CFB
CFB · Saturday 17 October
Missouri vs Ole Miss Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Our number has Ole Miss by 9.1. At -5.5, take Ole Miss.
No. 9 Ole Miss is a 5.5-point favorite over No. 13 Missouri at DraftKings, half a point shorter than it opened. Our number for this Missouri vs Ole Miss prediction is Ole Miss by 9.1. The gap is 3.6 points, and the threshold for a bet here is 3.
That clears the threshold by 0.6 points, which is not much. The bet holds at -6 and is gone at -6.5.
How the number is built
Our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, 2025 and 2026 together.
Ole Miss is 10-0 at home against FBS teams over that span, winning by 20.2 points a game across 10 games. Missouri is 3-3 on the road against FBS teams, winning by 2.0 a game across 6 games. The difference is 18.2 points. Half of it is 9.1.
The base is 16 games, and 12 of them are from 2025. Both sides clear the 4-game minimum.
Ole Miss at home
Ole Miss has not lost a home game to an FBS team in this span. In 2025 it beat Georgia State 63-7, Arkansas 41-35, Tulane 45-10, LSU 24-19, Washington State 24-21, South Carolina 30-14 and Florida 34-24, then Tulane again, 41-10 at home in the playoff on 20 December 2025. This season it beat Charlotte 41-9 and LSU 32-24, the last on 19 September.
Three of those ten were by 6 or fewer: 3 against Washington State, 5 against LSU in 2025 and 6 against Arkansas. The 56-point win over Georgia State is the largest. Take it out and the other nine average a 16.2-point win, our number becomes Ole Miss by 7.1, and against -5.5 that is a gap of 1.6, a pass. The method keeps every FBS home game, but this is the weak point of the bet.
Missouri on the road
Missouri went 2-2 in its FBS road games in 2025: it won 23-17 at Auburn and 31-17 at Arkansas, and lost 17-10 at Vanderbilt and 17-6 at Oklahoma. This season it won 38-21 at Kansas on 11 September and lost 31-24 at Mississippi State on 26 September.
Six road games, three wins, an average margin of +2.0. Missouri has been close to even away from home against FBS teams, and the method reads it that way.
2026 so far
Missouri is 5-1 and 2-1 in the SEC. Against its five FBS opponents it is scoring 32.2 and allowing 18.4, a margin of +13.8. It beat Florida 45-17 and Texas A&M 27-6 at home, the last on 10 October. Its other win was 54-14 over Arkansas-Pine Bluff, a team outside the FBS.
Ole Miss is 4-1 and 2-1 in the SEC, all five games against FBS teams, scoring 38.8 and allowing 28.0, a margin of +10.8. It beat Louisville 41-38 at a neutral site, lost 52-28 at Florida on 26 September and won 52-17 at Vanderbilt on 10 October.
On this season alone Missouri has the better margin against FBS teams, by 3.0 points a game. The two teams have one opponent in common this season: Missouri beat Florida by 28 at home, and Ole Miss lost to Florida by 24 on the road.
Last season
Ole Miss went 13-2 in 2025 with an average margin of +15.9. It lost 43-35 at Georgia on 18 October 2025, beat Georgia 39-34 at a neutral site on 1 January and lost 31-27 to Miami at a neutral site on 8 January.
Missouri went 8-5 at +11.3 a game. It lost 13-7 to Virginia at a neutral site on 27 December 2025.
The two teams did not meet in 2025, and this is their first meeting of 2026.
The price
Ole Miss opened at -6 and is -5.5 now, read 15 October 2026 at 20:30 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. That is a half-point move toward Missouri. Both sides of the spread are priced at -110.
The moneyline has barely moved. Ole Miss is -225 and Missouri +185, from -230 and +190 at the open. With the margin removed, that prices Ole Miss to win 66.4% of the time. ESPN’s FPI gives Ole Miss 58.4%.
Pick: Ole Miss -5.5
Ole Miss -5.5 at -110. The gap is 3.6 points against a 3-point threshold.
It rests on 16 games, split 10 and 6. At the open, Ole Miss -6, the gap was 3.1.
What changes it
The line, first. Ole Miss is a bet at -6 or shorter, where the gap is 3.1. At -6.5 the gap is 2.6, and the call becomes a pass. Missouri would need +12.5 to be the bet.
The sample is the other risk. The Ole Miss home half leans on one 56-point win over Georgia State, and without it the bet is a pass. And this season’s form points the other way: Missouri has the better margin against FBS teams, and beat the one opponent the two share by far more.
Availability is not stated here. Check the injury report before you bet.
The total
The total is 58.5, up from 57.5 at the open. The over is -115 and the under -105.
Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, Ole Miss’s games went over 58.5 in 8 of 19, and Missouri’s in 5 of 17.
Pass on the total at 58.5. Both teams’ longer samples lean under it, but Ole Miss’s 2026 games have run high, with a median of 69 points, and that is enough to stay out.
Missouri at Ole Miss, Saturday 17 October, 3:30 PM ET, Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 15 October 2026, 20:30 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 15 October 2026. Rankings: AP Poll, Week 7, 2026. Nothing here states who is available.