Can you believe it? We’ve reached the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs already. Six months, 26 races, and the Inaugural In-Season Tournament have sped by like we were racing on a superspeedway.

16 drivers have qualified for the Playoffs and will compete for the Cup Series Championship. It was a thrilling season that came down to the final lap in the final regular season race at Daytona to determine the last Playoff spot. Will the postseason be just as exciting?

Let’s take a look at the latest 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Championship odds, courtesy of the best sports betting sites, and make our NASCAR Cup Series Championship predictions along with which drivers will qualify for the Final 4. Also, stay tuned for our NASCAR Picks of the Week as we cover every Playoff race for all three of the sport’s top circuits.

NASCAR Cup Series Playoff Schedule

The following is a quick overview of the Playoff format:

• Round of 16 (Aug 31-Sep 13): Darlington, WWTR, Bristol
• Round of 12 (Sep 21-Oct 5): New Hampshire, Kansas, Charlotte ROVAL
• Round of 8 (Oct 12-Oct 26): Las Vegas, Talladega, Martinsville
• Round of 4 (Nov 2): Championship Race at Phoenix

After each round, four drivers will be eliminated until the Final 4 remain. Then, those four drivers will compete in the Championship Race for the Cup Series title on Sunday, November 2, live from Phoenix Raceway.

NASCAR Cup Series Championship Odds

Check out the latest Cup Series Championship odds:

Kyle Larson remains the favorite to win the Cup Series Championship. However, as we head into the Playoffs, Larson is now tied at the top with Denny Hamlin and Ryan Blaney.

Chase Briscoe is the biggest riser going from +3000 at the midpoint of the season to +2000. Tyler Reddick saw the largest fall on the betting boards going from +1000 to +2000 over that span. And, as you can see, three drivers are tied as the longshots.

Keep reading to see how our Cup Series Championship predictions have changed with the conclusion of the regular season, and how they might compare to some of the best handicappers.

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NASCAR Championship Favorites

The following drivers are considered the odds-on favorites to win the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Championship.

Kyle Larson

• Wins: 3
• Top 5: 11
• Top 10: 16
• 2024 Finish: 6th
• Career Best: 2021 Cup Champion

As we head into the Playoffs, Kyle Larson remains the odds-on favorite to win the Cup Series Championship this year. At the start of the season, I made the following statements about Larson:

“Although he finished 6th last year, I fully expect Larson to get back to the Championship Race this season and compete for his second title.”

The #5 car has been near that top of the driver standings for most of the season and led the field in Top 5s (tied), Top 10s, and Playoff Points (tied). He was also second in wins and second in laps led.

Larson’s victories came in the Straight Talk Wireless 400 at Homestead-Miami, Bristol Motor Speedway, and the AdventHealth 400 at Kansas Speedway in May. That was his last win of the season.

Last year, Larson led the Cup Series with six wins (four regular, two Playoff) and 15 Top 5s. Unfortunately, he failed to make the Final 4 and contend for a Championship. The 2021 Champ fell short in the Round of 8.

Larson’s six checkered flags were the most he’s had in a season since his incredible run of 10 victories in 2021, the year he won his only Cup Series Championship.

While Larson hasn’t won in nearly four months, he still has four Top 6s in the last six Cup races heading into the Playoffs. He came close at Indy in July and was at the front of the Daytona field in the final laps of the Coke Zero Sugar 400.

You have to like his chances for advancing to at least the Final Four, which the sportsbooks list his odds at -165 to make it.

Denny Hamlin

• Wins: 4
• Top 5: 11
• Top 10: 13
• 2024 Finish: 8th
• Career Best: 3rd in 2014 and 2021

It wasn’t long after Bell’s hot streak, that his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Denny Hamlin went on a streak of his own. Hamlin blasted the field to four Top 5s in a row, which included victories at Martinsville and Darlington.

In the second half of the Regular Season, Hamlin continued his momentum with wins at Michigan and Dover to finish tied for the most victories in the Cup Series at four. He also had five Top 5s and six Top 10s in the last 11 Cup races.

As the green flag dropped on the 2025 season, I was fading Hamlin to win the Championship this year. Although I stated that he would surpass his 8^th place result from last year, I had believed that the #11 car has fallen behind the younger drivers of the sport today.

Well, the old man has proven that he’s still capable of competing at the top of this sport. I can see a scenario where Hamlin makes the Final Four. However, I am very hesitant on picking him to win the Championship.

Ryan Blaney

• Wins: 2
• Top 5: 10
• Top 10: 14
• 2024 Finish: 2nd
• Career Best: 2023 Cup Champion

Don’t look now, but the 2023 Cup Series Champion is on a heater and that’s bad news for the rest of the field now that it’s Playoff time.

At the beginning of the season, I made the following comments about the #12 car:

“I’ve never been a huge Blaney fan, but he’s certainly a talented driver with a Championship and a runner-up on his resume. Considering that he’s still in his prime, Blaney could be a solid wager throughout the year and for this NASCAR prop bet.”

Well, for the first half of the season, these comments bit me in my rear bumper. However, the second half of the regular season has been a different story. In fact, the last two months have seen Blaney plow his way up the standings and enter the Playoffs as the 4^th seed.

In his last six regular season starts, Blaney has one win, three Top 5s, and six Top 8s. That’s the best mark for any driver in the Playoff field.

So, you are seeing why Blaney is now considered a favorite to win the Championship. Do not overlook the #12 car as he could seriously challenge for a second Cup title in the last three years. Let’s also not forget that he was runner up last year. One spot away from winning two Championships in a row.

Christopher Bell

• Wins: 3
• Top 5: 9
• Top 10: 14
• 2024 Finish: 5th
• Career Best: 3rd in 2022

Christopher Bell has had a tale of two halves. He was the top driver over the first half of the regular season as he won three races in a row to close out March: Atlanta, COTA, and Phoenix.

Then Bell hit a lull in the middle part of the season where he wasn’t winning or even contending for checkered flags. The second half of the regular season has seen him score just two Top 5s in the last eight Cup races.

The #20 team felt they regained some mojo from their 2^nd at Watkins Glen three weeks ago. But that remains to be seen as we enter the Playoffs.

Last season, Bell tallied career highs with 15 Top 5s and 23 Top 10s. His total number of Top 10 results led the field. Additionally, Bell’s 12.8 average finish was the second-best average in the Cup Series.

As I stated at the beginning of the season, “Bell is a real contender this year with a strong team, solid car, and the skills to win on any type of track.”

I still feel that way. But I am going to temper those expectations to another Final Four appearance with taking the checkered flag. That’s unless he wins a Playoff race, then we know that Bell is really back to his early-season form.

William Byron

• Wins: 2
• Top 5: 9
• Top 10: 13
• 2024 Finish: 3rd
• Career Best: 3rd in 2023 and 2024

William Byron won the Regular Season title and scored 15 Playoff Points which put him at the top with his teammate Kyle Larson. He opened the season with a second straight Daytona 500 win. And, he has carried that momentum for most of the season.

Byron also won at Iowa, four races ago. And he has a 9.0 average finish over the last month of racing. Not to mention, Byron also led the most laps on the season.

At the beginning of the year, I stated that: “Byron closed the gap on Larson and was the second-best Hendrick driver in 2025. I also proclaimed that he’s worthy of consideration to win the Championship this year.”

All the #24 car has done since that proclamation, was win the Regular Season title, pick up two checkered flags and come into the Playoffs on a high note.

Last year, Byron closed out the Playoffs with six straight Top 6 finishes and was third overall after coming up short in his quest to win the Championship.

I can definitely see Byron making it back to the Final Four as he’s one of the most consistent drivers in the Cup Series. I also think he has a real shot at the title. In fact, just as good of a shot as Larson does.

Best NASCAR Championship Betting Value

The following drivers are my NASCAR picks for the best betting value to win the 2025 Cup Series Championship:

Chase Elliott

• Wins: 1
• Top 5: 7
• Top 10: 13
• 2024 Finish: 7th
• Career Best: 2020 Cup Champion

Coming into this year, I made the following proclamation about Chase Elliott:

“I do like Elliott’s chances of turning things around this year. He’s far too talented of a driver to continue a trend of disappointment and mediocre results. I think he gets back to winning multiple road races in 2025, and makes a run at another Championship Race appearance.”

Well, he didn’t win any road races despite several Top 5s. However, Elliott did win in his home track of Atlanta. He also finished this season with just one DNF, which came two races ago. And, he has the best average finish (12.0) in the Cup Series.

I really like Elliott’s consistency and steady results. However, I feel that he needs a win to be a real contender for the Cup Championship. So, let’s see how the Round of 16 goes before we crown him a true contender.

Joey Logano

• Wins: 1
• Top 5: 3
• Top 10: 7
• 2024 Finish: First
• Career Best: 2018, 2022, 2024 Cup Champion

It doesn’t matter how long of odds Joey Logano has, the Playoffs are when the veteran driver steps up his game. The three-time Cup Series Champion, who has won two of the last three titles, will need to step on the gas as soon as the green flag drops on the Playoffs.

Currently, Logano enters the Playoffs as the #12 driver, which means he’s right at the cut off line for the Round of 8.

At the midpoint of the season, I made the following statement about Logano:

“Logano has the possibility of winning a third title in four seasons, a fourth overall, and a Jimmie Johnson type run in the sport of NASCAR.”

And, as of now, nothing has deterred me from thinking this. Logano had two Top 9s in the last four races on the season, which includes 4^th at Richmond two races ago. So, he’s already rounding into postseason form.

If Logano wins a race in the Playoffs, then it’s over with. Give him the Championship. If he doesn’t win a race, then it’s going to be a hard fight just to make it to the Final Four.

Shane van Gisbergen

• Wins: 4
• Top 5: 4
• Top 10: 5
• 2024 Finish: only did 12 races
• Career Best: First full-time season

Call me crazy, but Shane van Gisbergen at +2800 odds, offers great betting value moving forward. The sport’s top road-course driver made the Playoffs by winning four road races on the season. It also put him in 6^th place for Playoff Points.

So, SVG has some room for painful results in the first round and move on to the Round of 12. This is where I like his chances even more. The second round of the Playoffs has the Charlotte ROVAL road race. If he can remain alive in the Playoffs until that race, then you have to like his chances of advancing to the Round of 8 where anything can happen.

Personally, I am hoping he can survive until the ROVAL because then we can see this NASCAR fairytale continue for one more round.

One more thing to note, SVG had his two best non-road race results over the last two weeks: 14^th at Richmond and 16^th at Daytona. This bodes well for the #88 car in the Round of 16.

Top Longshot To Win NASCAR Championship

Alex Bowman (+3300) remains my longshot bet this year. At the start of the season, I made the following proclamation about the #48 car:

“With the way his 2024 title run ended, and his strong run over the final stretch of the season, I like for Bowman to be a Playoff contender this year.”

At the midpoint of the season, despite Bowman’s inconsistent start, I was still riding with him as my longshot pick. And, as if he heard my belief in him, Bowman put together a solid stretch of racing over the last few months of the regular season.

Over the last 11 races, Bowman had four Top 5s and eight Top 10s. He was involved in a big wreck for the Coke Zero Sugar 400 races, but still made the Playoffs despite being out of the race.

If you recall last year’s postseason, Bowman was controversially disqualified from moving on to the Round of 8 as he should have. The #48 car had a strong run in the Playoffs that continued even after his DQ.

I have stated this all year long:

“I believe that if the #48 car makes the Playoffs this year, we could see another run out of this team.”

Now, that Bowman is in the Playoffs and in the final spot, I do believe he will make some noise and work his way through the rounds. He remains my top longshot bet.

Who Will Make The Final Four?

It really is difficult dwindling down this list from 16 to four. Rather, from six to eight contenders down to the four finalists.

With that said, I really like Larson (-165), Byron (-105), Blaney (-140), and Logano (+300) or Bell (-105). If my longshot Bowman (+550) can get a win in the first round or second round, then I would put him in here instead of one of his teammates.

Byron offers the best value, especially after winning the Regular Season title. Logano offers great longshot odds and should never be counted out.

For now, I’m going with these four. However, it could all change after the first few weeks of the Playoffs.

Bet: (-165), Byron (-105), Blaney (-140), Logano (+300)

NASCAR Cup Series Championship Predictions

I started off the year with the following prediction:

“Top 5 drivers heading into the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season are Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, William Byron, Joey Logano, and Ryan Blaney. In other words, the three top teams (Hendrick, JGR, Team Penske) will contend for another NASCAR Championship.”

And, guess what – other than Logano, the other four are listed as the odds-on favorites to win the Championship. Denny Hamlin is up there with them, as well. Yet, I would rather bet on Logano than Hamlin at this point in the season.

With that said, I am going to be a homer and stick with my pick from the start of the season:

“Some will call it bias, and I understand, but I still lean towards Larson being the best driver on Hendrick and the Cup Series field. He finished with six wins but slowed down in the Round of 8 last year. He was a few laps away from advancing to the Final 4, but came up short.”

At the midpoint of the season, I also stated that Larson will be highly motivated to improve from last year’s mark. While he only scored three wins on the year, the #5 car has been one of the best all year long according to the stats.

I expect this entire team to raise their game for the Playoffs as they know what it takes to win. And, last year, was not it. On a side note, Team Penske could easily win a fourth championship in a row. So, it really will take a few postseason races to see who’s a true contender and who’s a pretender.

Bet: Kyle Larson (+400)

Recent NASCAR Champions

The following list only includes the winners during the current Playoff format, which began in 2015: