NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds and Predictions 2026

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NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds and Predictions for 2026 still begin with Myles Garrett at +450, but the board behind him has changed substantially since the July update. Will Anderson Jr. and Aidan Hutchinson have become the clear top challengers, while Micah Parsons has drifted from roughly +1000 to around +5000 because mid-October is considered a realistic, but not guaranteed, return target following knee surgery.

Garrett remains the most likely winner, although knee swelling has limited his recent training-camp participation and makes his short price less appealing. Hutchinson is the ScoresAndStats prediction at +800 or better, Nik Bonitto offers the strongest midrange case at +1400, and Brian Burns is the preferred longshot at +2000.

The Los Angeles Rams are one of the leading teams in the current Super Bowl odds and predictions, giving Garrett a championship-level supporting environment. The award still depends primarily on individual disruption, availability, national visibility and whether a defender’s production exceeds the expectations built into his price.

Quick Betting Takeaways

• Market favorite: Myles Garrett at +450.
• Best top-tier value: Aidan Hutchinson at +800 or better.
• Best midrange option: Nik Bonitto at +1400 or better.
• Best longshot: Brian Burns at +2000 or better.

Current NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds 2026

Myles Garrett is the only player shorter than +700 in the current NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds. Anderson and Hutchinson form the primary challenger tier, while Crosby, Bonitto and Bosa provide the next group of established pass rushers.

Odds last checked: August 28, 2026. Prices can change and may differ significantly between sportsbooks.

Line shopping is especially important in an awards market. Crosby has appeared at prices ranging from approximately +1200 to beyond +2000, while Burns has been available from +2000 to above +3000. A move from +1200 to +2000 reduces the break-even probability from 7.7 percent to 4.8 percent, which can turn an unappealing wager into a playable one.

Bettors should compare the available NFL odds before placing a season-long position. Futures markets generally have lower limits and less uniform pricing than standard moneylines, spreads and totals.

What Changed in the NFL DPOY Market?

The biggest change since the previous update is the removal of Micah Parsons from the leading tier. Parsons was previously priced near +1000, but his odds moved toward +5000 after his recovery timeline indicated that a return around mid-October was realistic rather than certain.

• Myles Garrett remains favored: His price has stayed near +450 following his trade to Los Angeles and record-setting 2025 season.
• Will Anderson Jr. has shortened: Anderson moved from approximately +800 to +700 after finishing second in the 2025 voting.
• Aidan Hutchinson has strengthened: Hutchinson is now +800 after previously appearing between +850 and +1000.
• Maxx Crosby has drifted: Crosby was available near +750 or +800 in July but has moved to +1200 on the current board.
• Jared Verse is now a longer shot: Verse moved to Cleveland in the Garrett trade and has drifted toward +2500.

Garrett’s recent knee swelling is another development to monitor. The Rams have described their approach as cautious, but Garrett remained out of team practice during the final full week of August. That does not remove him from consideration, although it creates added risk for bettors being asked to accept the shortest price.

How to Handicap NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds

The best way to handicap NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds is to identify players capable of producing elite pass-rush numbers while remaining healthy and nationally relevant for the entire regular season. Edge defenders have won nine of the past 15 awards, with defensive tackle Aaron Donald claiming three additional trophies during that period.

The Associated Press NFL awards voting process uses a nationwide panel of 50 media members. Each voter ranks five candidates, with first through fifth place worth 10, five, three, two and one point. Ballots are completed before the playoffs, so postseason production does not affect the award.

The most important DPOY handicapping factors are:

1. Pass-rush production: Sacks remain the most visible statistic, but pressures, quarterback hits, forced fumbles and tackles for loss help separate close candidates.
2. Availability: Missing several games can eliminate a contender unless his remaining production is historically dominant.
3. Defensive success: A leading role on an elite defense creates more national attention and high-leverage opportunities.
4. Individual recognition: Previous All-Pro selections, award finishes and established reputations influence how quickly a player enters the conversation.
5. Market price: A strong player is not automatically a strong bet. The available odds must provide enough compensation for injury, competition and statistical uncertainty.

Awards odds can change dramatically after one multi-sack game. The ScoresAndStats Expert Betting Guide provides additional information on implied probability, line shopping and managing long-term futures positions.

2026 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Favorites

Myles Garrett, Los Angeles Rams (+450)

Myles Garrett is the most likely winner after producing one of the strongest pass-rushing seasons in NFL history. He recorded a league-record 23 sacks in 2025, added 33 tackles for loss and received all 50 first-place votes to win his second Defensive Player of the Year award.

The move from Cleveland to Los Angeles gives Garrett a new supporting environment. The Rams possess an offense capable of building leads, which could create more obvious passing situations and additional opportunities for Garrett to attack opposing quarterbacks.

Garrett has accumulated 125.5 career sacks and has reached double figures in eight consecutive seasons. His production does not depend on a speculative breakout, and that established floor explains why he is priced considerably shorter than every other defender.

The betting problem is the +450 price. It carries an implied probability of approximately 18.2 percent before sportsbook margin. Garrett must remain healthy, adjust immediately to a new defense and overcome the historical difficulty of winning consecutive DPOY awards.

Only Lawrence Taylor, J.J. Watt and Aaron Donald have won the award in back-to-back seasons. Garrett is capable of joining them, but bettors accepting +450 receive limited protection against an ordinary statistical decline from his record-setting 2025 performance.

The knee swelling that limited Garrett’s August practice participation adds another reason not to chase the favorite. Garrett becomes a more attractive wager at +550 or longer. At +450, waiting for confirmation that he has returned to full practice is the more disciplined approach.

Will Anderson Jr., Houston Texans (+700)

Will Anderson Jr. is the safest challenger to Garrett after finishing second in the 2025 voting. Anderson earned first-team All-Pro recognition while recording 12 sacks, 20 tackles for loss, 23 quarterback hits and three forced fumbles.

His pressure numbers were even stronger than the sack total. Anderson generated 85 pressures, ranked second in the league, and produced a 20.5 percent pressure rate. Forty-eight of those pressures occurred on third down, demonstrating that his disruption came in situations voters and viewers were likely to notice.

The Houston Texans allowed the fewest yards per game and the second-fewest points per game in 2025. Anderson therefore does not need a team-level defensive transformation. He needs to convert more of his existing pressure into sacks and remain the most recognizable player on an elite unit.

The +700 price implies a probability of 12.5 percent. That is reasonable for a returning runner-up, but it provides less upside than the +800 available on Hutchinson. Anderson is playable near +800 or longer. At +700, he is a strong candidate but not the strongest price-based selection.

Best NFL Defensive Player of the Year Value: Aidan Hutchinson (+800)

Aidan Hutchinson offers the best combination of current price, established production and additional statistical upside. His +800 odds imply an 11.1 percent probability, which appears modest for a returning finalist who generated more sacks and total pressures than Anderson in 2025.

Hutchinson recorded a career-high 14.5 sacks, four forced fumbles, 35 quarterback hits and an interception. He also led the league with 100 total pressures and finished third in pass-rush win percentage.

Those numbers produced second-team All-Pro recognition and established Hutchinson as more than a speculative breakout candidate. A move from 14.5 sacks toward 17 or 18 would give him the visible counting statistics required to challenge Garrett, even if his overall pressure rate remains similar.

The Detroit Lions finished 9-8 in 2025. A return to playoff contention would strengthen Hutchinson’s case by attaching his individual production to a broader defensive and team rebound.

The primary concern is whether Detroit’s overall defense can give Hutchinson enough high-leverage opportunities. He may also experience natural regression after producing 100 pressures, an extremely difficult total to repeat.

Hutchinson is playable at +800 or better. The wager remains reasonable at +750, but below +650 the price no longer provides enough separation from Anderson or Garrett. Bettors should avoid chasing a major preseason move before Hutchinson produces regular-season results.

Best Midrange NFL DPOY Bet: Nik Bonitto (+1400)

Nik Bonitto is the strongest midrange option at +1400. The price implies a probability of approximately 6.7 percent, which appears low for a returning finalist who recorded 14 sacks during a 14-win Denver season.

Bonitto added 28 quarterback hits, 14 tackles for loss and two forced fumbles while earning his second Pro Bowl selection. He has now produced consecutive seasons at a level that places him among the league’s most effective edge rushers.

The Denver Broncos should remain nationally relevant, and another strong team defense would keep Bonitto visible throughout the season. Reaching 15 or more sacks while Denver competes for one of the AFC’s best records would give him a realistic winning profile.

The concern is that Denver has several recognized defenders, including former DPOY winner Patrick Surtain II. A balanced defense can improve Bonitto’s matchups while also distributing credit among multiple players.

The current +1400 is playable, while +1600 or longer would qualify as a stronger entry point. Once the number falls below +1200, Hutchinson becomes the more attractive selection at comparable odds.

Best NFL Defensive Player of the Year Longshot: Brian Burns (+2000)

Brian Burns is the preferred DPOY longshot at +2000 because his 2025 production already exceeded what most longshots must project. Burns recorded career highs with 16.5 sacks, 31 quarterback hits, 22 tackles for loss and three forced fumbles while starting every game.

His 16.5 sacks ranked second in the NFL behind Garrett, and he earned second-team All-Pro honors. A +2000 price carries an implied probability of approximately 4.8 percent, which appears low for a player who has already demonstrated the statistical ceiling required to enter the race.

The New York Giants finished 4-13, but their low starting point creates a potentially useful narrative. If the Giants become competitive under John Harbaugh while Burns remains near the top of the sack leaderboard, voters will have both individual production and visible team improvement to consider.

Burns also carries significant risk. Repeating 16.5 sacks is difficult, the Giants may remain outside the playoff race, and younger defenders such as Abdul Carter and Kayvon Thibodeaux can divide attention along the defensive front.

Burns is playable at +2000, with +2500 or longer offering the strongest value. At prices shorter than +1800, Bonitto provides the cleaner combination of production and team context.

Other NFL Defensive Player of the Year Contenders

Maxx Crosby, Las Vegas Raiders (+1200)

Maxx Crosby’s move from approximately +750 or +800 to +1200 has made his price more reasonable. He recorded 10 sacks in 2025, but the Raiders finished 3-14 and provided limited team success to support his individual case.

Crosby likely needs at least 15 sacks and a meaningful improvement from Las Vegas to compete with Garrett, Anderson and Hutchinson. The current +1200 is not unreasonable, but +1500 or longer would better account for the team and statistical requirements.

Nick Bosa, San Francisco 49ers (+1800)

Nick Bosa has already won the award and remains capable of returning to the top tier. His path requires a healthy full season, a major sack total and a San Francisco defense that re-enters the national conversation.

The +1800 price is long enough to consider, but Bosa needs more than a return to solid production. He must separate from several younger pass rushers who produced stronger 2025 résumés.

T.J. Watt, Pittsburgh Steelers (+2000)

T.J. Watt carries the same +2000 price as Burns and owns a stronger career award résumé. The 2021 winner remains a viable candidate if he returns to the top of the sack leaderboard and Pittsburgh produces another high-level defense.

Burns is the preferred wager because his 2025 production was substantially stronger. Watt needs a significant return to his previous peak rather than a continuation of his most recent season.

Trey Hendrickson and Jared Verse (+2500)

Trey Hendrickson and Jared Verse both carry +2500 prices after changing teams. Hendrickson joins a Baltimore defense expected to contend immediately, while Verse moves to Cleveland as part of the Garrett trade.

Both players possess pass-rushing ability, but each must adjust to a new system and establish himself as the clear centerpiece of a new defense. Burns offers a stronger longshot profile because he already produced 16.5 sacks in his current environment.

Should Bettors Back Micah Parsons?

Micah Parsons should be avoided at his current preseason price despite drifting toward +5000. The longer odds appear attractive compared with his former +1000 position, but they reflect a major loss of regular-season availability rather than a simple market overreaction.

Parsons recorded 12.5 sacks in 14 games and finished third in the 2025 DPOY voting before suffering a torn ACL. His rehabilitation also includes recovery from meniscus surgery, and he has not committed to a specific return date.

A mid-October return would likely cost Parsons at least the first five games. That leaves almost no margin for a gradual increase in playing time, missed practices or ordinary post-surgery inconsistency. He would need to produce at an elite pace immediately after returning.

Bettors should wait until Parsons is activated and his workload becomes clear. A price of +6000 or longer could become interesting if he returns by Week 6 without a significant snap limitation, but accepting +5000 before that information is available does not provide enough compensation for the uncertainty.

ScoresAndStats NFL Defensive Player of the Year Prediction

Aidan Hutchinson is the ScoresAndStats prediction to win the 2026 NFL Defensive Player of the Year award at +800 or better. Garrett remains the most likely individual winner, but Hutchinson provides a stronger relationship between realistic probability and available price.

The +800 odds require Hutchinson to win more than 11.1 percent of the time to produce positive theoretical value before sportsbook margin. His 14.5 sacks, league-leading 100 pressures, four forced fumbles and previous finalist status support a realistic chance above that threshold.

Hutchinson also has a clear route to improving his résumé. Converting a slightly larger portion of his pressure into sacks could move him toward 17 or 18, while a Detroit return to playoff contention would strengthen the team component of his case.

The main risk is that his extraordinary pressure total regresses without a corresponding rise in sacks. The recommendation would also weaken if Detroit’s defense struggles or Hutchinson experiences any availability concerns before the regular season.

Bet Hutchinson at +800 or better. The wager remains acceptable near +750, but bettors should wait or choose another contender if the price falls below +650 before he produces meaningful regular-season results.

Weekly matchups, injuries and defensive performance will eventually become more important than preseason projections. Bettors can follow those developments through the latest NFL picks and previews before adding to or changing a futures position.

Our 2026 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Prediction: Aidan Hutchinson at +800 or better.

Recent NFL Defensive Player of the Year Winners

Recent NFL Defensive Player of the Year winners demonstrate the market’s preference for defenders who affect the quarterback. Edge rushers or defensive linemen have won eight of the past 10 awards, with Patrick Surtain II and Stephon Gilmore providing the two exceptions at cornerback.

Garrett won the 2025 award unanimously after breaking the single-season sack record. A victory in 2026 would make him the fourth player to win consecutive DPOY awards and give him three trophies in four seasons.

NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds FAQs