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Nebraska’s pass offense plots to pick on Michigan State’s defense
The Nebraska Cornhuskers host the Michigan State Spartans Saturday in a Big Ten battle of bounce-back teams. Both squads return from byes seeking answers. Nebraska dropped a tight 30-27 decision to Michigan and enters with one of the most explosive passing offenses in the country. Michigan State counters with a dual-threat quarterback in Aidan Chiles, who has thrown for 868 yards, nine TDs and added 154 rushing yards. You can see how this matchup stacks up in this week’s college football week 6 odds and predictions.
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Line Movement and Odds
Nebraska opened as a slight favorite and has moved to –3.5 with some shops. The Cornhuskers are –180 on the moneyline, Michigan State +155. The over/under is 52.5, with significant early action leaning toward the Over as bettors anticipate a shootout.
Matchup Breakdown
Nebraska Cornhuskers Outlook
Nebraska’s passing attack is among the best in FBS, averaging 351.8 yards per game and producing 1,137 passing yards from QB Dylan Raiola with 11 touchdowns and just one interception. They’ll look to exploit Michigan State’s weak pass defense, which allows 263.5 yards per game (115th nationally). The challenge: Nebraska’s run defense is porous (allowing 173.5 yards/game), so balance and play-calling must be cautious.
Michigan State Spartans Outlook
Their offense lives and dies with Chiles. He’s dynamic, dangerous in space, and capable of creating explosive plays. But the Spartans’ pass defense is vulnerable, and if Nebraska’s receivers win on matchups, MSU may be forced into catch-up territory. Their strength is discipline and search for turnovers; they must strike early and disrupt Nebraska’s rhythm.
Key Battle
Raiola vs MSU’s secondary. If Nebraska can stretch the field early, it forces the Spartans to play below their normal comfort zone.
Injuries and Conditions
- Nebraska: No new injury reports post-bye
- Michigan State: No major injuries reported
Weather: Mild fall evening, possible wind late. No precipitation expected.
Best Bets and Prediction
This game sets up for yardage and points. Nebraska has the offensive firepower and matchup edge. Expect a back-and-forth first half, with Nebraska pulling away late. The model projects 38–27 in favor of Nebraska.
Pick: Nebraska –3.5
Projected Score: Nebraska 38, Michigan State 27
Lean: Over 52.5
For more matchups and analysis, check out our NCAAF Previews.
Don’t Miss Your Edge
Big Ten slates offer volatility and sharp angles. Explore expert betting insights →
| Category | Detail |
|---|---|
| Best Bet | Nebraska –3.5 |
| Confidence | ★★★★☆ |
| Projected Score | Nebraska 38, Michigan State 27 |
| Total Lean | Over 52.5 |
| Market Split | ~60% bets Nebraska; Over gaining early traction |
Handicappers and Picks
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