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Ohio State vs Indiana Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Grant WellerUpdated 15 Oct 2026

Our number has Indiana by 7.1. At +3.5, take Indiana.

No. 4 Ohio State is a 3.5-point favorite at No. 5 Indiana at DraftKings, after the game opened at a pick’em. Our number for this Ohio State vs Indiana prediction is Indiana by 7.1. The gap is 10.6 points, and the threshold for a bet here is 3.

The market has moved away from us. That does not change the method, it only changes the price, and at this price the gap is wider than it was at the open.

How the number is built

Our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, 2025 and 2026 together.

Indiana is 9-0 at home against FBS teams over that span, winning by 32.4 points a game across 9 games. Ohio State is 6-1 on the road against FBS teams, winning by 18.3 a game across 7 games. The difference is 14.2 points. Half of it, from the unrounded averages of 32.44 and 18.29, is 7.08, which rounds to 7.1.

The base is 16 games, and 11 of them are from 2025. Both sides clear the 4-game minimum.

Indiana at home

Indiana has not lost a home game to an FBS team in this span. In 2025 it beat Old Dominion 27-14, Kennesaw State 56-9, Illinois 63-10, Michigan State 38-13, UCLA 56-6 and Wisconsin 31-7. This season it beat North Texas 52-16, Western Kentucky 38-0 and Northwestern 29-23, the last on 25 September.

The Northwestern game is the one that should worry an Indiana backer. It is the latest home result against an FBS team and the closest of the nine, by 6. The other eight were all by 13 or more.

Ohio State on the road

Ohio State won all five of its FBS road games in 2025: 24-6 at Washington, 34-16 at Illinois, 34-0 at Wisconsin, 34-10 at Purdue and 27-9 at Michigan. This season it lost 24-23 at Texas on 12 September and won 31-14 at Iowa on 3 October.

That is a strong road record. It is still 14.2 points a game short of what Indiana has done at home, and the method splits that difference.

2026 so far

Ohio State is 5-1 and 3-0 in the Big Ten. All six of its games were against FBS teams, and it has won them by 29.5 points a game, scoring 42.7 and allowing 13.2. Its last game was a 45-16 home win over Maryland on 10 October.

2026 point margin in every game, Indiana and Ohio State2026: point margin in every game so farIndiana6-0, +28.3 a game+36+55+38+6+32+3Ohio State5-1, +29.5 a game+53-1+56+23+17+29Coloured bars are wins, dark grey losses, light grey games against teams outside the FBS.
Source: ESPN results, read 15 October 2026; cross-checked with Nucleus for games up to its 11 October pull.

Indiana is 6-0 and 3-0 in the Big Ten. Against its five FBS opponents it is scoring 37.2 and allowing 14.2, a margin of +23.0. Its other win was 55-0 over Howard, a team outside the FBS. Its two road games were 47-15 at Rutgers and 20-17 at Nebraska, the last on 10 October.

On this season alone Ohio State has the better numbers against FBS teams, by 6.5 points a game. That is the case for the other side, and it is why the line has moved.

Last season and the meeting

Indiana went 16-0 in 2025 with an average margin of +29.9. It finished with three wins at neutral sites: 38-3 over Alabama on 1 January, 56-22 over Oregon on 9 January and 27-21 over Miami on 19 January.

Ohio State went 12-2 at +24.1 a game. Both losses came at neutral sites: 13-10 to Indiana on 6 December 2025 and 24-14 to Miami on 31 December 2025.

2025 point margin in every game, Indiana and Ohio State2025: point margin in every game, bowls and playoffs includedIndiana16-0, +29.9 a game+13+47+73+53+5+10+25+50+45+3+24+53+3+35+34+6Ohio State12-2, +24.1 a game+7+70+28+18+39+18+34+24+24+38+33+18-3-10Oldest game on the left. Light grey bars are games against teams outside the FBS.
Source: ESPN results, read 15 October 2026.

That 13-10 game is the only meeting in 2025 or 2026. It was not an Indiana home game or an Ohio State road game, so the method does not use it.

The price

The game opened at a pick’em and Ohio State is -3.5 now, read 15 October 2026 at 20:30 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. That is a 3.5-point move toward Ohio State. Indiana +3.5 is priced at -112 and Ohio State -3.5 at -108.

Indiana opened pick and is +3.5 nowIndiana's line, from the open to nowpickopen picknow +3.5Negative numbers mean Indiana is giving points. The line has moved 3.5 points toward Ohio State.
Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-15 20:30 UTC.

The moneyline has moved the same way. Ohio State is -180 and Indiana +150, from -108 and -112 at the open. With the margin removed, that prices Ohio State to win 61.6% of the time. ESPN’s FPI is much closer, at 51.5% for Ohio State and 48.5% for Indiana.

Moneyline implies Ohio State 61.6 percent, Indiana 38.4 percentChance to win the game, as pricedOhio State 61.6%Indiana 38.4%From DraftKings's moneylines, Ohio State -180 and Indiana +150, margin removed.
Source: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-15 20:30 UTC.

Pick: Indiana +3.5

Indiana +3.5 at -112. The gap is 10.6 points against a 3-point threshold.

It rests on 16 games, split 9 and 7. At the open, a pick’em, the gap was 7.1, so the move toward Ohio State has made the bet bigger, not smaller.

What changes it

The line. Indiana stays the bet as long as it is no more than a 4-point favorite: at Indiana -4 the gap is 3.1, and at -4.5 it is 2.6, a pass. Ohio State would need +10.5 to be the bet.

The 2026 form is the risk. Ohio State has the better margin against FBS teams this season, and Indiana’s latest home win over an FBS team came by 6 and its latest road win by 3. Our number leans on two seasons of home and road results, and 11 of its 16 games are from 2025.

Availability is not stated here. Check the injury report before you bet.

The total

The total is 50.5, up from 48.5 at the open. The over and the under are both -110.

Game totals for Indiana and Ohio State against 50.5Total points in every game against FBS teams, 2025 and 2026, against this game's 50.52030405060708050.5Indiana11 of 20 over 50.5Ohio State7 of 19 over 50.5Each dot is one game against an FBS team. Dots stack where games had the same total.
Source: ESPN results, read 15 October 2026; cross-checked with Nucleus for games up to its 11 October pull. The line: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-15 20:30 UTC.

Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, Indiana’s games went over 50.5 in 11 of 20, and Ohio State’s in 7 of 19. The one meeting produced 23 points.

Pass on the total at 50.5. Indiana’s games split almost evenly around it, and Ohio State’s lean under but not by enough to bet.

Ohio State at Indiana, Saturday 17 October, 12:00 PM ET, Memorial Stadium, Bloomington. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 15 October 2026, 20:30 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 15 October 2026. Rankings: AP Poll, Week 7, 2026. Nothing here states who is available.