The UFC just delivered a gift wrapped banger with UFC 320, and they’re offering up a solid encore with UFC Rio coming this week.

You could easily confuse this with a lineup you’d find at a major UFC PPV event, as we have some huge names and some tense matchups. I expect a ton of fireworks here, but beyond that, I see some really good spots for betting and maximizing your UFC picks.

Be sure to shop around for the best possible UFC Fight Night 261 odds, but before you do, make sure you read my breakdown to see which fighters I like to win each matchup.

Where To Watch UFC Fight Night 261?

The entire UFC Fight Night 261 card (aka UFC on ESPN+ 119) will be shown on ESPN+.

When Is UFC Fight Night 261?

Get ready for UFC on ESPN+ 119, which will hit your TV this Saturday, October 11th, 2025. The Prelims get going at 4:00 pm EST, with the main card scheduled for 7:00 pm EST.

Where Is UFC Fight Night 261?

Want to watch UFC Fight Night 261 live in person? Head to Brazil, as this week’s lineup is tangling at Farmasi Arena in Rio De Janeiro.

UFC Fight Night Main Card Odds

Check out the latest UFC Fight Night odds for the Main Card, courtesy of the top sports betting sites: 

This has the makings of a very strong event, as the main card specifically has a slew of big names. Even though they are not favored to win, it will be fun to watch and bet on the likes of Deiveson Figueiredo, Charles Oliveira, and Lucas Almeida.

There’s even Vicente Luque, who is not a great bet to upset Joel Alvarez, but will still be a threat to shock us all with a finish.

Charles Oliveira and Mateusz Gamrot promise to return killer value to willing bettors, as this fight is priced insanely close. You just need to pick the right side! The same goes for a battle between the undefeated Mario Pinto and Jhonata Diniz – a fight that presently doesn’t even have a clear favorite.

I’ve already listed my top UFC Fight Night 261 picks for the main card, so feel free to bet on any of those fights. I’ll break each bout down a bit further below, but if you need extra advice, don’t forget to confide in the best handicappers online.

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UFC Fight Night 261 Predictions For The Main Card

The main card for UFC Fight Night 261 begins at 10:00 pm EST.

Mateusz Gamrot (-115) vs. Charles Oliveira (-105)

I have a special place in my heart for Charles Oliveira (35-11), as he is a champion through and through and is one of the best finishers we’ve ever seen. He is especially dominant on the mat (21 submissions!) but he can finish fights with his hands (10 KOs) just as well.

It has been rough sledding of late for “do Bronxs”, as he’s just 2-3 over his last five fights and obviously is no longer the champ. It’s worth wondering if that is a reality in the rearview mirror now that he is 35 years of age, but I think he still has the skill-set to give it one last go.

Oliveira has gotten submitted twice in that five-fight stretch, of course, with a KO defeat by the hands of Ilia Topuria being the latest blemish on his record. That said, we know what he’s capable of on the ground, while losses to studs like Topuria, Arman Tsarukyan, and Islam Makhachev are nothing to be ashamed of.

Insert Mateusz Gamrot (25-3), who is not much younger and doesn’t possess the same finishing ability his opponent does. Now, to be fair, Gamrot has never been finished in 28 matches, and he does still bring solid versatility and strong wrestling to the table.

On top of that, Gamrot has shown to be in better form by comparison, going 4-1 over his last five bouts. He hasn’t exactly faced scrubs, either, while his only two losses in the last five years were dropped Decisions to Dan Hooker and Beneil Dariush.

This one is priced close, but it really just means we’re getting Oliveira at an absolute steal. He is the more dangerous finisher, he has a clear edge on the mat, he owns a four-inch reach advantage, and his resume is more impressive across the board. I expect a big bounce-back win for him here and wouldn’t at all be surprised if he made Gamrot tap out.

Bet: Charles Oliveira (-105)

Montel Jackson (-320) vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (+250)

My favorite underdog bet of this slate is Deiveson Figueiredo (24-5-1), who is just too nicely priced to pass up. I realize he’s a pretty big underdog against a good fighter, but Daico can end fights in a hurry with the best of them and I don’t know if I’d place Montel Jackson (15-2) quite on the level of the guys Fig has been losing to.

