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Context is key, and we need to look at every matchup through a nuanced lens every single week. Week 9 in the NFL is no different, as we definitely have a lot of favorites in interesting spots – possibly some situations bettors can exploit.
Some teams may already be eyeing a Super Bowl as we approach the midway part of the regular season, but even the best teams can get tripped up. I’ll go over my favorite upsets for the week, and if you want regular plays, take a look at our Week 9 NFL picks.
NFL Week 9 Underdog Picks
| Team | Spread | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|
| Carolina Panthers | +13 (-115) | +575 |
| Atlanta Falcons | +5.5 (-110) | +210 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | +3 (-105) | +145 |
| New Orleans Saints | +13.5 (-110) | +625 |
This really isn’t the week to bet on NFL underdogs, let me just start with that. Virtually none of the underdog teams are in great spots this week, and a few are dealing with question marks under center.
The only real consolation is that there are bound to be a few upsets, regardless. Perhaps that can convince us to aim high in a couple of spots.
Concerning my Week 9 NFL underdog picks, three of the four have situations to monitor when it comes to the quarterback position. I’ll dissect all of them a bit closer, and also build an underdog parlay to see how much cash you could bring home this week if all of my NFL upsets deliver.
Of course, I am just one voice here at Scores and Stats. We have a bunch of terrific NFL betting experts, as well as elite offerings. You can test it all out for free via our sports handicapping service.
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NFL Underdog Picks For Week 9
Check out our best NFL underdogs this week:
Carolina Panthers (+575) vs. Green Bay Packers (-900)
My first week 9 NFL upset pick has the Carolina Panthers heading into Lambeau Field and giving the Green Bay Packers a game. I don’t think CAR will win the game outright, but Green Bay is feeling pretty good right now after handing former Packers QB Aaron Rodgers a loss.
Green Bay could be on an emotional high right now, while they also may lack the urgency they need to live up to this lofty spread. I can see them playing down to the level of competition that’s across from them in this one, which is something they often do.
Don’t believe me? Go look at how Green Bay fared against the likes of the Cleveland Browns, Cincinnati Bengals, and Arizona Cardinals. They were huge betting favorites in those spots, and they struggled to finish those teams off. In fact, they very nearly lost to the Cardinals and they did lose to Cleveland.
On the year, the Packers have just one loss, but it was a game they were favored in. They also have a tie; another game where they were supposed to win. Overall, they are just 3-4 against the spread as the favorite.
Carolina will be highly motivated to win this game, too. The team could have injured quarterback Bryce Young back in the saddle, while the Panthers are better (4-4) than people seem to care to admit. This is undeniably an erratic team, but one that can run the ball well and has spurts where their defense is problematic.
Green Bay probably comes out on top, but the Panthers can keep this one within two touchdowns.
Atlanta Falcons (+210) vs. New England Patriots (-250)
Next up are the Atlanta Falcons, who much like the Carolina Panthers, never seem to know who they are as a team. The Falcons had a seemingly very winnable home date with the Miami Dolphins last week, but completely imploded in a blowout loss.
Atlanta could get some good news if starting quarterback Michale Penix Jr. is able to return to the lineup, but even if he’s out, the Falcons still seem a little sneaky. The two reasons why? The New England Patriots could be due for a letdown and Atlanta could be pretty desperate after falling to 3-4.
The Falcons are quickly exiting the NFC North division crown conversation, and if they continue to slide much further, they may not even be in the playoff discussion. The Dirty Birds still have plenty of talent on offense, with the likes of Drake London, Bijan Robinson, and Kyle Pitts offering explosive potential, even in a less than ideal matchup.
New England’s possible complacency is the big kicker for me, though. The Pats have been red hot, winning each of their last five games. Even the best teams get tripped up, however, while the rival Buffalo Bills actually lost to this very Falcons team.
Atlanta can still be a lot to handle when they are running the ball effectively. That will admittedly be tough to get going against the league’s 2nd best run defense, but the Pats are much more beatable through the air. If Penix returns and can inject some life into ATL’s passing game, it could breathe some life back into this offense and give the Falcons a shot at the road upset.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-170) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (+145)
The Las Vegas Raiders are undeniably on life support. They enter week 9 at just 2-5, and are a very distant fourth in an ultra competitive AFC West division.
This doesn’t look like a playoff contender at the moment, but I’m not willing to mail it in just yet for a team that has Pete Carroll calling the shots, as well as plenty of talent. Supremely banged up prior to their bye week, the Raiders may have gotten a much-needed break at precisely the right time.
Quarterback Geno Smith has been awful, but not having an array of healthy weapons – namely superstar tight end Brock Bowers (knee) – has taken its toll. Las Vegas could come out refocused and at 100%, which could be enough at home against a historically inconsistent Jacksonville Jaguars team.
To their credit, the Jaguars (4-3) have resembled a playoff team for much of 2025. However, the media has floated Brian Thomas Jr. trade rumors and the team has still endured an up and down season. It would not be at all unlike this franchise to lose once again and drop to .500 on the year.
New Orleans Saints (+625) vs. Los Angeles Rams (-1000)
Lastly, we can really swing for the fences with the New Orleans Saints. Just like with the Panthers, though, I’d feel a lot better about attacking their +13.5 spread, rather than backing them to win at +625.
That doesn’t feel super likely, as they’re running into a tough Los Angeles Rams team that can shred them through the air. It’s possible that would be the case even at less than 100%, but the Rams are slated to get stud receiver Puka Nacua back, cementing an elite offense.
L.A. has the edge on the other side, too, as they have a nasty defense up front that should be able to take care of business.
That said, the Saints are making a big change, as they’ve benched starting quarterback Spencer Rattler in favor of rookie second round pick, Tyler Shough. I’m not a believer that Rattler was actually the problem for the Saints, but New Orleans seems to think changing QBs could provide their offense with a necessary jolt.
If that ends up being true, the Saints could surprise the Rams, who much like Green Bay, could easily be guilty of coasting against an inferior squad. No, the Saints aren’t the better team (or good, even), but this is a big reason why NFL upsets happen in the first place; nobody thinks they can.
New Orleans still has solid weapons in Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, and Rashid Shaheed. If Shough can deliver the ball to them on time, the Saints may have a chance to give the Rams a closer than expected fight.
NFL Underdog Parlay
- Carolina Panthers ATS +13 (-115)
- Atlanta Falcons ATS +5.5 (-110)
- Las Vegas Raiders ML (+145)
- New Orleans Saints ATS +13.5 (-110)
This is a pretty gross parlay, so I do encourage you to simply target my week 9 NFL underdog picks individually. If you insist on stacking them together in a parlay, just make sure you’re shopping around for the best odds at your favorite online betting sites.
You can go the extra mile and bet on all four of this week’s underdog plays to win, but I’d definitely play the spread in most of these spots. Any team can beat any team, but banking on all of these teams getting huge upsets in the same week feels like a bad idea.
Carolina can beat a huge 13-point spread, though, and New Orleans – albeit less likely to do so – could do the same in Los Angeles. If these picks hit, you’re looking at a sick $1,534 coming back your way for every $100 risked.
If you really want to throw caution to the wind and bet all moneylines, you could win over $38,000. That is quite the tall order, though, so I suggest playing it “safe” with the suggested parlay above.
Want even more bets you can string together? Check out what we’re cooking up in our Week 9 NFL parlays breakdown and our best College Football parlays of the week.
Best NFL Underdog Picks For Week 9
I like all four of my week nine NFL underdog plays, but I absolutely have confidence in some more than others. Each week I am tasked with highlighting four NFL upset picks I like, but the reality is there aren’t even always going to be four underdogs that win every single week.
Due to this harsh reality, I prefer to separate my underdog bets and/or target the spreads more often than the moneyline. And if I had to single out one bet, I’d target the Panthers to beat a hefty 13-point spread.
True, the game is at Lambeau Field and the Panthers aren’t exactly elite, but Green Bay has struggled immensely as a large favorite on the year. A Packers win is probably still a safe bet, but don’t be shocked if Carolina puts up a fight.
