2026 NHL Conn Smythe Odds and Predictions

Visit The Industry’s Best

Handicapping Membership
For More NHL Playoff Picks!

Get Free Trial

The 2026 Conn Smythe Trophy odds market has tightened into a much clearer playoff MVP race, and the board now looks very different from the early postseason futures market. Mitch Marner is the current favorite after helping push the Vegas Golden Knights into the Stanley Cup Final, while Frederik Andersen has made a serious charge for the Carolina Hurricanes after a Game 4 shutout against Montreal.

This is the stage where Conn Smythe betting becomes sharper, but also more dangerous. The field is no longer about finding a long list of talented postseason players. It is about identifying which player is most likely to own the final two weeks of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, and which team gives that player the cleanest path to the trophy.

If you are tracking this market alongside daily NHL picks, remember that Conn Smythe value can move quickly. A shutout, a multi-point Final opener, or one bad goaltending night can completely change the board before sportsbooks have time to settle into a clean number.

Below is a full update on the current 2026 Conn Smythe Trophy odds, the favorites, the best betting value, the top longshot, and the recent winners list that shows how this award usually gets decided.

What Is The Conn Smythe Trophy?

The Conn Smythe Trophy is awarded to the most valuable player in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Unlike regular-season NHL awards, this one covers the entire postseason, which means team survival matters almost as much as individual production.

That is why this betting market is so different from a normal player award. A skater can pile up points for two rounds and still disappear from the race if his team goes home. A goalie can be outside the top tier for most of the playoffs and then jump into the favorite range with one dominant conference final or Stanley Cup Final performance.

The award usually goes to a player from the Stanley Cup champion, but that is not a lock. Connor McDavid won it in 2024 despite Edmonton losing the Final, which was a reminder that a losing finalist can still win if the individual postseason is overwhelming enough.

Who Won The Conn Smythe Trophy 2025?

Sam Bennett won the Conn Smythe Trophy in 2025 after helping the Florida Panthers win their second straight Stanley Cup. His postseason scoring, physical edge, and impact through the middle of Florida’s lineup made him the defining player of the Panthers’ championship run.

Bennett’s win is useful context for this year’s race because it shows that the Conn Smythe does not always have to go to the most obvious regular-season superstar. If a player becomes the tone-setter for a Cup winner, voters will reward that postseason-specific value.

Conn Smythe Trophy Odds

The current Conn Smythe Trophy odds are now centered around two teams: Vegas and Carolina. For bettors comparing this award market with the broader NHL odds, the key question is whether Marner’s scoring edge and guaranteed Final spot are worth more than Andersen’s goaltending path if Carolina closes out the East.

This board makes sense for the current playoff picture. Marner has been the strongest skater story on the team already sitting in the Stanley Cup Final. Andersen, meanwhile, has moved into striking range because Carolina is one win away from joining Vegas, and a goalie with a shutout in the conference final always gets attention in this market.

The middle of the board is where the debate gets more interesting. Hall and Stankoven give Carolina more skater options, while Eichel is the best Vegas alternative if voters decide Marner’s production is not enough to separate from the rest of the Golden Knights’ core.

The biggest mistake bettors can make right now is treating this like a normal futures board. The field has narrowed. Montreal players are no longer realistic unless the Canadiens pull off a massive comeback, and Colorado options are gone after Vegas swept the Avalanche in the Western Conference Final.

Conn Smythe Trophy Favorites

The favorites are now much easier to identify, but they still offer very different betting profiles. Marner has the clearest skater case, Andersen has the cleanest goalie surge, and Hall sits in the middle as a Carolina scoring option if voters prefer a skater from the Hurricanes.

Mitch Marner (+195)

Mitch Marner is the current Conn Smythe favorite because he has been the most consistent offensive driver on a Vegas team that already punched its ticket to the Stanley Cup Final. That matters. He does not need his team to survive another elimination test just to stay live in the market.

The strongest part of Marner’s case is that he has controlled the playoff scoring narrative for Vegas. He has been involved in big moments, he has produced across multiple rounds, and his move from Toronto to Vegas gives voters a ready-made storyline if the Golden Knights finish the job.

The concern is teammate competition. Jack Eichel is still a major name, Carter Hart could become a Final story if the goaltending swings the series, and Vegas has enough depth that Marner may need to keep producing in the Final to fully protect his lead.

Frederik Andersen (+265)

Frederik Andersen is the most dangerous challenger on the board. The Hurricanes are in control of the Eastern Conference Final, and Andersen’s Game 4 shutout against the Montreal Canadiens pushed him from goalie value into true Conn Smythe contender status.

Goalies can climb this market faster than skaters because their impact is easier to frame in a short series. If Andersen closes out Montreal, then steals a game or two against Vegas in the Stanley Cup Final, voters will have a very clear argument: Carolina’s goalie turned the postseason.

The risk is that goalie tickets are fragile. One bad Final start can wipe out value quickly, especially if Carolina’s skaters spread the scoring around and no single Hurricanes player separates from the pack.

Taylor Hall (+675)

Taylor Hall is the top Carolina skater on the board, and the price is fair if you believe the Hurricanes win the Stanley Cup without Andersen dominating the Final. Hall has produced enough this postseason to stay in the conversation, and his name value gives voters an easy player to recognize if Carolina’s offense becomes the story.

The issue is timing. Hall did a lot of his damage before the Eastern Conference Final, while Andersen’s recent shutout has become the fresher market-moving moment. Hall probably needs a strong closeout game against Montreal and a big Stanley Cup Final to jump back in front of Andersen among Hurricanes candidates.

Logan Stankoven (+1000)

Logan Stankoven is an interesting plus-money option because his postseason has been loud enough to matter, but the path is narrower than Andersen’s. He needs Carolina to win the Cup, he needs the offense to become the defining part of that run, and he needs to outshine Hall, Aho, Ehlers, and the rest of the Hurricanes’ forward group.

That makes Stankoven more of a price play than a primary prediction. He is live, but he needs a specific Final script where Carolina’s scoring depth turns into one clear breakout story.

Jack Eichel (+1300)

Jack Eichel is the best Vegas pivot if you do not want to chase Marner at the top of the board. He has the name, the role, and the high-end center profile voters respect in a playoff MVP race.

The case for Eichel is simple: Vegas wins the Cup, the Final becomes more about matchup control than raw point totals, and Eichel has two or three signature games that pull the voting conversation away from Marner. That is not impossible, which is why +1300 is interesting.

The problem is that Marner has the head start. Eichel needs to do more than play well. He needs to become the story of the Final.

Best Conn Smythe Trophy Betting Value

The best Conn Smythe Trophy betting value is Frederik Andersen at +265.

Marner is the most likely winner right now, but Andersen’s price is more attractive because his path is so easy to define. Carolina is one win away from the Stanley Cup Final, and if the Hurricanes get there, Andersen immediately becomes the top goalie candidate in a two-team race.

This is also where timing matters. A goalie who just posted a conference final shutout is going to draw attention, but the number has not fully turned into heavy chalk yet. If Carolina closes out Montreal and Andersen plays well in the first game of the Final, this price probably disappears.

For bettors thinking beyond one award market, the Expert Betting Guide fits naturally here because Conn Smythe betting is about timing, price discipline, and understanding how team results can change player futures almost overnight.

Why Not Mitch Marner?

Marner is not a bad bet. He is the favorite for a reason, and he already has the cleanest Vegas case entering the Stanley Cup Final. The issue is that his price has caught up to the story.

At +195, bettors are still getting plus money, but they are paying for the strongest public narrative on the team already through. That is reasonable, but it leaves less room for Eichel, Hart, or a Carolina player to steal the award during the Final.

Best Value Bet: Frederik Andersen (+265)

Top Conn Smythe Trophy Longshot

The top Conn Smythe Trophy longshot is Jack Eichel at +1300.

Eichel is not a deep longshot in the traditional sense, but this market has already tightened so much that the useful longshot range is smaller. He is attached to a team already in the Stanley Cup Final, he plays a premium role, and he has enough star power to become the voting favorite if he dominates the Final.

The case is stronger than most longer prices because Eichel does not need a miracle team outcome. Vegas is already there. He only needs to flip the internal Golden Knights race from Marner to himself, and that can happen quickly if he opens the Final with a big game.

There is real risk, of course. Marner has the current lead, and Carter Hart could enter the conversation if the Final becomes a goalie series. Still, Eichel has the cleanest longshot profile because his team path is already secured and his player ceiling is high enough to matter.

Top Longshot Bet: Jack Eichel (+1300)

Conn Smythe Trophy Predictions

The Conn Smythe prediction depends on how you see the Stanley Cup Final forming. If Vegas wins the Cup, Marner is the player to beat. He has the scoring case, the market lead, and the strongest narrative entering the Final. If Carolina wins the Cup, Andersen is the player with the cleanest path unless one Hurricanes skater takes over the series.

That is why the best prediction and the best bet are slightly different. Marner is the current most likely winner. Andersen is the better value because his price still offers enough upside for a goalie who could be one strong Final away from becoming the favorite.

The final pick is Andersen. Carolina is in control of the East Final, the Hurricanes have the defensive structure to support a goalie-driven Conn Smythe case, and Andersen’s latest shutout gives him exactly the kind of late-playoff moment voters remember.

For readers comparing player futures with the broader team picture, the Stanley Cup odds and predictions page is the more natural supporting read here because Conn Smythe tickets are only as strong as the team path behind them.

Bet: Frederik Andersen (+265)

Recent Conn Smythe Trophy Winners

Recent winners give bettors a good reminder that this award usually follows star players on teams that make it all the way, but there is still room for a losing finalist if the individual postseason is impossible to ignore.

The recent winners list supports the current betting logic. Skaters usually have the edge, especially when they lead a Cup-winning team, but goalies can still win when their impact becomes the playoff story. That is exactly why Marner and Andersen are the two names sitting at the center of the 2026 Conn Smythe Trophy race.