 touchdowns while rushing for 1,008 yards and 14 scores.

Those are already Heisman-level individual statistics.

The reason he is available between roughly +5000 and +6600 is team context.

Brown moves from USF to Auburn, a program that begins outside the preseason Top 25 and must navigate an SEC schedule rather than an American Conference schedule.

The transition is softened by one major factor: Brown followed head coach Alex Golesh to Auburn. He does not have to learn an entirely new offensive philosophy.

If Auburn unexpectedly starts 5-1 or 6-1 while Brown continues producing 300-plus total yards per game, a 60-1 ticket will not remain anywhere near that price.

This is still a small speculative wager because Auburn’s team ceiling is less established than the favorites.

Best Heisman Longshot: Byrum Brown at +6000 or better.

2026 Heisman Trophy Contender Tiers

The current field is deep enough that separating contenders by profile is more useful than simply ranking sportsbook odds.

Carr and Manning occupy the first tier. Moore, Mensah, Sayin and Chambliss have almost equally credible football arguments but require either a small statistical jump, a transfer adjustment or a larger team accomplishment.

Hoover, Stockton and several quarterbacks around 20-1 to 30-1 can become serious candidates with elite September starts.

Smith sits in his own non-quarterback category because his talent and team context are strong enough to overcome some of the traditional positional disadvantage.

Why Quarterbacks Dominate the Heisman Trophy

Quarterbacks have won eight of the last 10 Heisman Trophies entering 2026.

The reason is partly statistical and partly structural.

Quarterbacks touch the football on almost every offensive snap. They accumulate passing yards, touchdowns and increasingly rushing production while receiving credit for team victories.

The modern College Football Playoff also increases the importance of quarterback-driven championship teams. A quarterback leading a top-five program receives national exposure almost every week.

Receivers and running backs need more exceptional statistical separation.

Smith is the clearest receiver capable of overcoming the positional bias. Ole Miss running back Lacy is the most interesting back after rushing for 1,567 yards and 24 touchdowns last season, but even those numbers leave him at a dramatically longer Heisman price than his Doak Walker Award odds.

Games That Could Shape the 2026 Heisman Race

Heisman voting is heavily influenced by signature games, and several candidates already have obvious opportunities on the schedule.

Manning hosts Ohio State on September 12. That game creates a direct Heisman comparison with Sayin and Smith before conference play even begins.

Texas then travels to Tennessee, faces Oklahoma in Dallas and later plays Ole Miss, LSU and Texas A&M.

Moore receives his largest opportunity on November 7 when Oregon visits Ohio State. The matchup could simultaneously feature Moore, Sayin and Smith with Big Ten and playoff implications.

Sayin also travels to Texas in September and Indiana in October, giving him direct opportunities against Manning and Hoover.

The advantage of these head-to-head games is that voters do not need to compare statistics in isolation. One quarterback can directly seize the national conversation by outperforming another top candidate.

Recent Heisman Trophy Winners

Recent winners demonstrate both the quarterback advantage and the value of looking beyond the shortest preseason prices.

Mendoza entered 2025 around 35-1 before winning. Hunter was also approximately 35-1 before his 2024 campaign.

Jayden Daniels opened around 15-1 in 2023, while Joe Burrow was roughly 200-1 before his historic 2019 season.

That history is the strongest argument for maintaining some exposure beyond Carr and Manning.

How to Bet Heisman Trophy Futures

1. Prioritize Team Relevance

A quarterback does not need to play for the national champion, but Heisman winners are usually attached to teams that remain relevant deep into November.

That is one reason Carr, Manning, Moore, Mensah, Sayin and Chambliss dominate our board. All six begin on top-10 teams.

2. Look for Rushing Touchdowns

Dual-threat quarterbacks can build Heisman statistics faster than traditional passers.

Manning scored 10 rushing touchdowns last season. Chambliss added eight, while Brown produced 14.

Those rushing scores create another route to 40-plus total touchdowns without requiring 4,500 passing yards.

3. Do Not Overpay Before Week 1

The history of this award repeatedly rewards bettors willing to look beyond the shortest preseason names.

Mendoza and Hunter both began their winning seasons around +3500. Burrow was far longer.

A six- or seven-to-one favorite can absolutely win, but that price leaves very little margin for an early loss, injury or statistical disappointment.

4. Shop Every Sportsbook

The Smith market illustrates the importance of comparison shopping. A difference between +800 and +1500 nearly doubles the profit on the exact same prediction.

Similar differences exist on Manning, Chambliss, Hoover, Brown and several longer-shot candidates.

5. Use September to Find the Next Breakout

There is no need to build the entire Heisman portfolio before the first kickoff.

A quarterback outside the current top 15 can produce 400 yards and five touchdowns against a ranked opponent and move from 60-1 to 20-1 overnight.

Weekly team matchups and form can be monitored through the ScoresAndStats college football previews and predictions.

Final Heisman Trophy Odds and Predictions

Carr enters the season as the most likely winner, but this is far too competitive a market to treat +675 or +700 as an automatic bet.

Notre Dame is ranked fourth, Carr already owns elite efficiency and a normal second-year statistical jump can place him firmly in New York.

Manning receives our final betting prediction because the longest +800 to +850 prices offer more upside while his dual-threat production creates a higher touchdown ceiling.

Texas also gives him an almost perfect Heisman schedule. Games against Ohio State, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Ole Miss, LSU and Texas A&M provide repeated opportunities to produce the signature performances that move award markets.

Chambliss becomes our best second-tier value. Nearly 4,000 passing yards plus eight rushing touchdowns already provide the statistical blueprint, and Ole Miss begins No. 9 after reaching the playoff semifinal.

Hoover is the midrange candidate we want at +1500 or better because Indiana has already proven its offensive structure can produce a Heisman quarterback. He does need to improve his turnover rate.

Smith is the best non-quarterback but should only be played at the longest available numbers. If one sportsbook offers +800 and another +1400 or +1500, there is no reason to accept the shorter line.

Brown rounds out the card as the true longshot. A quarterback who already produced 3,158 passing yards, 1,008 rushing yards and 42 total touchdowns belongs on the Heisman radar, even if the move from USF to Auburn creates a significantly harder schedule.

Our projected New York finalists are Manning, Carr, Sayin and Chambliss, with Manning winning a close race.

Our 2026 Heisman Trophy Prediction: Arch Manning at +800 or better.

Our Most Likely Heisman Winner: CJ Carr.

Our Best Second-Tier Value: Trinidad Chambliss at +1400 or better.

Our Best Midrange Value: Josh Hoover at +1500 or better.

Our Best Non-Quarterback Pick: Jeremiah Smith at +1400 or better.

Our Best Heisman Longshot: Byrum Brown at +6000 or better.

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