2025-26 NBA Southwest Division Odds and Predictions

The 2025-26 NBA season is in its final stretch, and the Southwest Division race no longer carries much mystery. San Antonio has already clinched the division, which shifts this from a live futures market into a pricing snapshot of how the board moved over the course of the season.

That market took a major turn. Houston opened as the clear favorite, but San Antonio surged past the field and turned the division into a runaway, while the rest of the teams drifted into longshot territory with no realistic path left.

Below is a full betting breakdown of the latest NBA odds for the Southwest Division, along with a final Southwest Division prediction based on where the market sits right now.

2025-26 NBA Southwest Division Odds

Here is the current Southwest Division futures board.

Houston opened as the preseason favorite at -210, but that position did not last. San Antonio is now the clear top team on the board at -1100 after flipping the division race and closing it out.

The Spurs were the biggest riser, moving from +420 to -1100, while Houston was the biggest faller after sliding from -210 to +650. At this stage, the market no longer looks competitive. It is mostly decided, and the remaining prices reflect that.

If you’re betting the Southwest Division race now, it helps to compare this futures board with the latest NBA odds and keep tracking how nightly results shape the standings. Bettors looking for more day-to-day context can also check the NBA picks and previews hub to follow injuries, form, and matchup trends that can still swing a tight division race.

NBA Southwest Division Teams

Here is how each team stacks up from a betting perspective right now.

San Antonio Spurs (-1100)

San Antonio sits first in the division at 58-18 and has already clinched the Southwest. The Spurs also enter this spot with elite late-season form after winning 10 straight and going 10-0 over their last 10 games.

This team is priced here because it earned it. Victor Wembanyama led the Spurs on both ends, and the De’Aaron Fox addition raised the ceiling of the roster in a meaningful way. There is no tiebreaker discussion left because the race is over.

The clearest reason San Antonio could win the division is simple: it already did. The clearest reason it may fall short no longer applies in this market.

San Antonio may not be a serious threat in this division race, but the long-term intrigue is obvious with Victor Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox in place. That also makes the NBA Northwest Division odds and predictions a useful related read for bettors comparing how different Western division races stack up across the conference.

From a betting standpoint, the number is not really playable now. At -1100, this price is more stale confirmation than usable futures value.

Houston Rockets (+650)

Houston is second in the division at 47-29, but the gap is too large now at 11 games behind San Antonio. The Rockets did play solid basketball late, winning four straight and going 6-4 in their last 10, but that run came too late to matter in this market.

This team opened as the favorite for a reason. Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun, and Amen Thompson gave Houston a strong core, but the loss of Fred VanVleet for the season changed the shape of the team’s path. San Antonio’s surge did the rest.

The best case for Houston was a veteran push to stay even with the Spurs deep into the season. Instead, the division slipped away, and the current +650 price no longer reflects a real betting opportunity.

Houston’s case becomes even more interesting when you zoom out and look at the bigger title picture. The NBA championship odds and predictions page is a useful companion here because it helps bettors decide whether the Rockets are just a live divisional value ticket or a team with broader postseason upside as well.

This is not a viable division bet now. The Rockets are priced as the only visible alternative, but that path is already gone.

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Dallas Mavericks (+50000)

Dallas is fifth in the division at 24-52 and sits 34 games behind the leader. The Mavericks also come into this price after losing two straight and going 2-8 over their last 10 games.

The market has pushed Dallas into dead longshot territory because the season never developed into a serious division challenge. Cooper Flagg became the central long-term story, while Kyrie Irving being unavailable for the season removed any realistic path to sustained contention.

The clearest reason Dallas could have won the division would have been a healthy veteran structure around its top-end talent. That never materialized, and the lack of consistent winning form made the price collapse.

Dallas is the biggest cautionary tale on the board because preseason expectations no longer match the current reality. Looking at the NBA Western Conference odds and predictions can help bettors frame whether the Mavericks still have any meaningful path left in the bigger playoff picture after such a dramatic collapse.

At +50000, this is not a playable futures ticket. It is effectively dead.

Memphis Grizzlies (+50000)

Memphis is tied for third/fourth in the division at 25-51 and sits 33 games behind San Antonio. The Grizzlies have also lost two straight and gone 2-8 in their last 10.

This price reflects a season that fell apart from both a roster and betting standpoint. Ja Morant missing the rest of the season was the biggest blow, and the loss of Desmond Bane from the roster removed another major piece of the team’s ceiling. The coaching change to Tuomas Iisalo added to a year defined more by transition than contention.

The clearest path for Memphis would have been a healthy star-led rebound season. Instead, injuries and turnover wiped out that scenario early enough to make the current number meaningless.

Memphis may be the clear favorite right now, but the better betting question is whether that price still offers enough room to work. That is why it helps to compare this market with the broader NBA Western Conference odds and predictions, where bettors can judge whether the Grizzlies’ strong division profile really translates into bigger postseason credibility.

There is no betting value here. The Grizzlies are no longer a realistic division play.

New Orleans Pelicans (+50000)

New Orleans is tied for third/fourth in the division at 25-51, also 33 games behind the leader. The Pelicans enter this part of the market on a five-game losing streak and with a 4-6 record in their last 10.

Zion Williamson and Dejounte Murray gave New Orleans at least some top-end name value, but the team never turned that into real division pressure. Zion’s fluctuating availability also made it harder for the market to treat this team as a reliable futures option. The Murray acquisition mattered, but not enough to shift the standings in a meaningful way.

The best case for New Orleans was a healthy Zion-led push with enough momentum to force pressure on the top of the division. That never happened, and the combination of poor record and weak late-season form left this team buried.

Like the other +50000 teams, this number is not playable. The Pelicans are effectively out of the futures conversation.

NBA Southwest Division Predictions

The safest team was San Antonio, and that is no longer debatable. The Spurs own the best record in the division at 58-18, closed the race with a dominant late-season run, and already secured the title. From a pure team-strength and market-result standpoint, they were the right side.

Southwest Division betting makes more sense when you compare it with the rest of the NBA futures board. Looking at the NBA Pacific Division odds and predictions and NBA Atlantic Division odds and predictions helps show where this race fits in the bigger leaguewide futures picture.

As for value, there is no better alternative left on the board. Houston is the only team with a remotely respectable current number, but the division is already decided, and the other three teams are functionally dead tickets. That means there is no true value play available at this point, even if San Antonio was the correct side all along.

Bet: No Bet (Not actionable)

Recent NBA Southwest Division Winners

If you want to extend this handicap beyond one division, it also makes sense to compare it with the NBA Southeast Division odds and predictions and the NBA championship odds and predictions. That gives bettors a cleaner way to connect one divisional market with the league’s broader futures picture.

Here is a look at the recent history of the Southwest Division.