Figueiredo lost a trilogy clash with Brandon Moreno and really never recovered, adding on understandable losses against tough outs like Pety Yan and Cory Sandhagen. He actually went the distance with Yan, too, while we know from his submission of Cody Garbrandt just last year that the guy is still lethal.

Losing back-to-back fights isn’t ideal and he’s now 37, but I like the idea of throwing caution to the wind and giving Fig a try at +250.

This is a pretty big step up for Jackson. He’s been doing well in the UFC for some time now, but this is without a doubt the most skilled and most dangerous fighter he’s faced yet. He simply doesn’t have the chops to defend himself appropriately on the ground in this spot, and that’s precisely where I think Fig can strike and possibly end this thing early.

It’s a risk, so I’d bet lightly, but Deiveson is a really fun UFC upset pick this week.

Bet: Deiveson Figueiredo (+250)

Joel Alvarez (-550) vs. Vicente Luque (+375)

While I am rolling the dice on Fig this week, I will not be going down a similar path with Vicente Luque. He is another big name with stellar finishing ability and offers a sweet +375 price tag, but his recent form (2-4 over his last six fights) is far more suspect.

The 33-year old is technically still in his physical prime, and we know the versatility and finishing ability is there. That hasn’t been the case very much lately, of course, while each of his last three losses had him being the one who lost early.

Luque is becoming increasingly easier to take out, and that’s bad news when he’s going up against a nasty submission guru like Joel Alvarez (17 submissions!). He’s not as big of a threat to win with his fists, but he has the clear edge in this one and is in a groove with a 6-1 mark over his last seven bouts.

Luque is always going to be a mild threat no matter what the fight is, but this one leans Alvarez in a big way. The price stinks, however, so I’d hammer the submission prop if you can find it.

Bet: Joel Alvarez (-550)

Mario Pinto (-110) vs. Jhonata Diniz (-110)

This is a fun bout, as we get the undefeated Mario Pinto (10-0) fighting in just his second ever UFC bout. He passed the eye test in his debut in March, where he knocked out Austen Lane with one punch. Prior to that he earned his way into the UFC’s good graces by KO-ing Lucas Triverio Camacho in the Contender Series.

Everything looks good for Pinto so far, although the sample size is small and he definitely loses the experience edge to his opponent. He does come in with clear KO power and elite finishing ability, though, as well as a two-inch reach advantage.

On the other side is Jhonata Diniz (9-1) who has an almost identical record, with his only loss being an understandable TKO defeat by the hands of Marcin Tybura. Diniz has otherwise proven to be a solid heavyweight fighter with nice KO ability.

Diniz is more patient and has better pace than Pinto, but the latter offers much better aggressive and more fearful power. In what is priced as a toss-up, I’ll roll with the more exciting prospect who is seven years younger and is capable of ending this thing in a hurry.

Bet: Mario Pinto (-110)

Ricardo Ramos (-190) vs. Kaan Ofli (+160)

I really like Ricardo Ramos to get the win here, as he has an absurd six-inch reach advantage. That is going to be awfully difficult for Kaan Ofli to overcome, and that isn’t even touching on Ramos offering superior striking and better takedown offense.

Ramos (17-7) has suffered some tough losses in his career and his recent form (2-4 over his last six fights) obviously isn’t preferred. However, he’s a versatile mixed martial artist with a huge edge in this one.

Ofli (11-4-1) lacks the same experience and polish of someone like Ramos, while the jump up in competition (0-2 so far inside the UFC) hasn’t gone as planned. I think he’ll continue to struggle here, as the length and experience Ramos has will keep him and his submission chops at bay.

Bet: Ricardo Ramos (-190)

Michael Aswell Jr. (-140) vs. Lucas Almeida (+120)

The last fight of the UFC Fight Night 261 main card has Michael Aswell Jr. (10-3) coming in as a mild betting favorite against Lucas Almeida (15-4).

Almeida is the bigger name with slightly more experience, but he’s also nine years older and may be at a severe disadvantage in the striking department. He does have nine KOs to his name, but it’s worth noting that just one has come in the UFC, where he’s just 2-3 across five fights.

Aswell’s sample size is small, but a Decision loss to Bolaji Oki in his UFC debut isn’t discouraging. He also offers clean defense and a strong chin, as he’s never been finished in 13 bouts. He does lose two inches to Almeida, but I think he is in a strong position to bounce back and earn his first ever UFC win.

Bet: Michael Aswell jr. (-140)

UFC Fight Preliminary Card Odds

Check out the latest UFC Fight Night odds for the Preliminary Card.

The UFC Rio Prelims aren’t quite as inviting as the main card. Fans do still get some solid prospects to monitor, while two of the bouts listed above are nicely priced.

I’m not sure many people will look at the underdogs on this card and be inclined to bet heavily on them, so for the most part you’re looking at a slate with some lopsided odds.

My picks above tell you which way I’m leaning, but you can read on for more insight into each pick, while I’ll finish things off with my top three bets for this week’s event.

UFC Fight Night 261 Predictions For The Preliminary Card

The UFC Fight Night 261 kicks off with the Prelims at 7:00 pm EST.

Clayton Carpenter (-125) vs. Jafel Filho (+105)

Clayton Carpenter (8-1) will aim for a bounce-back win this weekend, as he dropped a Decision his last time out. That was his first professional MMA loss, but his two previous fights under the UFC banner put his submission chops on full display.

Carpenter is a balanced fighter who grades out as the better overall talent in this matchup, although he does lose two inches in reach to Jafel Filho. Filho (16-4) is also way more experienced, but he’s three years older and doesn’t measure up to Carpenter in the striking department.

Filho has been a mixed bag so far in the UFC ranks, too. He lost his last fight and is just 2-2 under the promotion through four fights. One of those losses came via submission, and with both guys being solid at taking the fight to the ground, I don’t see Filho having a clear edge.

You could always chase the +105 price and the fact that Filho has fought in more fights, but Carpenter feels like a screaming value.

Bet: Clayton Carpenter (-125)

Vitor Petrino (-330) vs. Thomas Petersen (+260)

I think you can consider Thomas Petersen (10-3) just because he does have some knockout power (7 KOs) and heavyweight fights don’t take much to end early. However, the logic still points to Vitor Petrino (12-2), who has simply been more impressive at this level.

Petersen has some knockouts, but none of them have come in the UFC. He’s also a middling 2-2 here so far. In addition, he is two years older than Petrino and loses 2.5-inches in reach. Petersen’s only two losses have also come via knockout, which isn’t ever what you want to hear.

Petrino can take advantage of that, as this is not the same class of fighter that he’s been running into lately. I will give you that he’s just 1-2 over his last three fights, but his power has at least shown up at this level, while he’s also exhibited the willingness and ability to end fights via submission.

I don’t think you should fully rule out Peterson thanks to his fun +260 moneyline, but Petrino feels like an easy pick. I do think I’d stick with the ML here, but a KO prop is worth flirting with.

Bet: Vitor Petrino (-330)

Beatriz Mesquita (-525)  vs. Irina Alekseeva (+385)

Next up we have the biggest UFC Rio favorite, as Beatriz Mesquita (5-0) is an undefeated prospect looking to make a name for herself. She really lacks experience for someone who is already 34, but she’s been fantastic so far, with all of her wins coming via stoppage.

Mesquita is at her best when she can dictate the pace and get to her opponent’s back, but in a small sample size she’s exhibited some issues if she stands and throws. Luckily for her, she’s going up against Irina Alekseeva (5-3), a middling talent that is not known for her power.

This doesn’t feel like a very dangerous spot for Mesquita, who should be able to handle Irina’s striking and either work the fight to the ground or simply get to her back and submit her. One way or another, Beatriz is a great bet to win and I love her odds of scoring a submission win as well.

Bet: Beatriz Mesquita (-525)

Lucas Rocha (-125) vs. Stewart Nicoll (+105)

We have a pretty evenly priced matchup when Lucas Rocha (17-2) and Stewart Nicoll (8-1) wage war. Rocha comes into this bout with far more experience and the more impressive record by comparison, and he is unsurprisingly also the favorite to win.

Rocha is also five years younger and is a bit of a finishing machine, with 14 of his 17 wins ending early. He has especially been nasty with his fists, scoring 10 KOs in a number of ways. He did fail to deliver in his UFC debut in October of 2024, but losing to Clayton Carpenter isn’t too damaging.

Nicoll is an adept finisher (7 of 8 wins have come by stoppage), but he hasn’t really faced any top shelf talent and he also got submitted in his UFC debut. Something has to break here, but my gut says the guy with more experience and more proven finishing ability is the way to go.

Bet: Lucas Rocha (-125)

Valter Walker (-330) vs. Mohammed Usman (+260)

Here we have Valter Walker (14-1), who dropped a Decision in his UFC debut back in April of 2024, but hasn’t lost since. Normally that wouldn’t be that impressive, but he’s been extremely active, winning three fights since that defeat.

Walker has impressed against some pretty dangerous power hitters, forcing them all to tap out. He now has 10 finishes in 14 wins, and while he can certainly end fights with his fists, he has so far been at his best when he’s submitting his opponents.

Next up is Mohammed Usman (11-4), who is another guy capable of ending fights with his hands (4 KOs) and is landing 3.85 significant strikes per minute. His lone loss? You guessed it – a submission.

This could be another mismatch that benefits Walker, while he is also nine years younger than his opponent. Usman’s power also simply hasn’t translated to this level, either, as he has just one KO across six fights inside the UFC.

Usman still has a puncher’s chance, but I trust in Walker’s defense and aggressive takedown offense (5.43 takedowns per fight).

Bet: Valter Walker (-330)

Julia Polastri (-450) vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz (+325)

We have an interesting battle on our hands in just the second female-centric fight at UFC Rio, as Julia Polastri (13-5) hopes to fend off the aging Karolina Kowalkiewicz (16-9). Part of me wants to give Karolina a shot here – especially at her engaging +325 price tag – but she is now 39 years old and has lost her last two matches.

She’s still a solid fighter with decent defense and the ability to inflict a ton of damage. It simply isn’t typically dangerous, as she has one knockout to her name and just three wins by stoppage across 25 career bouts.

Polastri is also tough as nails, having prevented any kind of loss via stoppage in 18 bouts. She’s proven to be fairly versatile and has more finishing ability than her opponent, while offering about as much damage. 

Karolina is probably going to make this tough on Polastri, but the most likely result is a Decision and while the odds don’t agree, I think it’s actually by a razor thin margin.

Bet: Julia Polastri (-450)

Luan Lacerda (-245) vs. Saimon Oliveira (+210)

The last fight on the UFC Rio card has Luan Lacerda (12-3) taking on Saimon Oliveira (18-6). Oliveira has way more experience, but he’s also eaten six losses. The 34-year old hit a serious wall once he entered the UFC, as he’s 0-3 so far under the promotion.

Oliveira’s only two KO defeats of his career have come in the UFC ranks, so it’s worth wondering if he can handle the big step up in competition. That said, he is a proven finisher with elite submission skills. It just remains to be seen if they’ll ever translate.

Lacerda is two years younger and inflicts much more damage with his fists, while he’s about as good at taking the fight to the ground. He’s also prolific on the mat (10 submissions), but unlike his opponent, he’s been unable to get even a single knockout in his career.

Lacerda has also struggled inside the UFC, going 0-2 so far, with a KO defeat by the hands of Da’Mon Blackshear being his most recent result. I honestly don’t love either side, as they’ve shown very little against quality competition. However, Oliveira at least has proven to be more versatile and has experience on his side.

In what actually feels like a toss-up, I’ll take the guy at +210 and run.

Bet: Saimon Oliveira (+210)

The Best UFC Fight Night Picks

The following is our best UFC Fight Night picks for this weekend’s event:

• Charles Oliveira (-105)
• Clayton Carpenter (-125)
• Mario Pinto (-110)

I think there’s always going to be risk in any fighter you back, but Charles Oliveira at -105 feels insane. There is other betting value to fall in love with heading into UFC Rio, but when you look at skill-set, finishing ability, experience, and narrative, nobody offers the package he does.

Clayton Carpenter is just another good value. There’s nothing amazingly profound here, other than he’s a rock solid fighter and he should probably be a bigger favorite to beat Jafel Filho than he is. I think he’s an absolute steal at his -125 moneyline.

The same probably goes for Mario Pinto. I think there is more risk baked into this one just because he’s pretty raw yet and Jhonata Diniz is far more composed and a patient striker. However, Pinto doesn’t need patience when he can be so explosive and end the fight in the blink of an eye.

Pinto may not be the lock to end all locks, but he should be a bigger favorite than he is. He is a total smash pick at his -110 price tag.

UFC Fight Night 261 Card

Check out the updated UFC Fight Night fight card: