The UFC just pushed out perhaps the best PPV event of the year, in UFC 322. The follow-up will pale by comparison no matter what, and I’ll admit that the main event featuring a guy with over 10 career losses definitely feels like a step down.

That said, Dan Hooker fights are usually nothing if not theatrical, so I may actually be talking myself into UFC Qatar on the fly. The UFC Fight Night 265 odds are also out at the top online sportsbooks, which means it’s time to assess these matchups and find some winning UFC picks to target.

If you need help digesting the slate and want some winners to bet on, read on. I’ll go over the latest UFC Fight Night odds, offer my predicted winner for each bout, and cap things off with my top three bets for the night.

Where To Watch UFC Fight Night 265?

You can catch UFC Qatar on ESPN+, where both the Prelims and main card will be featured.

When Is UFC Fight Night 265?

This week’s MMA event starts at 10:00 am EST on Saturday, with the main card following at 1:00 pm EST.

Where Is UFC Fight Night 265?

The timing of the fights is a bit off for USA bettors, seeing as UFC Fight Night 265 will be popping off at the ABHA Arena in Doha, Qatar.

UFC Fight Night Main Card Odds

Check out the latest UFC Fight Night odds for the Main Card, courtesy of the top sports betting sites: 

The UFC Qatar odds aren’t obscene beyond the main event. Arman Tsarukyan was always going to be favored here, but at -500 he feels like a slam dunk. Dan Hooker is feisty, but he is going to be overmatched and betting against him feels easy this weekend.

After that, no other fight on the main card touches even -300, so we may have a card that isn’t so easy to predict. You will want to entertain some of the betting value in the way of upsets, though, as big names like Belal Muhammad, Alonzo Menifield, and Jack Hermansson all come in at +195 or better.

It’s tough to see all three of those guys failing, so the key to the main event is figuring out who wins in those three bouts.

Overall, it looks like a pretty underrated card and if we stop at the main card alone, I’d say we’re in for some fun. You can use my UFC Qatar picks above, or read on for more analysis. Before you make a call, be sure to check in with the best handicappers to see what they’re cooking up for UFC Fight Night 265.

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UFC Fight Night 265 Predictions For The Main Card

The main card for UFC Fight Night 265 begins at 1:00 pm EST on ESPN+.

Arman Tsarukyan (-500) vs. Dan Hooker (+350)

The odds say this fight is easy to predict (and it probably is), but let’s not completely ignore the wild Dan Hooker, who has 18 career finishes to his name. Hooker (24-12) is super aggressive and an explosive finisher, but he also leaves himself open to a ton of damage.

That’s probably not ideal against someone like Arman Tsarukyan (22-3), who has not been tripped up much during his UFC career and is as well-rounded as they come. In fact, the guy’s only losses in the past decade have come against Mateusz Gamrot and Islam Makhachev – both by Decision.

Hooker is always going to be live for a shocking KO or submission, but Arman’s defense and own finishing ability give him the clear edge. Being six years younger doesn’t hurt, either.

Bet: Arman Tsarukyan (-500)

Ian Machado Garry (-240) vs. Belal Muhammad (+195)

We could be getting glorious value when Ian Machado Garry (16-1) takes on Belal Muhammad (24-4). Garry has just one loss on his ledger (Shavkat Rakhmonov) and has been impossible to stop so far in his career.

Garry arguably hasn’t run into anyone as experienced as Muhammad yet, of course, while he also lets a lot of his fights go the distance. A lack of reliable finishing ability could get a more well-rounded fighter like Muhammad a leg up.

Muhammad is nearing the end at 37, but he loves a fight that goes long and it’s hard to knock him too hard when his lone loss since 2020 was to recent champion, Jack Della Maddalena. All things told, I think the value with Belal is insane here.

Garry is a good fighter with an elite record, but he will be tested here. Muhammad hasn’t been finished since he was a young pup, so Garry will have to beat the veteran at his own game and I won’t at all be shocked to see him struggle to do so.

Bet: Belal Muhammad (+195)

Volkan Oezdemir (-240) vs. Alonzo Menifield (+195)

Much respect to Volkan Oesdemir (20-8), but I fear for him in this spot. Alonzo Menifield (17-5-1) is gaining steam again, as he’s coming off  a big upset win over Oumar Sy, and beat Julius Walker the fight before that.

Menifield is a little older, but he’s also the bigger, stronger, and more explosive fighter in this matchup. Neither of these guys are great bets to work the fight to the ground, so we could have a Fight of the Night candidate on our hands if they opt to stand and trade blows.

That approach would favor Menifield, who was admittedly knocked out in each of his last two losses, but we know he has the power and finishing ability to dish out the same punishment. Oezdemir is as composed and as dangerous as they come, but he does lose some height and reach here, while between the two, he’s much more vulnerable to submissions.

I don’t think that is where this fight goes, though. Both of these guys dish out a lot of damage with their fists, but they also leave openings to get taken out. I smell a KO, but I lean towards the guy offering better value and the more appealing package of size, strength, and athleticism.

Bet: Alonzo Menifield (+195)

Myktybek Orolbai (-250) vs. Jack Hermansson (+200)

My string of UFC Qatar upset picks will take a break, as I don’t think a 37-year old Jack Hermansson (24-9) is a great bet to take out the surging Myktybek Orolbai (14-2-1).

Orolbai does lose 3.5 inches in reach and is the shorter fighter, but his takedown offense is amazing compared to Hermansson’s. We’re also seeing an aging fighter drop weight classes, which probably tells us he knows he can’t hack it anymore.

Hermansson is a vicious finisher who loves to get to the ground, but Orolbai obviously fares quite well there. Hermansson’s recent form is also suspect. He did surprise with a Decision win over Joe Pyfer two fights ago, but he has also gotten KO’d in two of his last three bouts.

I think the way he wants to fight plays right into Orolbai’s hands, as Myktybek is a maestro on the mat and has never been finished in any regard. His experience in the UFC obviously pales by comparison to Hermansson, but this just feels like a poor matchup stylistically for a fading fighter.

Bet: Myktybek Orolbai (-250)

Shamil Gaziev (-140) vs. Serghei Spivac (+120)

Next up we have Serghei Spivac (17-6) as a compelling underdog just because he is five years younger than his opponent. There is no reach edge either way, and the numbers definitely favor the more experienced Spivac.

Spivac has far better takedown offense with 4.21 takedowns per fight, and he also has inflicted more damage with his fists. His big problem? He’s got a soft chin, as he has been KO’d four times in his career and one of them came recently against Jailton Almeida at UFC 311.

Shamil Gaziev (14-1) could take advantage of that, as he has nine knockouts to his name, but has also flashed some versatility with three submissions. He did get TKO’d by Jairzinho Rozenstruik not that long ago, of course, so it’s not like his game is perfect despite the impressive record.

I think Spivac is a fair bet here, but Gazeiv’s power and ability to grind the fight out on the mat are both potential problems for Spivac. This is one I’d definitely want to consider targeting an inside the distance win or method of victory prop, with KO being the heavy lean.

Bet: Shamil Gaziev (-140)

Asu Almabayev (-200) vs. Alex Perez (+170)

The last fight of the UFC Qatar main card feels like an easy call. It also seems a tad mispriced, as you could argue Asu Almabayev’s odds (22-3) are a tad light. I think we’re getting some value here even with the betting favorite, seeing as he’s the more skilled fighter, has far better recent form, and is going to have an edge on the canvas.

Asu is the younger fighter with much better takedown offense, while he’s adept at ending fights on the ground (9 submissions) and Alex Perez (25-9) has specifically had major troubles preventing tap outs.

Perez does have finishing upside and is going to hold the striking edge, but he’s been shaky of late with losses in four of his last five fights – and three of them coming early.

I think Almabayev could struggle if the fight stays on the feet, while I’m also slightly wary of Perez’s own submission game and ability to counter on the mat. That said, Asu has been the more dominant fighter and probably isn’t going to lose at his own game.

Bet: Asu Almabayev (-200)

UFC Fight Night Preliminary Card Odds

Check out the latest UFC Qatar odds for the Preliminary Card.

The odds for the UFC Qatar Prelims are a bit all over the place. The Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev fight is going to be off limits, short of a bet on Rafael Cerqueira or a method of victory wager.

One bout doesn’t even have odds yet, too, so keep an eye on how the odds drop for the Bujlo vs. Freeman bout. Then there’s the Almakhan vs. Topuria fight, which is priced as a true pick’em and the only UFC Qatar fight without a true favorite.

The other fights are reasonably priced and aren’t worth taking issue with. More than anything, this portion of the card comes down to simply picking your spots.

You can use my UFC predictions above, or read on for further analysis, as well as my best overall bets for the weekp with my three preferred bets to target for the entire card.

UFC Fight Night 265 Predictions For The Preliminary Card

The UFC Fight Night 265 kicks off with the Prelims at 10:00 am EST on ESPN+.

Luke Riley (-265) vs. Bogdan Grad (+215)

Luke Riley (11-0) will put his perfect record on the line at UFC Fight Night 265, where he’ll run into the dangerous Bogdan Grad (15-3). 

This will be the much-hyped UFC debut for Riley, who has eight KOs to his name and is as vicious as they come. The risk is in the fact that he has never really been tested, and UFC debuts can often go either way.

Grad is not a cakewalk opponent for someone’s first ever match, either. He has a solid overall record, finishing his opponent in 12 of 15 wins. He’s just as dangerous with his fists (9 knockouts), and impressed two fights ago with a TKO win over Lucas Alexander in his own UFC debut.

That said, Riley is a show-stopper with limitless stamina and explosiveness. He’s a hunter inside the cage and while Grad is a threat, I don’t think he brings the same intensity or killer instinct Riley possesses.

I do think a KO prop bet is in the cards for this one, or at least an inside the distance win wager. Riley’s ML isn’t overly appealing at -265, but in a very real way it’s a borderline discount.

Bet: Luke Riley (-265)

Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (-1200) vs. Rafael Cerqueira (+750)

Another undefeated fighter hopes to stay perfect at UFC Qatar, as Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (-1200) will be an insane betting favorite when he prepares to battle Rafael Cerqueira (11-3).

This is an untouchable moneyline, so you’re either seeing if Cerqueira is in play for the upset, hunting a method of victory bet, or avoiding it altogether. I’d say Yakhyaev is definitely a good bet to win, as he is younger by 11 years, has a two-inch reach advantage, and has been quite dominant with a finish in six of seven fights.

He’s also been highly versatile and seems to get better with every fight. He’s fresh off of a nice TKO win over Alik Lorenz in week three of Dana White’s Contender Series, and he comes into this event as an astronomical favorite in his official UFC debut.

Godspeed to Cerqueira, who is a scary finisher (10 finishes in 11 wins), but has been KO’d twice and has struggled immensely (0-3) to start his UFC career. He’s still dangerous and is obviously up against it to prove he belongs, so I think he’s very live for the upset.

That said, he’s also a bit overmatched. I wouldn’t target the ML here, but a Yakhyaev win seems very likely.

Bet: Abdul-Rakhman Yakhaev (-1200)

Tagir Ulanbekov (-195) vs. Kyoji Horiguchi (+165)

We get a really interesting bout when Tagir Ulanbekov (17-2) takes on a guy in Kyoji Horiguchi (34-5) that has fought 39 times professionally.

If you haven’t heard of Kyoji, have a look at his fight history, as the guy has been around. He was even once in the UFC, where he went an impressive 7-1 before moving to Bellator. His lone loss in the UFC, by the way? Demetrius Johnson.

Horiguchi has run into some trouble against some less than elite opponents, but he deserves a long, hard look due to the lengthy resume and a bounce-back with wins in five of his last six matches.

All that said, Horiguchi is 35 now and hasn’t run into many elite opponents in quite some time. Tagi will be the best fighter he’s faced in a while, and this is not a dude you can finish easily (or at all).

I like the pricing, but if I am rolling the dice on Kyoji, I’d rather get more money back. I think this one is hard-fought and goes the distance, but Ulanbekov is the play here. He owns a four-inch reach advantage, is comparable in striking, and has slightly better takedown offense.

Bet: Tagir Ulanbekov (-195)

Bekzat Almakhan (-110) vs. Aleksandre Topuria (-110)

I will take the -110 odds associated with Bekzat Almakan (12-2) and run with them. This has to be one of the best UFC Qatar bets on the board, seeing as it’s pretty arguable the price is too tight due to name recognition.

It’s not like Alesandre Topuria is bad, but he didn’t blow anyone away in his UFC debut at UFC 312 and he did get knocked out by Ivo Ivano before climbing the ladder and getting to this level. Neither of those things guarantee he loses this one, as he is a versatile fighter with clear pedigree in his corner.

Still, Almakhan has more experience and has been more impressive. He hung tight with Umar Nurmagomedov in his first UFC fight, while he rocked a previously un-rockable Brad Katona back in May.

With 10 KOs in 12 fights, he is a lethal fighter that I’m not sure Topuria will be ready for.

Bet: Bekzat Almakhan (-110)

Ismail Naurdiev (-130) vs. Ryan Loder (+110)

In this fight we have an aging fighter in Ryan Loder (7-2) who lacks experience, but is super explosive with five KOs to his name. There is not much proven versatility here, while Loder showed in his last fight (a TKO loss to Azamat Bekoev) that he will be vulnerable to finishes himself.

I think this is just a skill-set mismatch. Loder can execute the ground and pound well, but he did get absolutely outclassed in that loss to Bekoev. If that’s a sign of things to come, we should be jumping at this -130 price tag for Naurdiev.

Naurdiev (24-8) offers far more experience, is five years younger, and has comparable takedown offense. He is coming off a Decision loss to Jun Yong Park, but won his two matches before that and offers much better versatility and proven finishing ability (18 wins by stoppage).

Loder is always a threat, but Naurdiev looks like the more well-rounded fighter. All things considered, he feels like an insane value on this slate.

Bet: Ismail Naurdiev (-130)

Nurullo Aliev (-280) vs. Shem Rock (+230)

We have yet another undefeated fighter putting their unblemished record on the line, as Nurullo Aliev (10-0) will hope to stay hot when he battles Shem Rock (11-1-1).

Both of these guys have excellent records, but Aliev is already 2-0 under the UFC banner and obviously has never lost. He lacks explosive finishing ability, but he has elite defense and toughness and grades out as the better overall fighter.

That isn’t to say you can’t give Rock a go at his +230 moneyline, as he has displayed way more upside (8 submissions). The problem is he has not run into the same level of competition Aliev has faced, while Nurullo’s track record suggests Rock’s pressure and floor game may not be able to get to him.

Due to his defense and superior competition, Aliev still looks like the play. I just wouldn’t target him at his -280 price, and also wouldn’t bet on a win inside the distance.

Bet: Nurullo Aliev (-280)

Saygid Izagakhmaev (-330) vs. Nicolas Dalby (+260)

Lastly, we have Saygid Izagakhmaev (22-2) taking on the tried and true Nicolas Dalby (23-6-1), who refuses to go quietly into the night.

Dalby is now 41 years old and just got KO’d by Randy Brown, but that’s not the worst loss in the world, and he’s not that far removed from knocking out Gabriel Bonfim.

Age may not be just a number here, as Dalby has lost two in a row, but the finishing ability still exists. I just don’t know if I am afraid of it popping up here, as Izagakhmaev is 10 years younger, is equally dangerous on the mat (13 career submissions), and he’s never been knocked out.

The downside is there’s a first time for everything and Izagakhmaev will be making his UFC debut. Still, he’s done quite well at all of his stops, while he hasn’t tasted defeat since 2021.

Dalby’s explosive striking and experience could be problematic, and it’s enough to get me off of Saygid’s -330 ML. Instead, I would target Izagakhmaev via submission or simply bet on both fighter’s finishing ability and chase an inside the distance win.

That said, if you need a straight up winner, it’s Izagakhmaev.

Bet: Saygid Izagakhmaev (-330)

Marek Bujlo (N/A) vs. Denzel Freeman (N/A)

This is the only UFC Qatar fight without odds, which isn’t shocking since there isn’t a ton of data on these two heavyweights – plus I’d price it pretty tight.

Bujlo is undefeated (6-0) with six finishes, and he’s probably the more versatile fighter of the two. That obviously makes him dangerous and I wouldn’t be shocked if it led to him ultimately being favored.

That said, Freeman offers a contrast of styles, as he has superior power and striking on the feet. He also has slightly more experience, is arguably the better overall athlete, and has fought in more prestigious promotions.

If the fight goes to the mat, Bujlo has the edge. If the fight stays on the feet, we can target Freeman and chase the KO. I think it’s a toss-up, but give me Freeman’s power.

Bet: Denzel Freeman (N/A)

The Best UFC Fight Night Picks

The following is our best UFC Fight Night picks for this weekend’s event:

• Arman Tsarukyan (-500)
• Belal Muhammad (+195)
• Luke Riley (-265)

I can’t see an avenue for Tsarukyan to lose this fight. Obviously Dan Hooker has explosive finishing ability, but he is an aging and overmatched fighter in this spot. I expect Tsarukyan to dominate and he is a terrific addition to any UFC parlays you do this week.

Muhammad is my favorite upset pick at UFC Qatar. He’s obviously nearing the end at 37, but he’s been really good with one loss against an elite fighter. The value here is too good to ignore.

Riley is a rising sensation who feels a bit cheap. If you don’t like the ML price, target him to win via KO; I tend to doubt you will be disappointed.

These are my three favorite Qatar bets. You can add them to parlays, target them individually, or go after variations (method of victory, etc) that align with these picks.

UFC Fight Night 265 Card

Check out the updated UFC Fight Night 265 fight card: