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AJ Auxerre vs Stade Rennais Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Keylor SantosUpdated 8 Oct 2026
Ligue 1Sun 11 Oct
AJ Auxerre
at
Stade Rennais
SpreadTotalMoneyAUX+1.5U 3.5+500REN-1.5O 3.5-225

No bet on AJ Auxerre at Stade Rennais. Our number and the market agree within 3.7 points on every outcome, short of the 5 points a bet needs.

Rennes are -225 at DraftKings, the draw +390 and Auxerre +500. The book’s margin is 6.3 points. Taken out, the market gives Rennes 65.1%, the draw 19.2% and Auxerre 15.7%. Our number gives Rennes 61.5%, the draw 22.9% and Auxerre 15.6%.

The widest gap is on the draw, 3.7 points above the market. Rennes sit 3.6 points below it and Auxerre 0.1 below. An outcome is a bet when our chance is at least 5 points above the market’s. None is, so this is a pass.

Our number gives Stade Rennais 61.5 percent, the market 65.1 percentAJ Auxerre at Stade Rennais: home, draw, away, ours against the market'sOur numberexpected goals61.5%22.9%15.6%The market1X2 prices, margin removed65.1%19.2%15.7%Prices: Stade Rennais -225, draw +390, AJ Auxerre +500. An outcome is a bet when ours is 5 points or more above the market's.Stade RennaisAJ Auxerre
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-08 07:40 UTC.

How the number is built

Each side gets expected goals: the league’s average for a team at that venue, times the side’s scoring rate there, times the opponent’s conceding rate at the other venue, each measured against the league average. A Poisson distribution on the two figures gives home, draw and away.

Both numbers come from last season. Rennes have played three home games in 2026-27 and Auxerre two away games, under the six the method needs. Each side takes its 2025-26 record at the same venue, against 2025-26 Ligue 1 averages of 1.59 goals a game for the home side and 1.24 for the away side.

Rennes at home last season went 10-4-3, scoring 1.76 a game and conceding 1.0 over 17 games. Auxerre away went 2-6-9, scoring 0.94 and conceding 1.59 over 17. That gives Rennes 1.77 expected goals and Auxerre 0.76.

Stade Rennais at home and AJ Auxerre awayStade Rennais at home and AJ Auxerre away, this season and lastStade Rennais at home, 2026-27 French Ligue 12-1-0 in 3scored 2.00 a gameconceded 1.33 a gameStade Rennais at home, 2025-26 French Ligue 1 (our number)10-4-3 in 17scored 1.76 a gameconceded 1.00 a gameAJ Auxerre away, 2026-27 French Ligue 10-0-2 in 2scored 1.50 a gameconceded 4.00 a gameAJ Auxerre away, 2025-26 French Ligue 1 (our number)2-6-9 in 17scored 0.94 a gameconceded 1.59 a gameRecord is wins-draws-losses in league games. Our number uses this season at the venue from six games; below that, last season.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026.

Auxerre’s away scoring ran at 0.76 of the league average, and Rennes conceded at home at 0.80 of it. That is the low half of the number. Auxerre’s away defence conceded at exactly the league’s home scoring rate, 1.0 times it, so Rennes’ figure rests on their own home scoring.

The table, this season and last

Last season Rennes finished 6th with 59 points, 17-8-9. Auxerre finished 15th with 34, 8-10-16.

Stade Rennais and AJ Auxerre in the tableLeague position and points per game, this season and lastStade Rennais2026-27 French Ligue 15 of 18, 10 pts in 52025-26 French Ligue 16 of 18, 59 pts in 34AJ Auxerre2026-27 French Ligue 110 of 18, 6 pts in 52025-26 French Ligue 115 of 18, 34 pts in 34Three points for a win, one for a draw.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026.

This season agrees with the number at both venues. Rennes have won two and drawn one of their three home games, six scored and four conceded. Auxerre have lost both away games, three scored and eight conceded. Overall Rennes are 5th of 18 with ten points, 3-1-1, and Auxerre 10th with six, 2-0-3. The case against Rennes is their own defence: nine conceded in five games, four of them at home. It is a small sample, and the number does not use it.

Pick: no bet

No bet on the result. The widest gap is 3.7 points, on the draw, and the threshold is 5.

What changes it

The price. The draw becomes a bet at +426 or longer, up from +390 now. Rennes become a bet at -149 or longer, and Auxerre at +789 or longer. A move in the draw price is the shortest way to a bet here.

This page states nothing about either lineup on 11 October. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total

The total is 3.5, over +120 and under -155. With the margin out, the market has the over at 42.8%. Our number has 24.7%, 18.1 points lower. That is reference only: this page never bets the total.

Last season 17 of Rennes’ 34 league games went over 3.5, and nine of Auxerre’s 34. This season it is three of five for each.

The last meetings

ESPN holds five meetings since March 2023: Auxerre won two, Rennes one, and two were drawn. Last season they drew 2-2 at Rennes in October 2025, and Rennes won 3-0 at Auxerre in February 2026. The method does not use them.

Last meetings of Stade Rennais and AJ AuxerreStade Rennais and AJ Auxerre: the last meetings ESPN holds22 Feb 2026AJ Auxerre 0-3 Stade Rennais19 Oct 2025Stade Rennais 2-2 AJ Auxerre6 Apr 2025Stade Rennais 0-1 AJ Auxerre3 Nov 2024AJ Auxerre 4-0 Stade Rennais11 Mar 2023AJ Auxerre 0-0 Stade RennaisHome side first. All competitions ESPN lists for the pair.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026.

AJ Auxerre at Stade Rennais, French Ligue 1, Sunday 11 October, 11:15 AM ET, Roazhon Park. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 8 October 2026, 07:40 UTC. Results and table: ESPN, read 8 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.