2025-26 CFP Semifinal Round Odds and Predictions

Even the most casual College Football fans had to enjoy what we saw in the Quarterfinal Round of the Playoffs. Three out of four games ended in an upset and two Championship favorites were eliminated like a 2025 calendar.

What we are left with, is a final four showdown between teams that were not expected to be there at the start of the season. In fact, by the start of November, these four squads were still on the outside looking in at Playoff run.

Now, they are set up to provide a Semifinal Round for the ages.

The first Semi matchup features two teams predicted to lose in their Quarterfinal games as the Miami Hurricanes and Ole Miss Rebels battle in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl on Thursday, January 8. The Hurricanes put the entire CFP field on notice with a double-digit win over Ohio State in the QFs.

The second Semifinal game is a Big Ten clash as the Oregon Ducks and Indiana Hoosiers play in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl on Friday, January 9. This will be the second time that these two teams meet on the field this year.

Indiana is coming off a historic win as they beat Alabama 38-3, while the Ducks took out a trendy pick in the Texas Tech Red Raiders by the score of 23-0.

Once these Semifinal Round games conclude, we’ll be down to the final participants for the 2026 National Championship on Monday, January 19, 2026.

Let’s dive deeper into the Semifinal Round matchups, take a look at the latest odds, and make our College Football Playoff predictions.

CFP Semifinal Round Schedule

College Football CFP Semifinal Odds

Keep an eye on the latest College Football odds from the top sports betting sites and monitor how the lines change up to kickoff.

The Indiana Hoosiers open as the biggest favorites of the Semifinal Round with a 4-point spread and a -185 moneyline. Their opponent, Oregon, slides in at +155 odds which is a tad bit larger than Ole Miss at a +150 moneyline. Their game sees Miami as a 3.5-point favorite, with -180 odds.

In other words, both Semifinal matchups have similar spreads and moneylines. Yet, the big difference is the Total for each game. The Miami vs. Ole Miss matchup features a 52-point Total. Oregon vs. Indiana opened with an Over-Under of 46.5 points.

Raise your hand if you got this Final Four correct! Most pundits and College Football bettors struck out on some of these upsets. We’re rolling into the SF Round with a 3-5 record due to the Miami, Ole Miss and Oregon upsets.

If you need further assistance on the Semifinals of the CFP, or any other football game this postseason, then check out the industry’s top handicapping membership and get a free trial to thousands of picks year-round.

Dominate the NCAAF Playoffs With The Industry’s Best

Handicapping Membership

Get Free Trial

CFP Semifinal Round Predictions

Let’s take a look at the College Football Playoff Semifinal Round games and make our NCAAF picks for each matchup.

Miami Hurricanes vs. Ole Miss Rebels Odds

This year’s Fiesta Bowl is the unlikeliest of matchups that we have seen in many years. When the CFP bracket was unveiled, most people penciled in Ohio State vs. Georgia in a highly anticipated showdown. Instead, we get two upset-minded teams looking to continue their Cinderella run.

The Miami Hurricanes (12-2) were heavily criticized over making the CFP instead of Notre Dame. And, now, they’re one win away from the Championship game and restoring the shine to The U.

Miami took out Texas A&M in the Opening Round (10-3) and then put together a masterful performance in the QF Round against Ohio State who was favored to win a National Title for the second straight year. The Hurricanes are the first double-digit seed to win a Playoff game and to reach the Semifinal Round.

Ole Miss (13-1) avenged their only loss of the season by scoring 20 points in the fourth quarter to take out the Georgia Bulldogs (39-34). This came on the heels of Ole Miss’ 31-point Opening Round victory over Tulane.

And, the Rebels have put together two offensive explosions after Lane Kiffin’s departure, which only adds to the impressiveness of this team.

Miami and Ole Miss have played against each other three times in the history of their programs. The Rebels hold a 2-1 advantage. However, the last time these teams played was in 1951, where Miami won. Prior to that, they played in 1940 and 1936, where Ole Miss won both contests.

Miami Hurricanes vs. Ole Miss Rebels Predictions

Over their first two games, Miami has given up just 17 total points. In the QF Round, they shut out Ohio State in the first half, then held one of the best offenses in the Nation to just 14 points total.

The Hurricanes have stepped up on the defensive side of the ball with Ruben Blain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor combining for three sacks against Ohio State. Miami also held a rugged Buckeyes’ run game to just 45 yards.

