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11 Texas Tech visits rival Houston for clash of 4-0 teams
The Texas Tech Red Raiders return from their bye week to face the unbeaten Houston Cougars in a key Big 12 showdown on Saturday night. Both teams are 4-0, with Texas Tech ranked #11 in the AP Poll and Houston surprising many with its hot start. This game will decide who stays unbeaten in conference play and is a highlight on the college football week 6 odds and predictions.
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Line Movement and Odds
Texas Tech opened as heavy favorites and currently sits at -11.5 with a moneyline of -456. Houston is priced as a +348 underdog at home, while the total is set at 50.5. Bettors lean toward Texas Tech after their dominant defensive performance at Utah, but Houston has shown fight, pulling off a comeback win at Oregon State last week.
Matchup Breakdown
Texas Tech Red Raiders Outlook
Quarterback Behren Morton cleared concussion protocol and will start, but backup Will Hammond’s strong play means both could see snaps. Morton has thrown for 1,065 yards and 11 TDs, while Hammond has 4 more touchdowns in limited action. Texas Tech’s defense has been elite, allowing just 45 points in four games and ranking 7th nationally in interceptions.
Houston Cougars Outlook
The Cougars have thrived with transfer QB Conner Weigman leading the way. He passed for 270 yards last week in a comeback win over Oregon State, and his connection with WR Tanner Koziol has been huge—Koziol caught the game-tying TD. Houston’s defense is also strong, ranking 25th in points allowed and recording 9 sacks through four games.
Key Battle
Texas Tech’s passing game vs. Houston’s secondary. If Morton gets into rhythm early, it could put Houston in a hole they may not be able to climb out of.
Injuries and Conditions
Texas Tech Red Raiders
- QB Behren Morton (cleared, starter)
- QB Will Hammond (available, could play snaps)
- WR Coy Eakin (healthy, team-leading 260 yards)
- Weather: Mild Texas evening, clear skies
Houston Cougars
- QB Conner Weigman (healthy, starter)
- WR Tanner Koziol (healthy, key weapon)
- RB Dean Connors (healthy, team rushing leader)
Best Bets and Prediction
Texas Tech’s depth at QB, explosive offense, and elite defense make them a tough matchup for Houston. The model projects Texas Tech to cover comfortably, while the Cougars’ defense should do just enough to keep the game from becoming a complete shootout. Final score projection: Texas Tech 35, Houston 17.
Pick: Texas Tech -11.5
Projected Score: Texas Tech 35, Houston 17
Lean: Over 50.5
Don’t Miss Your Edge
The Big 12 is heating up, and every game matters for playoff positioning. Get expert betting strategies here →
| Category | Detail |
|---|---|
| Best Bet | Texas Tech -11.5 |
| Confidence | ★★★★☆ |
| Projected Score | Texas Tech 35, Houston 17 |
| Total Lean | Over 50.5 |
| Market Split | 64% bets on Texas Tech, 55% money on Houston |
ScoresAndStats Handicappers and Picks
Stay ahead of the market with the handicappers leaderboard, premium service plays, and free college football picks. For strategy, check out the bettors handbook.
NFL betting also offers lessons in spotting value. Underdogs often present profitable opportunities, especially in divisional games, as discussed in the breakdown of NFL underdogs. Understanding when public perception inflates a line is critical to long-term success.
Primetime matchups, with higher handle and attention, bring volatility to the lines. Following the Sunday Night Football odds and predictions is key to tracking sharp money and late-week adjustments.
The same applies to standalone midweek contests. Early-week movement makes the Thursday Night Football odds worth monitoring, while late injury reports can heavily swing Monday Night Football predictions.
