2026 NASCAR Championship Odds and Predictions

As the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series kicks off with excitement and anticipation at a high, bettors and fans alike are turning attention towards the season-long Cup Series championship market.

With the return of the 10-race Chase format, on-track strategy and off-track consistency matter more than ever. The Championship odds are shaping up to reflect last year’s performances along with off-season momentum.

The NASCAR Cup Series ran their exhibition race this week – Cook Out Clash At Bowman Gray Stadium. And, it was Ryan Preece surprising the field. Will we see any surprises with this year’s Championship battle?

Let’s take a look at the latest Cup Series Championship odds and make our predictions as to which driver will win the 2026 Cup Championship. Check out our NASCAR Picks of the Week for a breakdown of our top NASCAR picks each week, which includes O’Reilly Auto Parts Series and the Craftsman Truck Series.

The top sports betting sites list a pack of drivers bumping and pushing their way to the top of the boards for the 2026 Cup champ. Yet, when you look past that group, you will see several drivers worth monitoring for betting value and one or two drivers with longshot appeal.

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NASCAR Cup Series Championship Favorites

The following drivers are considered the odds-on favorites to win the 2026 Cup Championship:

Denny Hamlin (+500)

Denny Hamlin finished 2nd in the 2025 Cup Series championship standings by a razor-thin margin. He lost by a nose to Kyle Larson and it was a “whispered” reason why the sport went back to their Chase format.

Hamlin posted the most wins in the series (6) as he showed elite consistency and performance across a variety of different tracks. The no.11 car also posted 14 Top 5s and 18 Top 10s. Hamlin won two Playoff races, as well. Unfortunately, it didn’t lead to a victory.

This year, Hamlin is considered the favorite by many due to his dominant 2025 season with series-leading stats, or at least in the Top 3 for all major categories. Bad timing in the late laps of the Championship Race cost him a Title.

With the renewed Chase format, and tracks that fit his vast skill set, Hamlin is on a mission to right the wrong of last year with a Championship in 2026.

Kyle Larson (+500)

Larson is the defending Cup Series Champion, having capitalized on Hamlin’s bad luck in the final race of the season. This was his second Cup title and the no.5 car is poised for another one this year.

Larson finished with three wins, 15 Top 5s, and 22 Top 10s last year, which showed his elite driving skills as these victories came at short tracks and mid-distance venues like Kansas or Miami.

As the reigning Cup Champion, Larson enters the 2026 season with all of the momentum and a strong team that will also benefit from the Chase Format’s return. Larson is cool under pressure and can win at any track throughout the season.

William Byron (+550)

Will this be the year that William Byron finally wins a Cup Championship? Larson’s Hendrick Motorsports teammate finished with three wins, 11 Top 5s and 16 Top 10s which produced another Championship 4 appearance.

Most notably, Byron won the Daytona 500 for a second year in a row. He’s favored to win the 2026 Daytona 500, as well.

Although Byron couldn’t match Larson or Hamlin’s postseason momentum, he was still a legitimate threat at the Championship. And, that’s exactly what he is coming into this year, as well.

While the sentiment will lean towards Hamlin winning his first Cup Championship, don’t count out William Byron from bypassing Larson as the top driver at Hendrick for the 2026 season.

Ryan Blaney (+550)

The 2023 Cup Series champion put together a strong 2025 season with four wins, 15 Top 5s, and 19 Top 10s. Most notably, Team Penske’s Ryan Blaney won three of the last 11 races on the season including the Championship Race in Phoenix. Unfortunately, he was too many points behind Larson to win the Championship.

Yet, if there’s another driver outside of Larson that enters the 2026 season with momentum and confidence – it’s Blaney.

The no.12 car started off the 2025 year without much fanfare. However, once he got going, Blaney was one of the top three drivers in the Cup Series down the stretch.

That late-season surge, three wins in the final 11 races, and a victory in the 2025 season’s finale gives bettors and fans plenty of confidence in Blaney as he will greatly benefit from the return of the Chase Format. Five Top 5s and two wins in the Playoffs gives me confidence in Blaney this year.

Christopher Bell (+650)

After the first month of 2025 racing, Christopher Bell looked like the best driver in the sport as he won three races in a row following Daytona. From there, he would conclude the season with four victories, 13 Top 5s and 22 Top 10s. This led the no.20 car to a 5^th place finish in the Championship standings.

Bell’s consistency in the postseason should give bettors confidence in the renewed Chase Format era. In the final nine races of the year, Bell had eight Top 10s and nine Top 11s. He also had one win and four Top 5s.

Hamlin gets most of the attention at Joe Gibbs Racing but Bell is a real threat this year with his steady presence near the front and his consistent Top 10s, along with the ability to win at any track.

The Best Cup Series Championship Betting Value

The following drivers offer the best betting value based on their previous success and current odds:

Chase Elliott (+850)

The former Cup Series champ finished 8^th in the standings but did post two wins, 11 Top 5s and 19 Top 10s. He won at EchoPark Speedway and Kansas, which bother were mild surprises at the time.

The biggest reason why we think Elliott offers betting value is due to his ability to finish races. The no.9 car rarely wrecks out of a race, which will be huge for the renewed Chase Format as it stresses consistency.

Elliott has the championship experience, the results under pressure, and he is still one of the top road-course drivers which gives him an advantage over many other Cup Series championship contenders.

Connor Zilisch (+1600)

The Cup Series rookie is a driver that you must keep an eye on. After what Connor Zilisch did last year in the Series formerly known as Xfinity, the youngster is a generational talent that should produce in the Cup Series right away. Especially on the road courses where he will fight his teammate Shan Van Gisbergen for checkered flags.

While most rookies fail to contend for the Cup Series championship, Zilisch has the talent to overcome that trend.

Zilisch will turn 20 this summer and came up a few spots short of putting together the greatest Xfinity Series season (now called O’Reilly Auto Parts Series) of all time. He tallied 10 wins, 20 Top 5s and 23 Top 10s in 32 races.

While I don’t see the rookie scoring more than one or two wins this year, he definitely has the ability to finish with a number of Top 5s and Top 10s that could get him into the Playoffs in his first year. Once there, anything can happen as long as he remains consistent and has a strong car.

The Top Longshot Pick To Win 2026 Cup Championship

Are you seriously giving me Joey Logano at +2000 odds? I will take him as my longshot pick all day, every day, and twice on Sunday.

Last year, Logano finished 7^th with just one win, seven Top 5s and 13 Top 10s. It was the worst season for Logano since 2012. This is why we’re seeing long odds for the three-time Cup Series champion.

And, let’s not forget the fact that Logano won two of those championships in the last four years (2022, 2024).

The Chase Format is perfect for a driver like Logano as he’s been a consistent presence in the Top 10 for many years now. I love these odds and believe he’s worth a flier.

Cup Series Championship Prediction

The return of the Chase Format throws a monkey wrench into handicapping the upcoming NASCAR Cup Series season. It requires us to rethink our strategies as it’s not the “win and move on” era anymore. Now, we need to look at consistency with wins, Top 5 and Top 10 finishes, along with a minimal amount of DNFs.

So, all of the drivers above qualify under these criteria. However, there’s one driver that I feel will take that next step towards becoming a first-time champion. And, no, I’m not talking about Denny Hamlin. Instead, I’m looking at his teammate Christopher Bell.

As a well-known Kyle Larson fan, I took the no.5 car to win the 2025 Cup Series championship and he didn’t let me know. So, going with someone else to win in 2026, really stings. Yet, I like Bell’s results for 2025, along with the return of the Chase Format and the fact that he’s finished in the Top 5 for the championship standings in four straight seasons.

Last year, Bell tied Larson with the most Top 10s (22) but had one more win and nearly as many Top 5s. Additionally, he tallied the best average finish in the Cup Series (11.2) and only had three DNFs, which are the perfect example of consistency. And, those three DNFs came in the first half of the season.

In the Playoffs, Bell scored one win, four Top 5s, and eight Top 10s in the final nine races following a rough start at Darlington. Over that span, he never finished outside of the Top 11.

Bell can compete on the dirt tracks, short tracks, intermediate tracks, and super speedways. He has the skillset to compete against any driver on those tracks and is often a betting favorite each week.

As much as I want to pick my favorite driver in Larson, or go with the sentimental favorite in Hamlin, or laugh at the sportsbooks by taking Logano, I am riding with Bell to win the Championship this year.

Bet: Christopher Bell (+650)

Recent NASCAR Champions

The following list only includes the winners during the current Playoff format, which began in 2015: