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In Week 14, we were a half point away from going 4-0 with our Underdog picks and nailing a massive four-leg parlay that would’ve paid out over $1,200 per every $100 wagered. Instead, the Chicago Bears couldn’t cover the 6.5-point spread and we ended up finishing a respectable 3-1 with our picks.
The Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5), Pittsburgh Steelers (+6) and Houston Texans (+3.5) all covered their spreads on the road. In fact, the Steelers and Texans won outright. We were all over Pittsburgh bouncing back after their Week 13 disaster to take down the Ravens.
With that said, we do have a handful of NFL picks for Week 15 that we are really high on. We feel that most of these selections have lines that the sportsbooks missed the mark on. And, that’s where we swoop in and try to maximize the perceived betting value.
NFL Week 15 Underdog Picks
| Team | Spread | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | +4.5 | +190 |
| Detroit Lions | +5.5 | +225 |
| Denver Broncos | +2.5 | +120 |
| Miami Dolphins | +3.5 | +155 |
Over the last six weeks, we’ve gone 17-7 with our Underdog picks: Week 9 (3-1), Week 10 (4-0), Week 11 (2-2), Week 12 (2-2), and Week 13 (3-1), Week 14 (3-1). So, even though we didn’t hit our four-leg Underdog parlay card last week, we’re still nailing these dogs at an impressive clip as the regular season quickly wraps up.
This week, all of our underdog NFL teams have appealing spreads that we’re targeting. Additionally, all four teams are fighting for their Playoff lives. Three of these Underdogs are playing on the road with heavy postseason implications on the line. The one home underdog is fighting for the no.1 seed in the AFC.
Of course, I am just one voice here at Scores and Stats. We have a bunch of terrific NFL betting experts, as well as elite offerings. You can test it all out for free via our sports handicapping service.
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NFL Underdog Picks For Week 15
Check out our best NFL underdogs this week:
Los Angeles Chargers (+4.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
These two AFC West rivals come into their Week 15 matchup heading in different directions. The Los Angeles Chargers are 4-1 SU in their last five games, while the Kansas City Chiefs are 1-4 SU in their last five.
These longtime rivals have played against each other 131 times and it’s the Chiefs that lead the series with a 71-59-1 record. Furthermore, the Chiefs are 7-1 SU in the last eight head-to-head meetings. However, the one loss came in the opening week of the season when the Chargers won in Brazil.
Additionally, the Under is 4-1 in the last five head-to-head games that have taken place at Kansas City. Additionally, the Under is 4-1 in the last five overall meetings between these rivals.
I like the Chargers to cover this spread due to how well they are playing as this team is getting healthy at the right time. Hampton returned from injury and has formed a lethal backfield with Vidal. Additionally, Herbert’s handing injury didn’t prevent him from playing against the Eagles last week where he performed well enough to help this team win.
The Chargers are 4-2 ATS in their last six games. Additionally, they’re 8-0 ATS in their last eight divisional games, which includes all four AFC West matchups this season to date.
The Chiefs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games, which they’re lucky to have not lost all of them. They’re also 1-5 ATS in their last six AFC games and 1-7 ATS in their last eight divisional matchups.
In their Week 1 matchup, the Chargers won 27-21 and put up 394 total yards against a Top 10 defense. They went 7-for-13 on third downs, had the time of possession advantage, committed zero turnovers, and outplayed the Chiefs with their defense.
Herbert threw for over 300 yards against KC and has been on a tear this season. The Chargers have enough passing weapons to threaten the upset win in KC this weekend. However, we’ll play it safe and take the 4.5 points instead.
Detroit Lions (+5.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams
After a shocking loss at Carolina in Week 13, the Los Angeles Rams bounced back to crush the Cardinals last weekend by the score of 45-17. This Rams team is on a roll and sit on top of the NFC West division with the tie breaker over Seattle who has an identical 10-3 record.
The Detroit Lions have alternated between wins and losses over the last few months and find themselves 1.5 games back of the Packers in the NFC North. Additionally, they lost both games against Green Bay and seem destined to fight for one of the NFC Wild Cards, which makes this weekend’s matchup “must-win territory” for the Lions.
These two teams have played against each other 89 times and the Rams hold a slight lead with a 45-43-1 series record. However, the Lions have won five of the last eight meetings, which includes two victories in a row.
The Lions beat the Rams in last year’s season opener, along with a Wild Card victory in January 2024. However, Detroit won both of those games at home.
On the road, in this series, the Lions are a pathetic 1-6 SU in the last seven meetings at the Rams. Additionally, the Under is 5-1 in the last six head-to-head meetings.
I was very high on the Rams coming into the 2025-26 NFL season as I picked them to win the NFC West ahead of the 49ers, Seahawks and Cardinals:
“Not only do I see the Rams making the Playoffs once again, I also see this team as being the best in the NFC West. I love the young defense and I see that unit taking a leap forward this year.
Offensively, the addition of Davante Adams at receiver makes this unit lethal. They can throw and run the ball, have two top-tier receivers, and are led by a veteran QB and coach that have won a Super Bowl already. The only question is what seed this team will finish as in the NFC.”
Currently, the Rams hold the no.1 seed in the NFC and have a real shot at remaining in the Top 2 once the season is done. I do think LA will win this Week 15 game, but I don’t see the Rams covering a 5.5-point spread against this talented Detroit team.
The Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last five games this season and 2-1 ATS in their last three meetings against the Rams.
Los Angeles gives up 211.5 passing ypg and the Lions have the no.5 passing attack that averages 242.8 ypg. Let’s not forget how explosive this Detroit backfield is with Gibbs. They’re no.5 in rushing at 135.8 ypg. While I think Detroit has a small chance of winning outright, I feel more comfortable taking the points instead.
Green Bay Packers vs. Denver Broncos (+2.5)
The Denver Broncos come into this game as the 2.5-point home underdog despite having won 10 games in a row and currently sitting in the top spot of the AFC. And, while the Green Bay Packers hold the no.2 seed in the NFC, it’s surprising that the sportsbooks feel Denver is the underdog.
Yet, that’s fine with us because we are big believers in that Denver defense. If there’s one defensive unit that’s better than Green Bay’s, it’s the Broncos with Patrick Surtain II in the lineup.
While Green Bay is 4-2 SU and 4-2 ATS in their last six meetings versus the Broncos, it’s Denver that holds the 8-7-1 series advantage, which includes winning Super Bowl 32 with John Elway.
And, if you ask Denver fans, they would say that Bo Nix is the second-coming of Elway. He’s shown zero signs of a sophomore slump. In fact, he’s playing at a high level and continues to find ways to win games for the Broncos.
Not only do I think that Denver will cover the 2.5 points, but I also think they will win this game outright. The Broncos are 7-1 SU in their last eight home games versus the Packers. Furthermore, Denver has won 11 consecutive games at home and are 7-3 ATS in their last nine NFC games.
All the praises that we heap onto the Green Bay defense, must be added to the Broncos defense, as well. In fact, add a little more because Denver is slightly better in most defensive categories like points allowed, yards allowed, 3rd down conversions, rushing yards allowed, and sack rate.
While these teams are close to even on paper, it will be the Denver fans that make the difference. The environment will feel like a Playoff game, which should benefit the Broncos’ defense the most. And, other than Houston, I don’t see a better defense in the NFL.
Look for Denver to harass Jordan Love all game long and stuff Josh Jacobs, while Bo Nix and RJ Harvey make enough plays to win this game.
Miami Dolphins (+3.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
After 29 all-time meetings between these AFC teams, it’s the Pittsburgh Steelers that hold a slight 15-14 series lead. However, it’s the Miami Dolphins that have won three of the last five head-to-head meetings, which took place from 2013 to 2022.
Pittsburgh is 2-4 in their last five games, having lost to the Bills, Bears and Chargers. Their two wins were against the Bengals and the Ravens.
Miami has won four games in a row since a TNF dud on Halloween Eve. Those wins came against Buffalo, Washington, New Orleans, and the Jets last weekend by the score of 34-10.
The Dolphins are finding some momentum on both sides of the field, which has put them in the Wild Card hunt. And, you have to give them credit since they started off the season 2-7 and everyone calling for their head coach to be fired.
This game is important for both teams’ chances of making the Playoffs, which is going to add more pressure and excitement to Monday Night Football.
The Dolphins are 6-7 and the Steelers are 7-6. So, if Miami wins then they would hold the tie-breaker over the Steelers which would be huge if Pittsburgh can’t win the AFC North.
While I called the Steelers win last weekend, I’m not as bold as to call a Miami upset victory. Yet, I am calling for the Dolphins to cover the 3.5 points and have a shot to win in the end.
The Dolphins are 4-2 ATS and 5-1 SU in their last six games, along with going 4-2 ATS in their last six versus the Steelers.
Where I like Miami’s chances, is running the ball. The Dolphins are 8th in the league for rushing (126.5 ypg), while the Steelers allow 125.3 ypg. If Miami can establish the run, then they open up the play-action and also keep the Pittsburgh pass rush off balanced.
Defensively, the Dolphins are 10th in sack rate, which could cause problems for Aaron Rodgers and that Steelers’ offensive line. Additionally, Miami will need to shore up their run defense that sits 25th in the NFL as of Week 15.
NFL Underdog Parlay
- Los Angeles Chargers +4.5 (-110)
- Detroit Lions +5.5 (-110)
- Denver Broncos +2.5 (-110)
- Miami Dolphins +3.5 (-110)
The Chargers, Lions, and Dolphins are all on the road this weekend and playing in games that could decide their postseason futures. The Broncos are hosting the Packers in a massive game that will impact the top seeds in both conferences.
With that said, I like all four teams to cover their spreads with the Chargers, Broncos, and Dolphins threatening outright victories.
Underdog parlays are risky bets, but this one has some real juice that we think has a serious shot at hitting. If you lay $100 on this four-leg parlay at the top online betting sites, then you would win $1228. That’s a 12x on your initial investment.
I don’t know about you, but a small flier on this four-leg parlay seems like a great addition to your Week 14 NFL card. Also, if you want more exciting parlay action, then check out our best NFL parlays of the week and our best College Football parlays for Week 15.
Best NFL Underdog Picks For Week 15
My favorite Underdog pick for Week 15 is the Denver Broncos at home against the Packers. While Green Bay is the no.2 seed in the NFC and leading the NFC North with arguably the best defense in that conference, Denver has the better defense in my opinion due to the reigning NFL Defensive MVP Patrick Surtain II.
Everything we say about Green Bay’s defense, we can also say about Denver but with a little extra praise due to the Broncos hold advantages in most major defensive categories over the Packers.
Furthermore, Denver will be at home where they have won 11 games in a row. And, let’s not forget, the Broncos are riding a 10-game winning streak into this massive matchup and hold a 7-1 SU record against the Packers at Denver.
