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The NASCAR Cup Series season is speeding along as we’re roughly one-third of the way done. In fact, you could say that if the season were like a Cup Race, then we’ve just finished the first stage.

And, as of this writing, Hendrick Motorsports won the proverbial first stage. They edged out Joe Gibbs Racing by the nose of the car.

With a few months of racing under our belts, we can definitely see which drivers are positioning themselves as real contenders for the 2025 Cup Series Championship.

Let’s take a look at the latest 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Championship odds, courtesy of the best sports betting sites, and make our early NASCAR Cup Series Championship predictions.

2025 NASCAR Cup Series Season Changes

Before we get into our NASCAR odds and predictions for this futures bet, let’s take a look at some of the major changes to the upcoming Cup Series season:

A Return To Bowman Gray Stadium: It was an exciting exhibition race as NASCAR moved its Clash race from the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum to Bowman Gray Stadium. Chase Elliott came away the winner of the Cook Out Clash at Bowman Gray, which was the first race held at this track since 1971.

NASCAR Heads to Mexico: The Cup Series will have its first points race outside of the US since 1958. It’s also the first time ever racing in Mexico. That event will take place on June 15.

In-Season Cup Series Tournament: NASCAR will hold its first in-season tournament that will span over five races from June 28 to July 27. Only 32 Drivers will compete with each race reducing the field. The final race will take place at Dover and the winner will receive $1 million dollars.

New TV Partners: NASCAR’s Cup Series will remain on FOX and NBC as usual. However, races and practices will also be found on Prime Video and TNT this year as well.

2025 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Odds

There’s no surprise at the top of the betting boards for the 2025 Cup Series Championship. Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell are in the front row just like at the start of the season. Ryan Blaney and Denny Hamlin were both in the second row but William Byron bumped Blaney to the third row.

The reigning Cup Series Champion, Joey Logano, fell in the odds despite winning a race to open up the month of May. However, the biggest mover was Josh Berry. He stole a race victory this season and went from longshot status to “saying there is a chance.”

Keep reading to see if our Cup Series Championship predictions have changed after the first stage of the season and how they compare to some of the best handicappers.

NASCAR Championship Favorites

The following drivers are considered the odds-on favorites to win the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Championship. Each driver listed below, features their current season stats at time of publication, their 2024 Cup Series season results, and their career best Cup finish:

Kyle Larson

• Wins: 2
• Top 5: 7
• Top 10: 8
• 2024 Finish: 6th
• Career Best: 2021 Cup Champion

Kyle Larson remains the odds-on favorite to win the Cup Series Championship this year and his odds have actually improved since the opening lines were released. Larson went from +500 down to +350.

The #5 car has been near that top of the driver standings for most of the season and leads the field in Top 5s, Top 10s, laps led, stage wins, and is tied for the second most race victories.

Larson’s victories came in the Straight Talk Wireless 400 at Homestead-Miami and Bristol Motor Speedway. He dominated both tracks. He also finished in the Top 3 at Talladega, Phoenix and Atlanta.

Last year, Larson led the Cup Series with six wins (four regular, two Playoff) and 15 Top 5s. Unfortunately, he failed to make the Final 4 and contend for a Championship. The 2021 Champ fell short in the Round of 8.

Larson’s six checkered flags were the most he’s had in a season since his incredible run of 10 victories in 2021, the year he won his only Cup Series Championship.

At the start of the season, I made the following statements about Larson:

“Although he finished 6th last year, I fully expect Larson to get back to the Championship Race this season and compete for his second title.”

Nothing has changed since then. In fact, if anything, Larson has already quieted any doubters and made his supporters, like me, look even smarter after three months of racing.

Christopher Bell

• Wins: 3
• Top 5: 15
• Top 10: 3
• 2024 Finish: 5^th
• Career Best: 3^rd in 2022

When the calendar closed in on March, Christopher Bell marched his way to the front of the field with three straight victories. His first came in Atlanta after starting 32^nd overall. Then he took the checkered flag at COTA, which was the first road race of the season.

Bell followed those two wins up by dominating the Shriners Children’s 500 at Phoenix in early March. It seemed like the #20 car was unbeatable.

And, though he hasn’t won since then, Bell has two more Top 3s and a slew of Top 10s since the Phoenix win.

Last season, Bell tallied career highs with 15 Top 5s and 23 Top 10s. His total number of Top 10 finishes led the field and he also had a 12.8 average finish which was the second-best average in the Cup Series.

As I stated at the beginning of the season, “Bell is a real contender this year with a strong team, solid car, and the skills to win on any type of track.”

I still feel that way. And, as you can see from the odds, the sportsbooks still feel the same as well.

Denny Hamlin

• Wins: 2
• Top 5: 5
• Top 10: 6
• 2024 Finish: 8th
• Career Best: 3rd in 2014 and 2021

It wasn’t long after Bell’s hot streak, that his JGR teammate Denny Hamlin went on a streak of his own. Hamlin blasted the field to four Top 5s in a row, which included victories at Martinsville and Darlington.

Although he’s cooled down since that stretch, Hamlin remains one of the top drivers in the field. His odds improved slightly from +700 to +600 and he’s consistently one of the race favorites each week.

As the green flag dropped on the 2025 season, I was fading Hamlin to win the Championship this year. Although I stated that he would surpass his 8^th place result from last year, I believe that the #11 car has fallen behind the younger drivers of the sport today.

After one-third of the season is done, I still feel the same about Hamlin. He’s always the bride’s maid but never the bride.

William Byron

• Wins: 1
• Top 5: 5
• Top 10: 7
• 2024 Finish: 3rd
• Career Best: 3rd in 2023 and 2024

Wiliam Byron has been a consistent presence at the top of the driver standings since opening up the 2025 Cup Series season with a win at the Daytona 500.

He’s one of a few drivers in the Top 20 that have yet to score a DNF. That consistency has made Byron a weekly contender to win the race.

Last year, Byron finished as the best Hendrick Motorsports’ driver, which is impressive considered that team also includes Larson, Chase Elliott and Alex Bowman.

He closed out the year with six straight Top 6 finishes and was third overall after coming up short in his quest to win the Championship.

At the beginning of the season, I stated that Byron closed the gap on Larson and was the second-best Hendrick driver in 2025. I also proclaimed that he’s worthy of consideration to win the Championship this year.

If you’ve watched the first one-third of the season, there’s no possible way you can argue with either of those two statements.

Ryan Blaney +700 

• Wins: 0
• Top 5: 4
• Top 10: 5
• 2024 Finish: 2nd
• Career Best: 2023 Cup Champion

At the time of this writing, my pre-season thoughts about Ryan Blaney have missed the mark:

“I’ve never been a huge Blaney fan, but he’s certainly a talented driver with a Championship and a runner-up on his resume. Considering that he’s still in his prime, Blaney could be a solid wager throughout the year and for this NASCAR prop bet.”

Currently, Blaney has yet to win a race in 2025, and is tied for the most DNFs (4) in the field.

I’m often fading the #12 car each week. There’s only been a few occasions where I thought that Blaney had a real shot at winning a race, but still avoided him.

It appears as the weather starts to warm up, Blaney has as well. Unfortunately, his recent  NASCAR results haven’t led to a victory as of yet.

As of now, I would avoid betting on Blaney winning his second title in three years.

Best NASCAR Championship Betting Value

The following drivers are my NASCAR picks for the best betting value to win the 2025 Cup Series Championship:

Chase Elliott +1000

• Wins: 0
• Top 5: 3
• Top 10: 6
• 2024 Finish: 7th
• Career Best: 2020 Cup Champion

Despite failing to win a race as of this writing, Chase Elliott has been a very consistent driver and sits near the top of the driver standings especially due to his 11.3 average finish on the year. Elliott has finished in the Top 20 for every race so far.

This is a nice turnaround from last year’s poor showing where Elliott had his lowest win total (1) since 2017 (zero wins). He also had his lowest number of Top 5s (11) and Top 10s (19) since 2019.

Furthermore, Elliott is arguably the best road course driver among full-time Cup Series drivers. And, last year, he didn’t win one road race.

Yet, despite the subpar 2024 season, I still thought highly of Elliott coming into this year:

“With that said, I do like Elliott’s chances of turning things around this year. He’s far too talented of a driver to continue a trend of disappointment and mediocre results. I think he gets back to winning multiple road races in 2025, and makes a run at another Championship Race appearance.”

For the record, Elliott was 4^th at COTA this season, which is the only road race up to this point.

Joey Logano

• Wins: 1
• Top 5: 1
• Top 10: 2
• 2024 Finish: First
• Career Best: 2018, 2022, 2024 Cup Champion

Up until Texas Motor Speedway at the start of May, the reigning Cup Champ Joey Logano was having a miserable season to date. He had just one Top 10 at that point of the year. Then things turned around for the #22 car as he won the Wurth 400.

The victory pretty much cemented Logano’s spot in the Playoffs as I don’t see the Cup Series having 17 different race winners. As of this writing, there’s only been seven different winners with Logano becoming the 7^th.

Because of his season so far, Logano’s Championship odds fell from +900 to +1200. This definitely adds more betting value to the three-time champ.

Logano is my son’s favorite driver and has been since he was in kindergarten. So, I always crack a smile whenever the #22 car wins a race or a championship because it makes my son happy. Although I’m a Larson fan first, it’s still cool to see Logano win.

I do question how good this car is during the regular season. It seems that he’s behind the pack when it comes to speed and most results. With that said, whenever Logano gets into the Playoffs, he’s a real threat to win the Championship.

Logano has the possibility of winning a third title in four seasons, a fourth overall, and a Jimmie Johnson type run in the sport of NASCAR.

Chase Briscoe +2000

• Wins: 0
• Top 5: 3
• Top 10: 4
• 2024 Finish: 14th
• Career Best: 9th in 2022

At the start of the season, Chase Briscoe was one of my value bets. He made the move to Joe Gibbs Racing, which is tied with Hendrick as arguable the best team in the sport. Although, Team Penske would have something to say about that.

Unfortunately, my early season prediction for Briscoe has not paid off as of yet:

“I would not be surprised if this move to JGR cements Briscoe as a Top 10 driver next year and a true Playoff contender.”

As of this writing, Briscoe is 13^th in the standings with only four Top 10s. His season has not panned out like I thought it would. Fortunately, there’s still an entire second half of the regular season for this team to turn things around.

Additionally, Briscoe’s odds fell from +2000 to +3000, which gives us even more value. But it also puts him closer to the longshot status. I’m not ready to give up on Briscoe yet. However, if he doesn’t start contending for checkered flags, then I will jump off the bandwagon.

Top Longshot To Win NASCAR Championship

Alex Bowman (+3000) remains my longshot bet this year. At the start of the season, I made the following proclamation about the #48 car:

“With the way his 2024 title run ended, and his strong run over the final stretch of the season, I like for Bowman to be a Playoff contender this year and possibly even move up the ladder in Hendrick Motorsports.”

Although Bowman has yet to win a race this year, he does have six Top 10s which is the third most in the Series as of this writing. Furthermore, he finished last year with a career-best Top 5s (8) and Top 10s (17).

Last year, Bowman was disqualified from moving on to the Round of 8. He had a strong run in the Playoffs that continued even after his DQ. I believe that if the #48 car makes the Playoffs this year, we could see another run out of this team.

Despite drivers like Josh Berry and Austin Cindric having already won a race this season and still sitting in the longshot category, I’m sticking with Bowman for now.

2025 NASCAR Cup Series Championship

I started off the year with the following prediction:

“Top 5 drivers heading into the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season are Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, William Byron, Joey Logano, and Ryan Blaney. In other words, the three top teams (Hendrick, JGR, Team Penske) will contend for another NASCAR Championship.”

As of this writing, I am removing Blaney from the mix and replacing him with Denny Hamlin. Although I think Hamlin will come up short in his quest for the title, his consistency this year, his victories, and multiple Championship Race appearances, give me confidence he can be a Top 5 driver for the 2025 season.

With that said, I was also really high on Hendrick coming into the year especially Larson and Byron. I still believe Elliott will be a contender by time we get deep into the Playoffs.

Like I predicted at the start of the year, I am taking Kyle Larson to win the 2025 Cup Series Championship. Although I left room to pivot to Byron or Elliott if they got off to a hot start, Larson has pretty much accomplished what I thought he would up to this point.

And, the #5 car was close to winning even more races up to this point of the season. It’s hard to think that he will fade in the Round of 8 like he did last year. Instead, I see a highly motivated driver and team on a mission to win another Championship.

Bet: Kyle Larson (+350)

Recent NASCAR Champions

The following list only includes the winners during the current Playoff format, which began in 2015: