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The road to Super Bowl 60 officially begins on Saturday, January 10, and we’ve identified a handful of underdog picks for the opening weekend of the Playoffs. Before we lay these NFL picks out for you, let’s recap our underdog selections from last weekend.
In Week 18, our underdogs went 3-1 as the Carolina Panthers and Pittsburgh Steelers covered their one-score spreads. The Detroit Lions won outright against Chicago, as we predicted. Unfortunately, the San Francisco 49ers’ winning streak came to a halt and stopped us from winning over $1,500 on our underdog parlay ticket.
With that said, we’re high on our Wild Card Weekend underdog picks and feel that these selections have lines that the sportsbooks missed the mark on. So, let’s swoop in and clean up on this betting value.
This week’s underdog selections include the Panthers covering a double-digit spread at home, the Bears winning at home over their bitter rival, a San Fransico covering of the spread, and the Jaguars to get out to a quick start against Buffalo.
NFL Wild Card Weekend Underdog Picks
| Team | Spread | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|
| Carolina Panthers | +10.5 | +450 |
| San Francisco 49ers | +4.5 | +190 |
| Chicago Bears | +1 | +100 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars 1st Half | +0.5 | -130 |
Over the last 10 weeks, we’ve gone 27-13 with our Underdog picks: Week 9 (3-1), Week 10 (4-0), Week 11 (2-2), Week 12 (2-2), and Week 13 (3-1), Week 14 (3-1), Week 15 (2-2), Week 16 (3-1), Week 17 (2-2), and Week 18 (3-1).
Although we didn’t hit our four-leg Underdog parlay card last week, we’re still nailing these dogs at an impressive clip as the regular season closes out.
This week, three of underdog NFL teams are a hosting a Wild Card Playoff game. Pay close attention to our selection of Jacksonville getting points in the first half of their game against the Bills.
Also, Carolina is a double-digit underdog at home, despite the fact that they beat the Rams in a head-to-head matchup this season. Additionally, the Bears are hosting the Packers in a thrilling rivalry game but getting points.
Last, but not least, the 49ers will look to avenge a 2022 NFC Championship game loss to these Philadelphia Eagles. This time, Brock Purdy is healthy. But can their defense hold up?
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NFL Underdog Picks For Wild Card Weekend
Check out our best NFL underdogs this week:
Los Angeles Rams vs. Carolina Panthers (+10.5)
Both teams come into this matchup having lost more than they’ve won in recent weeks. The Los Angeles Rams (12-5) have dropped two of their last three games, while the Carolina Panthers (8-9) have lost three of their last four matchups.
For the Panthers, they lost two games in a row, and slid through the backdoor into the Playoffs by winning the NFC South due to a better division record. Yet, they had to wait until the Falcons beat the Saints later in Week 18 to get in.
The Rams closed out the season with a 37-20 win over the Cardinals and Matthew Stafford most likely cemented his MVP Award with that performance. The question now centers on whether or not the Panthers can pull off a second upset against the Rams.
In their Nov. 30 matchup, the Panthers were a 10-point underdog and they won by the score of 31-28.
Surprisingly, the Rams are just 3-7 SU in their last 10 games against the Panthers. Furthermore, LA is just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games at Carolina.
After a loss, the Panthers are 6-2 SU and a perfect 8-0 ATS. I think Carolina can keep this game within 11 points but I’m not crazy enough to think that they can win the Playoff contest.
Carolina is 9-5 ATS as an underdog, 8-4 ATS in Conference games, and 5-2 ATS as a home underdog this season.
I’m taking the Panthers and the points as they will establish a run a find modest success in their play-action passing game. If their defense can find some stops along the way, then Carolina could threaten the Rams. Or, this could be a huge blowout win for LA. That’s why this is called gambling, folks.
San Francisco 49ers (+4.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The San Francisco 49ers (12-5) actually finished with a better record than the NFC East champion Philadelphia Eagles (11-6). And, let’s not pretend that this is the same Philly team that we saw march to a Super Bowl win one year ago.
These Eagles are flawed on both sides of the ball. However, they have showed improvements over the end of the season. Yet, so have the 49ers who won six of seven games and have become an offensive juggernaut along the way. Well, that was until their Week 18 clunker at home against Seattle.
That loss is why we’re sitting with San Francisco getting 4.5 points on the road. And, I like that number as it puts above the field goal mark and the common four-point finish.
I think the 49ers can take advantage of an inconsistent Philly defense by running the ball with Christian McCaffrey and utilizing an efficient passing game. The Eagles allow 124.4 ypg on the ground, which bodes well for McCaffrey.
Philly’s defense was stout against the pass this year, but they’re only 15th in sack rate. This bodes well for a 49ers offensive line that gave up the 4th lowest sack rate in the NFL. So, Brock Purdy should have time to throw the ball. Hopefully, all of his receivers will be healthy.
The Eagles are 4-8 ATS in their last 12 home games against the 49ers. They’re only 2-3 ATS following a loss and 8-7 ATS as the favorite. More specifically, Philly is 4-4 ATS as a home favorite this year.
San Francisco is 7-2 SU and 7-2 ATS in road games this year. They’re 4-1 ATS in their last five road games and 6-1 ATS in their last seven overall games. Additionally, the 49ers are 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS following a loss this season.
Give me the 49ers and the points.
Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears (+100)
The Green Bay Packers (9-7-1) come into this Playoff game having lost four contests in a row. While they rested their players in Week 18, that doesn’t excuse the losses to the Ravens, Bears and Broncos prior to that.
Chicago (11-6) enter this matchup having lost two games in a row. Like the Packers, they rested some key players in their final regular season matchup.
These two teams split their regular season meetings with the Packers winning 28-21 at home and the Bears winning 22-16 at home just two weeks later. Now, they will play for a third time in roughly five calendar weeks.
Green Bay has dominated this rivalry in the past, but this is a different Chicago team. And that stadium will be rocking as the Bears try to beat their oldest rival for a second time in a month.
Without Micah Parsons, I believe that this Green Bay defense is suspect. They will be ripe for Chicago’s run game that finished 3rd in the NFL at 144.2 ypg. Let’s not forget that two weeks ago, that the Ravens racked up over 300 rushing yards in Green Bay.
The Packers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games, 1-4 ATS in their last five games, and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 NFC matchups. Chicago is 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games and 8-2 ATS with equal rest.
I’m taking Da Bears to win at home over their hated rival and continue their exciting turnaround with another Playoff game.
Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars First Half (+0.5)
Let’s focus this pick on just first-half stats and not the pick for this game. However, if Buffalo ends up as the underdog by kickoff, then jump on the Bills to win.
As for the first-half, Buffalo has averaged 12.4 ppg and the Jaguars have averaged 14.9 ppg. Furthermore, Jacksonville has scored 18.3 ppg in the first half over the last three games, compared to 13.7 ppg for the Bills.
Furthermore, the Jagas average 5.6 ppg in the first quarter, while Buffalo averages 5.0 ppg. A bigger difference can be seen in the second quarter where the Bills average 7.5 ppg and the Jaguars average 9.2 ppg.
This year, Buffalo has established themselves as a second-half team as they lead the NFL with a 15.9 ppg average.
Buffalo makes key adjustments at halftime to allow this team to overcome first-half deficits and more times than not, they win the game. This weekend, I like for the Jags to get out to an early lead and cover the half-point spread.
Look for Jacksonville’s defense to give Buffalo troubles in the first half before the Bills figure things out at halftime.
NFL Underdog Parlay
- Carolina Panthers +2.5 (-110)
- San Francisco 49ers (+100)
- Detroit Lions (+125)
- Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 (-110)
The Panthers and Lions are on the road but have winnable games under different circumstances. Yet, we’re siding with Carolina’s points since the outcome should be a close matchup against the Bucs for the NFC South title.
The Steelers should cover the points based on their trends like going 7-3 ATS the Ravens in the last 10 meetings and Baltimore going 3-8 ATS versus the AFC this season along with a 2-5 ATS record following a win.
Lastly, the 49ers have been one of the most impressive teams in December. While Seattle is playing like the best team in the NFC, San Francisco’s offense has been a juggernaut. At home, the 49ers seem to have a little extra magic and I like that to lead San Francisco to a win over their rival.
Underdog parlays are risky bets, but this one has some real juice that we think has a serious shot at hitting. If you lay $100 on this four-leg parlay at the top online betting sites, then you would win $1,540. That’s a 15x on your initial investment.
I don’t know about you, but a small flier on this four-leg parlay seems like a great addition to your Week 18 NFL card. Also, if you want more exciting parlay action, then check out our best NFL parlays for Week 18 and our best College Football parlays of the week.
Best NFL Underdog Picks For Week 18
Call me crazy, but the 49ers are my favorite Underdog pick this week. San Francisco has gone 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games versus Seattle. At home, on Saturday, for the division and the no.1 seed sets up perfectly for a massive win by the 49ers and a Hollywood ending to the regular season. I like the trio of Purdy, McCaffrey and Kittle to lead this 49ers team to a huge win.
