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Baltimore Ravens vs Kansas City Chiefs Week 4 Betting Preview
The Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs clash Sunday afternoon at Arrowhead in a critical Week 4 AFC showdown. Both teams sit at 1–2, a rare early-season mark for franchises that have defined the conference in recent years.
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Baltimore is lighting up scoreboards behind Lamar Jackson’s league-best nine TD passes, but its defense is leaking points at an alarming rate. In Monday’s 38–30 loss to Detroit, the Ravens surrendered 224 rushing yards and fell to 31st in scoring defense. Kansas City isn’t immune to issues either — Patrick Mahomes and the offense are sputtering, averaging just 20 points per game. Both sides know urgency is setting in, something reflected in the latest NFL game results that show neither powerhouse looking like its usual self.
Line Movement and Odds
- Moneyline: Ravens -146, Chiefs +123
- Spread: Ravens -2.5 (-117), Chiefs +2.5 (-103)
- Total: Over/Under 48.5 (O -112 / U -108)
Oddsmakers opened Baltimore as a slight road favorite. Early money has tilted toward the Ravens, especially with Kansas City struggling to finish drives. The total has hovered at 48.5, with bettors split — overs tied to Baltimore’s scoring pace, unders tied to Kansas City’s offensive stagnation.
“We got to start faster. I think every game we’ve said that, but we haven’t really got to do that.” — Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes
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Matchup Breakdown
Baltimore Outlook
Jackson has been efficient, throwing for 722 yards with no interceptions. Tight end Mark Andrews remains a reliable red-zone option, while Derrick Henry adds a physical ground game despite three costly fumbles. Injuries up front hurt the defense, particularly with DT Nnamdi Madubuike sidelined, but Baltimore’s offensive explosiveness gives them a chance against anyone. If Henry holds on to the football, Baltimore’s balance makes them dangerous.
Kansas City Outlook
The Chiefs finally got on the board with a 22–9 win over the Giants, but Mahomes wants quicker starts. Rookie receiver Xavier Worthy is trending toward returning, giving Mahomes another weapon to pair with Travis Kelce. Defensively, KC has been solid, ranking fourth in points allowed last season and still generating turnovers. But they’re missing the vertical explosiveness that once defined their attack. If Mahomes converts field goal drives into touchdowns, KC can turn the tide.
Key Battle
Ravens’ explosive offense vs. Chiefs’ red-zone execution. Baltimore can pile up points quickly, but if Kansas City’s defense bends without breaking, the home team has a path to an upset. On the flip side, Mahomes must punish Baltimore’s league-worst defense with efficiency in the red zone.
Injuries and Conditions
| Ravens | Chiefs |
|---|---|
| • DT Nnamdi Madubuike (neck) out | • DE Michael Danna (quad) limited |
| • DT Travis Jones (knee) DNP | • CB Kristian Fulton (ankle) limited |
| • DT Broderick Washington (ankle) DNP | • TE Travis Kelce active |
| • OLB Kyle Van Noy (hamstring) DNP | • WR Xavier Worthy (shoulder) trending active |
| • LT Ronnie Stanley (ankle) DNP | |
| • FB Patrick Ricard (calf) DNP | |
| • TE Isaiah Likely (foot) limited |
Weather: Mild, clear skies expected at Arrowhead. Ideal conditions for both offenses.
Best Bets and Prediction
This is a desperation spot for both sides. Baltimore’s offense has been the most consistent unit in the matchup, and Kansas City has yet to prove it can score efficiently without a true WR1. Unless Mahomes finds a rhythm early, Baltimore has the edge.
- Pick: Ravens -2.5 (-117)
- Projected Score: Ravens 28, Chiefs 24
- Reasoning: Jackson’s mistake-free play and Henry’s ground game tilt this matchup despite defensive injuries.
- Lean: Over 48.5 — Baltimore forces shootouts, and Mahomes won’t stay quiet for long.
- Market Split: 63% tickets Ravens, 58% money Chiefs.
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| Category | Detail |
|---|---|
| Best Bet | Ravens -2.5 (-117) |
| Confidence | ★★★★☆ |
| Projected Score | Ravens 28, Chiefs 24 |
| Total Lean | Over 48.5 |
| Market Split | 63% tickets Ravens, 58% money Chiefs |
Handicappers and Picks
This AFC showdown is one of the most heavily bet games of the week, and sharp bettors are split. The Leaderboard tracks which experts are hot on spreads and totals. For higher conviction plays, check Service Plays with verified premium cards.
Free sides, totals, and props are available daily in our NFL Predictions hub. And for bettors refining their strategy, the Bettors Handbook covers key angles like betting totals when high-powered offenses meet weak defenses.
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