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In Week 16, we ended up going 3-1 with our underdogs. The Colts not only let their fanbase down by getting eliminated from postseason contention but they also let us down with a three-touchdown defeat. Nobody saw that NFL result coming.
However, we looked like geniuses after rolling with the Chargers, Patriots and Bears in their respective matchups last weekend.
For the penultimate week of the regular season, the Panthers (+7), Bears (+3), Texans (+2) and Browns (+3.5) are highly capable of not only winning their games in upset fashion, but definitely able to cover their respective spreads.
With that said, we’re high on our NFL picks for Week 17 and feel that these selections have lines that the sportsbooks missed the mark on. And, that’s where we swoop in and try to maximize the perceived betting value.
NFL Week 17 Underdog Picks
| Team | Spread | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|
| Carolina Panthers | +7 | +275 |
| Chicago Bears | +3 | +145 |
| Houston Texans | +2 | +110 |
| Cleveland Browns | +3.5 | +160 |
Over the last eight weeks, we’ve gone 22-10 with our Underdog picks: Week 9 (3-1), Week 10 (4-0), Week 11 (2-2), Week 12 (2-2), and Week 13 (3-1), Week 14 (3-1), Week 15 (2-2), and Week 16 (3-1). So, even though we didn’t hit our four-leg Underdog parlay card last week, we’re still nailing these dogs at an impressive clip as the regular season quickly closes out.
This week, all of our underdog NFL teams have appealing spreads that we’re targeting. Additionally, three of the four teams are fighting for their Playoff lives (Panthers, Bears and Texans). Two of these Underdogs are playing at home (Panthers, Browns), which gives us more confidence.
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NFL Underdog Picks For Week 17
Check out our best NFL underdogs this week:
Seattle Seahawks vs. Carolina Panthers (+7)
The Seattle Seahawks have owned this head-to-head series in recent years going 5-1 SU against the Carolina Panthers. While the Seahawks are the better team on paper and on the field, Carolina is also talented enough to be in the position of leading the NFC South and fighting for a Playoff spot with two weeks left.
While I believe that Seattle will win this game, as they’ve gone 6-1 SU on the road this year, I do think Carolina can keep it within a touchdown considering they’re a better team at home.
The Panthers are 5-2 SU at home this season and 5-1 SU as a home underdog. Furthermore, they’ve gone 8-4 ATS as the underdog and 5-1 ATS as the home underdog this season. Adding to this is the fact that Carolina is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 NFC matchups.
I think Seattle gets out to a lead but garbage time points will allow a backdoor cover for Carolina. Keep in mind, this team beat the Rams at home and showed a resiliency in that game.
Look for the Panthers to lean on Dowdle and Hubbard against the no.3 run defense in Seattle. However, I see Carolina using them out of the backfield as receivers, as well. Bryce Young will have to make plays with his legs to extend drives and possibly even score in the red zone.
Carolina needs to play a perfect game to win, but only a near-perfect game to cover.
Chicago Bears (+3) vs. San Francisco 49ers
This SNF matchup is the biggest game in the NFC for Week 17. It not only has a dramatic impact on each team’s respective division but it also affects the no.1 seed for the conference, as well. Each team has been red-hot over the last month or two, as San Francisco has won five in a row and Chicago has won seven of their last eight games.
The Bears are a win away from locking up the NFC North. The 49ers are still a game behind the Seahawks for the NFC West title. Yet, both teams are a game back of the Seahawks for the NFC’s top spot. So, the winner of this game could have a real shot at the conference going through their home stadium for the Playoffs.
You have to like what the 49ers did on MNF against the Colts. They went into Indy and crushed the Rivers-led Colts by three touchdowns. The offense was a juggernaut and the defense played a great game.
Now, San Francisco returns home to face a dangerous Chicago team that’s playing with a ton of confidence on both sides of the ball
The Bears have not had much success against the 49ers in recent years, but they matchup really well with San Francisco for this game.
Surprisingly, the 49ers are no.8 against the run and bottled up Indy’s Jonathan Taylor last week. However, Chicago has the no.2 rushing offense at 151.7 ypg and I see them finding success against the 49ers with their rushing duo.
San Francisco is 23rd against the pass as they allow 229.3 ypg. Indy’s old-man Rivers was carving up the defense at times. Caleb Williams should find success this weekend especially since San Francisco has the lowest sack rate in the NFL.
While I believe Chicago has a real shot at winning this game, the smart play is to take the Bears to cover the three points. They’re 10-5 ATS this season, 7-3 ATS after a win, 5-1 ATS in their last six games, and 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games.
The 49ers are 2-3-1 ATS at home this season, 1-2-1 ATS as the home favorite, and just 4-5-1 ATS following a win. Take the Bears to cover.
Houston Texans (+2) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Outside of the Bears vs. 49ers and Eagles vs. Bills, this is the best game of Week 17. It has a huge impact on the AFC Wild Card race and for each team’s chances of competing for their respective divisional crown.
The Houston Texans are 10-5 and sit in 7th place for the AFC Playoff standings. They’re one game back of the 11-5 Los Angeles Chargers and Buffalo Bills. LA is the 5th seed as of this writing and a game back of the Broncos in the AFC West. Houston is a game back of the Jaguars in the AFC North.
Considering that LA has already clinched a Playoff spot, this game has more on the line for the Texans who are trying to get in. And, let’s not forget how Houston crushed Los Angeles 32-12 in the Playoffs last season.
The Texans come in having won seven games in a row, while the Chargers have scored four straight victories. Both teams beat the Chiefs over that span, but the LA also defeated the Eagles and a desperate Dallas team. The Texans also beat the Colts, Bills and Jaguars over that winning streak.
With that said, I really like Houston in this matchup. And, that’s due to their defense. The Texans have the best defense in the league. And, while LA has a Top 10 unit as well, Houston’s is a notch better in every major category. Let that sink in!
They key to this game will be the pass rush for Houston. The Texans are 7th in the NFL with an 8.01% sack rate. The Chargers allow the 5th highest sack rate. LA turns the ball over at 1.2 giveaways per game, while Houston forces 1.7 turnovers per game which is the 3rd highest mark in the NFL.
One more important defensive metric that needs to be in the spotlight is that Houston has the no.3 defense on third downs. The Chargers are no.6 in this metric. So, whichever team has more success in forcing three-and-outs should win this game. For me, that equates to Houston.
The Texans have enough firepower on offense to match what the Chargers can roll out. Yet, Houston’s defense will be the difference maker in this matchup just like they were in the Playoffs last season.
The Texans are the scariest team in the NFL right now and this defense can lead them to a Super Bowl. Look for Houston to not only cover this spread but to win the game outright. The Texans are 5-1 ATS in their last five games, 6-2 ATS in their last eight Saturday games, and 6-0 SU in their last six AFC matchups.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns (+3.5)
This AFC North clash features the division-leading Pittsburgh Steelers against the bottom dwelling Cleveland Browns. Yet, this rivalry is a sneaky one that NFL bettors should pay attention to.
Last week, the Browns lost by three points at home against the Buffalo Bills. I think this 3.5-point spread is one that they can cover. In fact, they can challenge the Steelers for the victory, as well.
Cleveland is 5-1 SU in their last six home games versus the Steelers. Furthermore, the Browns are 4-1 ATS as the home underdog, while the Steelers are just 3-4 ATS in away games and 1-2 ATS as the away favorite this season. Lastly, the Browns are 5-2 ATS at home this season.
Another reason why I think that Cleveland has a solid chance of covering the points is the fact that Pittsburgh will be without DK Metcalf for their final two games of the season. Metcalf was suspended for a fan altercation last week in Detroit. Who will Aaron Rodgers throw the ball to?
Cleveland has the no.1 pass defense in the NFL, which also includes the top mark for sack rate. Both teams give up the same number of points, as well.
One area that will be key to this game, which was the case last week against Buffalo, is Cleveland’s advantage on third downs. The Steelers give up the 8th highest third-down conversions at 40.74%.
Pittsburgh also allows the third highest passing yards in the NFL at 250.5 ypg. So, look for Shedeur Sanders to find success throwing the ball against this awful pass defense. And, look for Cleveland’s pass rush with Myles Garrett to get after Aaron Rodgers who has nobody to throw the ball to.
I’m taking Cleveland to cover the points at home. And I am putting the Steelers on upset alert.
NFL Underdog Parlay
- Carolina Panthers +7 (-105)
- Chicago Bears +3 (-110)
- Houston Texans +2 (-110)
- Cleveland Browns +3.5 (-110)
The Panthers and Browns are at home and play teams that have more talent on both sides of the ball. However, the home-field advantage along with some key in-game matchups give these two teams a real shot at covering the points.
The Bears at 49ers will be a great game and one that Chicago has a shot at winning outright. The Texans at Chargers will also be a competitive matchup that I believe Houston wins due to their defense.
Underdog parlays are risky bets, but this one has some real juice that we think has a serious shot at hitting. If you lay $100 on this four-leg parlay at the top online betting sites, then you would win $1,258.47. That’s almost a 13x on your initial investment.
I don’t know about you, but a small flier on this four-leg parlay seems like a great addition to your Week 17 NFL card. Also, if you want more exciting parlay action, then check out our best NFL parlays of the week and our best College Football parlays for the week.
Best NFL Underdog Picks For Week 17
I love the Houston Texans in this spot. I think they win this game outright, as Houston matches up really well with the Los Angeles Chargers.
LA will want to establish the run to keep the heat off of Herbert but that’s not going to work. Houston has the no.4 run defense along with the no.5 pass defense. Furthermore, they’re 7th in sack rate, while the Chargers give up the 5th highest sack rate.
Houston forces the third highest turnover margin in the NFL and has the third best mark in three-and-outs. The Texans have a Championship caliber defense and that will show up this Saturday in a huge AFC clash.