On the flip side, the Hurricanes offense ran for 153 yards and QB Carson Beck did a solid job of managing the game, while not turning the ball over. The Miami offense sealed the game with a five-minute TD drive where Beck converted two third downs via passes.

The Rebels Offense Is A Juggernaut

Ole Miss’s offense is a juggernaut, as Georgia and Tulane both learned the hard way. The Rebels put up 473 total yards against a stout Bulldogs defense. This was just 15 yards shy of their average (488.8 ypg), which ranks second in the Nation.

The Rebels scored 41 on Tulane and then put up 39 against Georgia, which both surpass their no.9 ranked scoring average of 36.8 ppg.

Ole Miss has the no.31 ranked rushing attack at 183.3 ypg but will face the no.4 run defense in Miami that allows only 83.4 ypg and just held Ohio State to half that number. Kewan Lacy paced Ole Miss on the ground against Georgia with 98 rushing yards and two TDs.

The Rebels also have the no.4 passing attack in the country at 305.5 ypg. QB Trinidad Chambliss totaled 362 passing yards and two TDs against Georgia. He also put up 282 yards and 1 TD against Tulane.

When this team isn’t scoring touchdowns, kicker Lucas Carneiro has been solid making field goals. He nailed three huge FGs against Georgia including a 47-yarder with six seconds left in the game.

Who Wins The Fiesta Bowl?

While Ole Miss has been impressive this year, especially in the Playoffs, I am taking the Hurricanes to win this game.

Miami is 6-0 SU in their last six games, 4-1 SU in their last five SEC matchups, 4-1 SU in their last five January games, 9-2 SU after a win, and 9-2 SU as a Favorite. The Hurricanes are a perfect 6-0 SU in non-conference matchups and 5-0 SU versus ranked opponents this season.

Miami will win in the trenches and subsequently, take the victory. Defensively, Bain and Mesidor should create pressure while the entire front-four holds Ole Miss to under 100 yards on the ground. The Hurricanes held Ohio State to 45 yards and the Aggies to 89 yards.

On the flip side, Miami’s offensive line led is by James Brockermeyer and Francis Mauigoa. They’ve mauled opposing defenses as the Hurricanes tallied 175 rushing yards against the Aggies and 153 yards against the Buckeyes.

I see the Hurricanes leaning on their strengths offensively in running the ball behind a highly-talented offensive line. Look for a similar game script like the Ohio State game where they keep Ole Miss off the field by controlling the game clock, going on long drives, and running the ball against the Rebels that allow 151.3 rushing yards per game.

Bet: Miami Hurricanes (-180), Spread (pass), Under 52 (-110)

Oregon Ducks vs. Indiana Hoosiers Odds

The Peach Bowl is a rematch between the Oregon Ducks (13-1) and the Indiana Hoosiers (14-0). These two teams first played on October 11 in Eugene, OR, and the Hoosiers won 30-20. The was the only loss for Oregon this season.

Overall, these teams have played against each other four times with each school winning two games apiece. However, the Hoosiers have won two in a row.

Oregon opened up the Playoffs with a 51-34 win over the James Madison Dukes. The 17-point victory sparked some criticism as many though that the Ducks would win a lot more convincingly than that.

So, Oregon followed that up with a 23-0 victory over Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl and showed that this team has the talent on both sides of the ball to be a real contender.

The Hoosiers entered the CFP as the top seeded team in the field after finishing undefeated during the regular season and the beating Ohio State for the Big Ten Championship.

After a First Round bye, the Hoosiers came out and put on a Rose Bowl performance that will be talked about for generations as Indiana destroyed the Alabama Crimson Tide in the QF Round by the score of 38-3.

Not only did Indiana quiet all doubters with their win over Alabama, but they cemented themselves as the team to beat for the 2026 National Championship.

Oregon Ducks vs. Indiana Hoosiers Predictions

Heading into their QF Round matchup against the Red Raiders, most of the talk was about Texas Tech’s vaunted defense. And, while that unit kept TTU in the game, it was Oregon’s defense that dominated and made a huge statement.

The Ducks held TTU to just 215 total yards, while forcing four turnovers and another three turnovers on downs. Oregon’s talented offense only had to score two touchdowns and they came from six yards and 28 yards following Tech turnovers.

The Hoosiers Are For Real

It must be stated again, but these Hoosiers are for real. This team is so talented on both sides of the ball that Oregon is going to have a hard time in this SF matchup. In fact, any of the remaining schools will have a difficult matchup against Indiana.

Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza finished with 192 passing yards and 3 TDs as the Indiana offense racked up 407 total yards along with holding the ball for 34:21 against Alabama.

The Hoosiers started off the game slow but picked things up in the second quarter as they scored all 17 of their first-half points in the second frame to lead 17-0 at halftime. From there, they outscored Alabama 21-3 in the second half.

Indiana’s Kaelon Black paced the running game with 99 yards and a TD on 15 carries. The Hoosiers finished with 215 rushing yards for the day as Roman Hemby also tallied 89 yards on the ground. This was on par with their season average of 214.8 ypg which ranks 11^th in the country.

Who Wins The Peach Bowl?

The Hoosiers have an offensive balance that can matchup with Oregon’s talented defense. In addition to the Heisman-winning QB, and a strong rushing attack, Indiana has a talented trio of receivers.

Most attention is paid towards Cooper Jr. and Sarratt, but Becker has played strong over the last few games. He tallied 126 yards against Ohio State in the Big Ten title game and scored Indiana’s first TD of the game against Alabama.

Yet, it will be this elite Hoosiers defense that wins the game. They held Oregon to 20 points at Eugene, OR, earlier this year. And, they gave up 13 total points to the Buckeyes and Crimson Tide over their last two Bowl Games.

Indiana’s defense is no.2 in the country for fewest points (11.1 ppg) along with ranking 3^rd in total yards (266.1 ypg) and against the run (76.4 ypg).

The Hoosiers are the most balanced team in the Final Four. They have the best defense remaining, along with an offense that can score with anyone and do so on the ground or through the air.

I’m taking Indiana to win this game as they’re 11-0 SU against Big Ten opponents this year and 20-SU in their last 20 games as the favorite. Oregon is 3-7 SU in their last 10 games as the Underdog.

I also like the Hoosiers to cover the spread, as well. Indiana is 4-0 ATS versus ranked opponents, 9-4 ATS following a win, and covered a 7-point spread versus Oregon in their first matchup. The Ducks are 3-2 ATS versus ranked opponents, 2-3 ATS with equal rest, and just 5-4 ATS versus Big Ten teams. Skip the Total due to either defense being able to blank the opposing offense.

Bet: Indiana Hoosiers (-185), Indiana -4 (-110), Total (pass)

Best College Football Playoff Semifinal Round Bets

The following picks are our best bets for the SF Round:

• Miami Hurricanes (-180)
• Indiana Hoosiers (-185)
• Indiana Hoosiers -4 (-110)

I like the Hurricanes to out-physical the Rebels by controlling the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. They have the running game to win the T.O.P battle along with punishing an Ole Miss defense. Additionally, Miami’s defensive line will get after the Rebels, while stuffing their rushing attack.

Indiana has the offensive firepower to win a shootout with Oregon, especially with the Heisman Trophy winner at QB. And, their defense has been one of the best in the nation as we’ve seen over their last two Bowl Games. Look for Indiana to win by at least four points and roll into the National Championship as a large favorite.

If you decide to put these best CFP bets into a parlay, then you will win $357.51 for every $100 wagered. All we need is for things to play out as expected based on the stats and trends, then we get a 3.5x ROI.

If this excites you, then check out our best NFL parlays of the week. We also have weekly College Football parlays, as well. So, take a peek and possibly even combine the two.

College Football Playoffs Schedule

This year’s College Football Playoffs schedule is as follows:

First Round

• Friday, December 19, 2025: Alabama vs. Oklahoma
• Saturday, December 20, 2025: James Madison vs. Oregon, Tulane vs. Ole Miss, Miami vs. Texas A&M

Quarterfinal Round

• Wednesday, Dec. 31: Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic, Ohio State vs. Miami
• Thursday, Jan. 1: Capital One Orange Bowl, Texas Tech vs. Oregon
• Thursday, Jan. 1: Rose Bowl, Indiana vs. Alabama
• Thursday, Jan. 1: Allstate Sugar Bowl, Georgia vs. Ole Miss

Semifinal Round

• Thursday, Jan. 8: Vrbo Fiesta Bowl, Miami vs. Ole Miss
• Friday, Jan. 9: Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, Oregon vs. Indiana

CFP National Championship Game

• Monday, Jan. 19: College Football National Championship Game