Week 12 of the 2025-26 NFL season has arrived and there are a number of NFL betting spreads and moneylines that we’re salivating over. There are a number of large spreads that dot the Week 12 NFL betting  landscape. While they might not make this Underdog list, they could definitely show up in our best NFL parlay picks of the week.

Before we get into our Week 12 Underdog picks, let’s recap our Week 11 selections. We went 2-2 last week with outright wins by the Broncos and Bears. Unfortunately, the Bucs and Bengals let us down. Tampa faced Josh “Superman” Allen without any kryptonite. And, the Bengals spit on those who backed them to cover.

With that said, we do have a handful of NFL picks for Week 12 that we are really high on. We feel that most of these picks have lines that the sportsbooks missed the mark on. And, that’s where we swoop in and try to maximize the perceived betting value.

So, without further delay, let’s dive over the top of this pile, cross the goal line, and make some winning NFL underdog picks.

NFL Week 12 Underdog Picks

Team	Spread	Moneyline
Indianapolis Colts	+3.5	+155
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	+6.5	+260
Carolina Panthers	+7	+270
Cleveland Browns	+4	+175

Over the last three weeks, we’ve gone 9-3 with our Underdog picks: Week 9 (3-1), Week 10 (4-0), and Week 11 (2-2). So, even though we didn’t hit our four-leg Underdog parlay card last week, we’re still nailing these dogs at an impressive clip in November.

This week, all of our underdog NFL teams have appealing spreads that we’re targeting. They’re also all road teams, which is why the lines are as appealing. Of course, I am just one voice here at Scores and Stats. We have a bunch of terrific NFL betting experts, as well as elite offerings. You can test it all out for free via our sports handicapping service

NFL Underdog Picks For Week 12

Check out our best NFL underdogs this week:

Indianapolis Colts +3.5 (-110) vs. Kansas City Chiefs

This spread is rather surprising considering a few key factors: Colts record this season, Indy coming off a Bye Week, and Indy’s record versus the Chiefs.

Currently, the Indianapolis Colts are 8-2 on the season and sit third in the AFC due to Denver and New England both sitting 9-2. Yet, Indy has a better conference record than those two teams do. The Colts are three games better than the Chiefs coming into this weekend’s huge matchup.

Another reason why I like Indy as a +3.5 underdog, is the fact that they’re coming off a Bye Week. So, the Colts have had more time to prepare for this matchup with the Chiefs. Don’t underestimate Bye Week preparation especially since Indy was returning from their game in Germany.

One of the biggest reasons why I like Indy is that they’re 15-4 SU and 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games versus the Chiefs. These trends can’t be ignored.

Kansas City has lost two games in a row and they were physically beaten up by the Bills and Broncos. KC lost the battle in the trenches against those two teams. The Colts are another physical team that should win the battle in the trenches, as well.

Indy has the no.3 rush offense at 145.3 ypg. That’s only two yards per game less than Buffalo who leads the league. KC gives up 100 ypg on the ground, but both the Bills and Broncos found success against the Chiefs’ run defense.

On the flip side, Indy is tough against the run and the Chiefs are struggling to run the ball consistently. Furthermore, Indy had two weeks to get Sauce Gardner up to speed after the trade deadline, which will be huge in this matchup.

I’m not saying that KC can’t win this game. What I am saying is that the Colts will cover the 3.5 points whether in defeat or by winning outright.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6.5 (-110) vs. Los Angeles Rams

While Tampa Bay let us down last week in Buffalo, I have a hard time thinking that they will drop three games in a row by a touchdown or more.

The Buccaneers have already lost two games in a row to AFC East teams – Patriots and Bills. However, they were punched in the mouth against Buffalo as Josh Allen totaled six touchdowns. Now, they travel to the West Coast to battle the NFC’s no.2 team Los Angeles Rams on Sunday Night Football.

Between the Bucs losing streak and the Panthers winning ways, this NFC South division is a tight one. So, Tampa Bay is definitely feeling the pressure from Carolina who is only a half game back.

The Bucs have not fared well against the Rams in recent years as they’re just 2-8 SU in the last 10 head-to-head meetings.

With that said, I see a gritty, desperate Buccaneers team this week. Matthew Stafford is a talented QB but he’s not able to scramble and make plays outside of the pocket like Allen did last weekend versus the Bucs defense.

I think Tampa Bay is going to keep this matchup close. Definitely within a touchdown. The key will be Tampa getting pressure on Stafford and cracking the Rams pass blocking success so far. They rank as the third best line in regards to the lowest sack rate (3.97%).

Another area that will determine the victor, is takeaways. Both teams rank in the Top 5 for takeaways and are also two of the best in not turning the ball over. So, pressure on Stafford and turnovers will be the deciding factors in this matchup.

As long as Emeka Egbuka is healthy and playing, the Bucs will keep this game close with an aggressive offensive gameplan and timely defensive stops.

Carolina Panthers +7 (-110) vs. San Francisco 49ers

At the start of the season, this Monday Night Football matchup was laughable at best. However, now that we are just a few days away, this game has plenty of Playoff and entertainment value.

Let’s not pretend that the 49ers are a great team this season. Don’t let their 7-4 record fool you. This team has been devastated by injuries on defense and they seem to struggle with run blocking despite having one of the best running backs in the league – Chirstian McCaffrey.

The 49ers average 94.8 rushing yards per game. With that said, they do have the no.2 passing attack in the NFL (254.5 ypg) despite a number of injuries to their receiving core. Additionally, they did a lot of that with starter Brock Purdy out of action due to injuries.

If the 49ers make the Playoffs this year, it will be a remarkable accomplishment considering the amount of talent that has missed time due to injuries.

Not quite as remarkable, but definitely exciting, is Carolina’s 6-5 record and actually being a competitive team this season. For a franchise that was a doormat the last few years, sitting with a winning record in November and fighting for a Playoff spot as of Week 12, this Panthers team has already accomplished a moral victory.

There are two reasons why I like Carolina to cover this seven-point spread. The first is the fact that the 49ers have the worst pass rush in the NFL based on their no.32 ranked sack rate. This is due to injuries but it’s a huge advantage for Bryce Young and the Panthers offense.  

Last week, Young put up 448 passing yards along with three TDs. He set a new Carolina record and put on the best performance of his career. The 49ers have the no.28 pass defense that allows 249.1 ypg. This bodes well for Young and his passing weapons like McMillan who tallied 130 yards and 2 TDs on eight catches last weekend.

The second reason why I like Carolina to cover is the fact that the 49ers have an inconsistent offensive line that has seen poor performances like against the Jaguars where Jacksonville beat up Purdy. Carolina doesn’t have a great pass rush either, but they are consistent and they are decent at stopping the run.

I see the Panthers’ defensive front seven playing solidly and their offense scoring enough to keep this game within seven points and possibly even contend for the win in the end.

The 49ers are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games and 7-13 ATS in their last 20 overall games. The Panthers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 head-to-head meetings with the 49ers. Additionally, Carolina is 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.

Cleveland Browns +4 (-110) vs. Las Vegas Raiders

The Cleveland Browns have lost three games in a row and the Las Vegas Raiders have lost four in a row. The Browns are coming off a one-score loss to the Ravens last weekend, while the Raiders were beat up on MNF in Week 11. Dallas won that game 33-16 but it wasn’t even that close.

Shedeur Sanders will get the start this weekend and I think he will find moderate success. Last weekend, Sanders came into the game versus the Ravens after starting QB Gabriel was injured. At least this week, Sanders will get all of the starting reps which will better prepare him and the rest of the offense.

I see a lot of fans and pundits jumping all over the Raiders in this game. However, I like the Browns to cover and possibly even win outright.

Neither team has played great. However, Cleveland’s defense is the difference maker in this matchup. They’re no.2 in sack rate (10.96%) and the Raiders give up the sixth highest sack rate (9.04%).

Furthermore, Cleveland has the no.1 pass defense that allows only 167 ypg. Geno Smith is going to be in for a long game. What makes matters worse for the Raiders, and lends even more credibility to my pick, is the fact that Las Vegas can’t run the ball. They have the 30^th rushing attack at 81.4 ypg.

All the Cleveland offense has to do is not turn the ball over and score at least 16 points which is their average. The Raiders only score 15.5 ppg.

I like for the Browns to possibly win this game outright. However, I am taking the four points since we’re still talking about Cleveland.

The Raiders are 2-7 ATS in their last nine AFC North games, 3-6 ATS in their last nine overall games, and 2-5 ATS in their last seven Week 12 games.

NFL Underdog Parlay

• Indianapolis Colts +3.5 (-110)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6.5 (-110)
• Carolina Panthers +7 (-110)
• Cleveland Browns +4 (-110)

We have another massive parlay payout where you can win 12-times your wager. All we need are these four underdogs to cover the spreads. They don’t even have to win. And, most of these lines cover key numbers like 3, 6, and 7.

The Colts have had the Chiefs’ number over the last decade and are coming off a Bye Week. The Panthers are coming off their best offensive performance this decade. The Bucs are too talented to be held down three weeks in a row. And, the Browns’ could see some magic with Sanders as the starting QB against a bad Raiders team.

Underdog parlays are risky bets, but this one has some real juice that we think has a serious shot at hitting. If you lay $100 on this four-leg parlay at the top online betting sites, then you would win $1228. That’s a 12x on your initial investment.

I don’t know about you, but a small flier on this four-leg parlay seems like a great addition to your Week 12 NFL card. Also, if you want more exciting parlay action, then check out our best NFL parlays of the week and our best College Football parlays of the week.

Best NFL Underdog Picks For Week 12

Obviously, the Browns Underdog pick is the riskiest. So, if you want to drop them from the parlay ticket then that makes sense. With that said, the Colts are my favorite Underdog pick for Week 12.

Indy is 15-4 SU and 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games versus the Chiefs. They are coming off a Bye Week, back to full health, and had two weeks to get their top CB Sauce Gardner up to speed in a new defense. This is key for Indy’s stretch run towards the top seed in the AFC.

I think KC could kick a field goal to win the game, but that still allows us to hit on Indy covering the 3.5-point spread. And, I can also envision a scenario where the Colts win this game outright due to their advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball.

Offensively, this advantage allows for Daniel Jones to have time to throw and Jonathan Taylor to run wild. Defensively, they will get after Mahomes and stuff KC’s run.