Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx Picks, Predictions and Odds July 13th 2026

Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx Picks, Predictions and Odds: Can Phoenix score enough to threaten the total?

Phoenix Mercury visits Minnesota Lynx on Monday, July 13, 2026, at Target Center in Minneapolis. Tipoff is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. ET. Phoenix is 8-16 and has lost three straight, while Minnesota is 17-6 after consecutive wins.

The game belongs with today’s WNBA picks and previews because the market has made an aggressive adjustment toward Minnesota. The Lynx opened -10.5 and moved to -12.5, while the total fell from 170.5 to 169.5.

Minnesota is the clearly stronger team and already beat Phoenix by 34 points this season. The betting question is whether laying a large number still offers value, or whether Phoenix’s offensive instability creates a cleaner angle on the total.

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Game Info: What are the date, time, venue and broadcast details?

• Game: Phoenix Mercury at Minnesota Lynx
• League: WNBA regular season
• Date: Monday, July 13, 2026
• Tipoff: 9:00 p.m. ET
• Arena: Target Center
• Location: Minneapolis, Minnesota
• Broadcast: Peacock, NBCSN, Victory+ MIN and Merc+ Arizona’s Family 3TV
• Records: Phoenix Mercury 8-16; Minnesota Lynx 17-6

Phoenix is finishing a difficult stretch after a 48-point loss at Las Vegas. Minnesota returns home with Olivia Miles back in the rotation but Napheesa Collier still unavailable. That combination matters because the Lynx retain strong creation and defensive depth, yet their half-court ceiling is not identical without Collier.

Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx Odds: Is the market adjustment already complete?

These are the current consensus betting lines from the early Monday market. Bettors should monitor the latest WNBA odds because the spread has already moved two points and the total has moved one point lower.

Head-to-Head and Recent Meetings: What should carry forward from Minnesota’s 34-point win?

Minnesota defeated Phoenix 111-77 on June 1. The Lynx shot at an unsustainably high level in that meeting, so the 34-point margin should not be copied directly into a projection. The useful part is the matchup shape: Minnesota created efficient shots early, controlled tempo and forced Phoenix to chase from a poor position.

Phoenix needs a much more disciplined defensive plan to prevent another avalanche. The Mercury cannot trade transition possessions with Minnesota and expect the underdog price to protect them. Their best path is a slower game built around Alyssa Thomas creating from the half court and limiting live-ball turnovers.

Phoenix Mercury Recent Form: Can the offense recover from a 58-point performance?

Phoenix enters on a three-game losing streak after falling 106-58 at Las Vegas. The Mercury shot 34.8 percent in that loss and were outscored 42-21 from three. One result can be dismissed as an extreme, but the broader profile is also below average: Phoenix scores 82.6 points per game, allows 86.6 and averages only 18.9 assists.

Kahleah Copper remains the primary scorer at 20.3 points per game, while Thomas supplies 14.2 points, 6.8 rebounds and 7.9 assists. That pairing gives Phoenix a workable base, but the offense becomes cramped when secondary shooters do not punish help. Monique Akoa Makani’s efficient perimeter shooting is important because Minnesota will be comfortable loading the paint against Thomas drives.

The spread is large enough to tempt an underdog case, especially at +12.5. Still, Phoenix has to demonstrate that it can reach the mid-70s before the points become attractive. The recent scoring floor makes the total a more direct way to express skepticism about the Mercury offense.

Minnesota Lynx Recent Form: Does Olivia Miles’ return restore the offensive ceiling?

Minnesota has won two straight, including a 90-85 victory over New York. Miles returned from a two-game calf absence with 23 points, four made threes, five rebounds and four assists. Kayla McBride added 25, giving the Lynx enough perimeter creation to survive without Collier.

The full-season numbers remain among the strongest in the league. Minnesota averages 90.0 points while allowing 80.9, shoots 48 percent from the field, collects 36.5 rebounds and creates 21.3 assists per game. Courtney Williams, McBride, Natasha Howard and Nia Coffey keep the ball moving, and the defense can pressure the rim without conceding easy transition opportunities.

The question is margin, not winner. Minnesota can dominate the matchup and still fail to cover -12.5 if the fourth quarter becomes a low-intensity bench game. That is why the total offers a cleaner price-sensitive route than paying -800 on the moneyline or laying a spread that has moved two full points.

Starting Lineups and Rotation Matchup: Which five-player groups matter most?

These are projected starters based on the latest available rotations, not confirmed lineups. Phoenix may adjust its frontcourt because Natasha Mack is out, while Minnesota continues to start without Collier.

Phoenix Mercury Projected Starters

1. Monique Akoa Makani, guard
2. Kahleah Copper, guard
3. Alyssa Thomas, forward
4. DeWanna Bonner, forward
5. Krystyna Linskens, center

Minnesota Lynx Projected Starters

1. Olivia Miles, guard
2. Courtney Williams, guard
3. Kayla McBride, wing
4. Nia Coffey, forward
5. Natasha Howard, center

Minnesota has the cleaner spacing and more two-way balance in its expected first unit. Phoenix can switch more actions through Thomas and Bonner, but it gives up size at center and must protect the defensive glass. The Lynx second unit also has more room to maintain structure if the game becomes one-sided.

Injuries and Player Availability: Which absence matters most to the handicap?

The Phoenix Mercury injury report lists Natasha Mack out and Jovana Nogic unavailable, while Sami Whitcomb is expected to be available despite a knee designation. Mack’s absence is important because Phoenix loses rebounding and rim protection against a Minnesota team that already owns the stronger interior profile.

The Minnesota Lynx injury report lists Napheesa Collier out with an ankle injury, though she has been cleared to resume practice work. Emma Cechova remains out for the season with a knee injury.

Collier’s absence lowers Minnesota’s offensive ceiling, but Miles’ return restores a primary ball handler and pull-up shooter. The current total already reflects some of that missing-star context, which is why any late rotation change still matters at 169.5.

Key Matchup Factors: Where can the game be decided?

Minnesota’s advantage starts with shot quality. The Lynx shoot 47.7 percent as a team and 37.7 percent from three, while Phoenix has struggled to create assisted offense when Thomas is forced to operate against a packed paint. Miles and Williams can attack early gaps, then McBride and Coffey punish the help.

Rebounding is the second pressure point. Minnesota averages 36.5 boards and has a stronger available interior rotation with Howard. Phoenix is already missing Mack, so the Mercury may need to send extra bodies to the glass. That can limit transition opportunities and naturally slow their scoring pace.

The late-game script also favors the under. A double-digit Minnesota lead reduces the need for Phoenix to extend the game with repeated fouls, and the Lynx can shorten possessions with their bench. The WNBA betting guide offers useful context for handling large spreads when the favorite is clearly superior but the best value may sit in a correlated total.

Best Bet: Which market offers the strongest value?

The best bet is under 169.5 at -110. Phoenix has scored 58, 89 and 66 during its three-game losing streak, and the 89-point result required a much more competitive offensive environment than this matchup is likely to provide. Minnesota’s defense allows only 80.9 points per game and can force the Mercury into long half-court possessions.

Minnesota is capable of doing most of the scoring damage, which is the main risk after the Lynx reached 111 in the first meeting. Still, Collier remains out, the spread suggests a potential fourth-quarter slowdown and the total has already moved down from 170.5. A projection in the mid-160s leaves a modest but usable cushion.

Minnesota -12.5 is a secondary lean, not the primary wager. The favorite has every matchup advantage, but laying two more points than the opener introduces unnecessary backdoor risk. The under remains playable at 169 or better at -115 or lower.

Best Bet: Under 169.5 (-110).

WNBA Picks and Handicappers on ScoresAndStats: What is the best next step?

Bettors who want another view of the Monday slate can compare today’s WNBA picks after reviewing the matchup analysis. ScoresAndStats also lets readers compare top sports handicappers, check the handicapper leaderboard and decide whether premium pick access belongs in their process.

Those tools are most useful when paired with the latest market. A two-point spread move and a one-point total move mean the price now is not the same bet that was available at the opener.

Final Prediction: What is the most likely game script?

Minnesota should control the glass, create the cleaner three-point looks and steadily separate once Phoenix’s first action is taken away. The projected score is Minnesota 92, Phoenix 75.

That outcome supports under 169.5 and gives Minnesota a smaller spread lean. The biggest threat to the total is another extreme Lynx shooting performance, especially if Phoenix turnovers create repeated transition chances.

Betting should be treated as entertainment, and the final wager should reflect the latest line and confirmed availability before tipoff.

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