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In our Wild Card Weekend underdog picks, we went 3-1. However, there is a caveat to that. When we made the Bills-Jaguars pick, it was when Buffalo was favored. So, we took the Jags getting 0.5 points in the first half. We would’ve won that if Cam Little nailed his field goat at the end of the second quarter.
Yet, our caveat was that if Buffalo became the underdog before kickoff, then take Buffalo to win the game outright. Well, the Bills were the underdogs by Sunday, January 11, and they did win outright. So, if you waited patiently and went with our underdog parlay including Buffalo’s moneyline, then you would’ve won roughly $1300.
Joining the Bills on our underdog picks last weekend, were the Panthers (+10.5), the 49ers (+4.5), and the Bears winning outright.
This weekend, we like all four underdogs to win or cover their spreads. These lines could shift by Saturday, so NFL bettors should lock in their bets if you feel the way we do about these underdogs.
As we inch closer to Super Bowl 60, the Divisional Round has provided us with some appealing lines. Our NFL picks for this weekend’s underdogs include rolling with Josh “superman” Allen, taking the Bears to cover at home, picking Houston to cover, and for the 49ers to nail their spread, as well.
With that said, we’re high on our Divisional Round underdog picks and feel that these selections have lines that the sportsbooks missed the mark on. So, let’s swoop in and clean up on this betting value.
NFL Divisional Round Underdog Picks
| Team | Spread | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | +1 | -110 |
| San Francisco 49ers | +7.5 | +280 |
| Houston Texans | +3 | +150 |
| Chicago Bears | +3.5 | +165 |
Over the last few months weeks, we’ve gone 30-14 with our Underdog picks: Week 9 (3-1), Week 10 (4-0), Week 11 (2-2), Week 12 (2-2), and Week 13 (3-1), Week 14 (3-1), Week 15 (2-2), Week 16 (3-1), Week 17 (2-2), Week 18 (3-1), and Wild Card Weekend* (3-1, 4-0).
Although the early bettors didn’t hit our four-leg Underdog parlay card last week, we’re still nailing these dogs at an impressive clip as the Playoffs wind down.
This week, three of the underdog NFL teams are on the road for the Divisional Round. All three have a shot at covering their spreads. In fact, both Buffalo and Houston have a real chance at winning their games outright. While the 49ers should keep the game close after an inspiring win last weekend.
The only home underdog this week is the Chicago Bears, and we like their chances to cover the spread against a Rams defense that gave up 31 points to Carolina.
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NFL Underdog Picks For The Divisional Round
Check out our best NFL underdogs this week:
Buffalo Bills +1 (-110) vs. Denver Broncos
After a big road victory in Jacksonville, the Buffalo Bills (13-5) are trying to duplicate that success by heading into Denver to take down the AFC’s no.1 Broncos.
Denver (14-3) is 8-1 SU at home this year but that one loss was a blowout defeat against the Jaguars by the score of 34-20. Additionally, they were struggling against the Packers at home before Green Bay suffered significant injuries in that matchup.
Buffalo might be only 5-3 SU on the road this year, but that doesn’t include their big win last weekend and this team has one major advantage over Denver – Josh Allen.
Allen had to do just about everything against the Jags due to their no.1 run defense that took away James Cook. The star QB finished with a superman stat sheet going 28-for-35 with one TD pass and 273 passing yards. He also added two touchdowns rushing. Furthermore, Allen finished with a 108.7 QB rating and an 80% completion rate.
No. 17 will need to duplicate that performance this weekend to beat the Broncos who have a great defense and the no.1 pass rush. Buffalo struggled at times against aggressive pass rushes. Yet, we saw last weekend at the Jags that the Bills were willing to run more formations to emphasize protection over four and five-wide formations.
Buffalo’s two-tight end formations will overpower Denver, just like they did to Jacksonville. Look for the Buffalo running backs to be more involved with passing game, as well. Allen showed he’s willing to check down and pick up yards. Quick passes will negate a great pass rush.
Another big reason why I like the Bills this weekend is the fact that Denver’s offense isn’t as prolific as the Jaguars’ offense was. Denver ranks 15th against the run (118.7 ypg) and 11th against the pass (223.9 ypg). The Bills showcased their no.1 pass defense last weekend against Jacksonville. Additionally, an average rush attack shouldn’t exploit Buffalo’s inferior run defense.
Head-to-head, the Bills have gone 4-1 SU and 8-1 ATS versus the Broncos. Furthermore, they’ve gone 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Denver.
The Broncos are 1-7 ATS in their last eight Saturday games, 2-4 ATS in their last six overall games, and just 3-4 ATS as the favorite at home.
Give me Josh “superman” Allen and this veteran-led Bills team to win at Denver.
San Francisco 49ers +7.5 (-110) vs. Seattle Seahawks
Let me start by saying that I believe the Seattle Seahawks (14-3) will win this game. However, I see it being a one-score affair and the San Francisco 49ers (13-5) playing a competitive, spirited game.
These two teams split their season series with the 49ers winning at Seattle in Week 1 and the Seahawks winning at San Francisco in Week 18 to clinch the NFC West division and the no.1 seed in the conference.
The 49ers will be without George Kittle which is the biggest reason why I think they lose this game. These division rivals play each other tough and, in the last three meetings, the Seahawks have outscored the 49ers 15.33 ppg to 12.33 ppg.
Furthermore, the 49ers are 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS in their last nine games against the Seahawks. Additionally, they’ve gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games at Seattle, are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games overall, and 7-1 ATS in their last eight overall games this season.
While Seattle has kept Christian McCaffrey from success on the ground, CMC is still totaling over 100 all-purpose yards per game this season versus the Seahawks. I see the 49ers getting him heavily involved in the passing game to slow down this Seattle pass rush and blitz schemes.
Despite being the more talented team, Seattle was held to just 13 points in the Week 18 meeting against the 49ers. With how well their defense played in Philly, holding the Eagles to just 19 points, I do think that San Francisco can keep this game within a touchdown.
Houston Texans +3 (-110) vs. New England Patriots
New England’s (15-3) offense didn’t look good against the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card Round. Their defense was the key to victory as the Chargers’ offensive line was no match for the Patriots’ defensive line and pass rush.
This weekend will be a different story as the Houston Texans (13-5) have the clear-cut better defense that scored two touchdowns in their Wild Card win over the Steelers and held Pittsburgh to just six points on the road.
The Patriots average 28.1 ppg (5th) but face the no.1 scoring defense (16.7 ppg) and yardage (273.3 ypg), no.4 against the run (92.0 ypg), and no.5 against the pass (181.3 ypg).
Where I see Houston having success is forcing the Patriots to throw more, which plays into their strength. Houston has the no.7 sack rate, while New England gives up the sixth most sacks. Hunter and Anderson are going to wreak havoc on this Patriots o-line.
Additionally, this Houston secondary can play man-to-man and take away this New England receiving core. I don’t see the Patriots finding the passing success that they’re accustomed to.
Instead, look for the Texans defense to make this a defensive game and CJ Stroud to make more plays than Drake Maye.
While I think Houston can win this game, taking the three points is a smart choice. The Texans are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against the Patriots, 4-1 ATS in their last five January games and 6-2 ATS in their last eight overall games. New England is 0-2 ATS with the rest advantage and just 5-4-1 ATS at home this season.
I’m taking this Super Bowl caliber defense to lead Houston to a victory.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Chicago Bears +3.5 (-110)
The Los Angeles Rams (13-5) are coming off a hard-fought 34-31 win against the Panthers in the Wild Card Round. The Chicago Bears (12-6) are coming off a thrilling win over their bitter rivals – Green Bay Packers.
I like Chicago to cover this spread because they have a better offense than the Panthers do, and Carolina put up 31 points. In fact, Carolina had a lead late in the game and were close to winning this Playoff contest.
Sure, LA has the more prolific offense, but their defense has been questionable at times. And, I see Chicago building off of the success that Carolina had. While I give the edge and win to Los Angeles for this Divisional Round game, I do think Chicago can cover this spread.
The Rams defense allowed 333 total yards to the Panthers including 264 passing yards to Bryce Young. Let’s also not forget that they allowed 345 total yards to the Falcons in Week 17, which saw Bijan Robinson rush for 195 yards. And that they allowed 415 total yards to the Seahawks in Week 16 including 100 rushing yards to Kenneth Walker.
Chicago has the no.3 rushing attack at 141.3 ypg and I see them taking advantage of an inconsistent run defense for LA. Yet, Caleb Williams should also find success through the air. If Young can put up 264 yards against the Rams, then Williams should be able to best that mark.
The Bears have the no.8 passing attack at 232.1 ypg. Additionally, they give up the third fewest sacks in the NFL, which means that Williams should have more time to find the open man. And, the Bears are tied for the best turnover margin at +1.1 per game as they only give up the ball 0.7 times per game, while forcing 1.8 turnovers per game.
Chicago has a real chance to win this game at home. Yet, taking the points is the safe play here. The Rams are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games at Chicago.
NFL Underdog Parlay
- Buffalo Bills +1 (-110)
- San Francisco 49ers +7.5 (-110)
- Houston Texans +3 (-110)
- Chicago Bears +3.5 (-110)
Buffalo will have the best player on the field and the experience advantage over the no.1 Broncos. The 49ers should keep this game versus the Seahawks a one-score affair due to how well they matchup with their rival.
The Texans have a Super Bowl-caliber defense that will match up well against the Patriots. Houston should cover and win because of the defense. And, if the Panthers can keep the game within 3 points with the Rams, then the Bears should cover 3.5 points and flirt with the victory.
Underdog parlays are risky bets, but this one has some real juice that we think has a serious shot at hitting. If you lay $100 on this four-leg parlay at the top online betting sites, then you would win $1,228. That’s a 12x on your initial investment.
I don’t know about you, but a small flier on this four-leg parlay seems like a great addition to your NFL Divisional Round card. Also, if you want more exciting parlay action, then check out our best NFL parlays of the week and our best College Football parlays of the week.
Best NFL Underdog Picks For The Divisional Round
The Houston Texans are my top underdog pick for the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs. It all starts with Houston’s pass rush as they rank 7th in the NFL but are far more elite than that number. The Patriots allow the 6th most sacks in the league. Maye was one of the top sacked QBs in the NFL this year.
Houston’s secondary will limit Maye and this top-tier passing attack, while Stroud and the Texans offense should find more success. Taking the points is the safe play, but the Texans should win this game outright.
