Home run props today: DraftKings’ price on each of 18 hitters to hit a home run in the Tampa Bay Rays at the Cleveland Guardians (ALCS Game 5), Sunday, October 18 at 5:00 p.m. Eastern, as ESPN’s odds feed listed them at 12:56 p.m. Eastern on Sunday, October 18.
The series is tied 2-2. The game at Progressive Field has a total of 6.5 runs, with the Rays -132 and the Guardians +110. Our prediction for the game says: “No bet on Game 5.”
We make no home run call in our MLB predictions, so this page names no bet. It ranks the prices from shortest to longest and sets each one beside the hitter’s season and the pitcher he is likely to face. Hits, strikeouts and the other player lines are on the MLB player props page.
How a home run price reads
“1+” is the bet that the hitter goes deep at least once; “2+” needs two. The shortest price on the board is Junior Caminero at +437: a $100 bet returns $437 profit if he homers, and the price implies a chance of 18.6%.
That chance still holds the book’s margin. The feed carries no price on a hitter not homering, so the margin cannot be taken out of one price, and every implied chance in the tables runs a little high for that reason. A home run price is worth a bet only when you rate the hitter above it.
Rays hitters
They face Parker Messick, the Guardians’ probable starter. In the 2026 regular season he allowed 17 home runs to 747 batters, one every 43.9 batters. This postseason he has allowed 1 in 53 batters over 3 games.
| Hitter | To homer (1+) | Implied | 2+ | 2026 home runs | Plate appearances per home run | Postseason home runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero | +437 | 18.6% | +4600 | 42 in 162 games | 16.7 | 0 in 7 games |
| Yandy Diaz | +610 | 14.1% | +7100 | 22 in 154 games | 31.2 | 1 in 7 games |
| Victor Mesa Jr. | +850 | 10.5% | +10000 | 14 in 79 games | 18.7 | 1 in 7 games |
| Jonathan Aranda | +940 | 9.6% | +10000 | 22 in 155 games | 30.4 | 1 in 7 games |
| Jonny DeLuca | +1080 | 8.5% | +10000 | 11 in 112 games | 33.6 | 0 in 7 games |
| Liam Hicks | +1260 | 7.4% | not posted | 18 in 142 games | 30.8 | 0 in 7 games |
| Taylor Walls | +1400 | 6.7% | not posted | 2 in 124 games | 216.5 | 0 in 7 games |
| Ben Williamson | +1620 | 5.8% | not posted | 3 in 88 games | 95.3 | 0 in 4 games |
| Chandler Simpson | +3000 | 3.2% | not posted | 0 in 151 games | no home run | 0 in 6 games |
Guardians hitters
They face Drew Rasmussen, the Rays’ probable starter. In the 2026 regular season he allowed 14 home runs to 669 batters, one every 47.8 batters. This postseason he has allowed 2 in 51 batters over 2 games.
| Hitter | To homer (1+) | Implied | 2+ | 2026 home runs | Plate appearances per home run | Postseason home runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez | +690 | 12.7% | +9000 | 12 in 125 games | 45.3 | 2 in 9 games |
| Jo Adell | +780 | 11.4% | +9900 | 23 in 159 games | 28.7 | 0 in 9 games |
| Nathaniel Lowe | +870 | 10.3% | +10000 | 17 in 126 games | 25.2 | 0 in 9 games |
| Travis Bazzana | +870 | 10.3% | +10000 | 15 in 124 games | 34.5 | 1 in 9 games |
| Chase DeLauter | +930 | 9.7% | +10000 | 16 in 133 games | 34.9 | 1 in 9 games |
| Patrick Bailey | +990 | 9.2% | not posted | 10 in 112 games | 34.5 | 2 in 9 games |
| Brayan Rocchio | +1100 | 8.3% | +10000 | 15 in 153 games | 39.5 | 0 in 9 games |
| Petey Halpin | +1360 | 6.8% | not posted | 4 in 83 games | 48.8 | 1 in 7 games |
| Steven Kwan | +1620 | 5.8% | not posted | 3 in 151 games | 212.3 | 0 in 9 games |
Where these numbers come from
The home run prices, moneyline and total are DraftKings’, as ESPN’s odds feed carried them at 12:56 p.m. Eastern on Sunday, October 18. Home runs, plate appearances and the pitchers’ batters faced are ESPN’s 2026 regular-season and postseason statistics. A hitter out of the lineup has no home run to hit, so check the lineup before first pitch. The season-long race has its own page, MLB home run leader odds, and the series price is on the World Series odds page.