We’ve got an interesting “proposition” for sports bettors – how do you handicap a game when you don’t really know who’s playing?

It’s not really exactly like that, but at this moment, we are unaware as to the availability of the most formidable players on each team. We are, of course, talking about Trae Young of the Atlanta Hawks and Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Milwaukee Bucks.

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This is obviously critical, because this series is now tied up at two games apiece as we go to Game 5, which is slated for 8:35 PM ET at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee.

If we were to handicap the injuries themselves, we would say that Giannis, with his hyper-extended knee, is not likely to see action, while Young, who sat out Game 4 with a bone cruise in his foot, would probably be more likely to play, when you consider that he got out and gave it a try during warmups a couple of nights ago before waving it off.

Certainly the Hawks are not as dangerous a team without Young, but what happened in Game 4 is what often happens when a key player gets injured, which is that suddenly his team becomes more difficult to defend. The other team simply doesn’t know what’s coming. And there is invariably more ball distribution when you take a guy with a Usage figure of 41.1% out of the equation.

The Hawks had to find scoring from another place, and that’s exactly what they did. Lou Williams, who got what amounted to a last-minute battlefield promotion to start the game, had 21 points.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=1qc0CkduJv4

Giannis played the first half of Game 4, and a few minutes into the second. Then he was lost. For what it’s worth, Jrue Holiday was the most involved player for the Bucks in the second half, with more points and shot attempts than anybody. But we want to take note the fact that when Giannis went down with an injury in the first quarter of Game 5 against Miami last season, Khris Middleton exploded for 36 points. He has also scored 38 points in a game against both Brooklyn and Atlanta this year.

In other words, even though we hit on an “under” with Middleton in the last game, he is admittedly the Milwaukee player who is most capable of “going off” to fill the vacuum left by Giannis.

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And we don’t sense that Milwaukee is going to be “surprised” this time about how the Hawks come out and operate their offense.

So what can we do to produce a winning NBA prop bet, so bettors can cash in?

Well…

Hawks vs. Bucks 1st Quarter Props Picks (Game 5)

Hawks vs. Bucks Picks

MILWAUKEE TO WIN 1ST QUARTER (-110)

Milwaukee is a 1/2-point favorite over Atlanta in the first quarter, with a total of 54.5 points.

If there is a psychological angle here, we envision that the Bucks feel more of a sense of urgency after losing by such a huge margin in a game where they could have taken advantage of the absence of Young.

If the Bucks were a slow-starting team, they aren’t. They were among just a handful of NBA team to average 30 points or more in the first quarter. And they were fourth in the league with an average first quarter margin of +2.7. Atlanta is about even in that category.

And if you want to get a little more “in-depth” about it, you could go…

Winning NBA Picks

MILWAUKEE -2.5 IN 1ST QUARTER (+140)

This would actually represent the average margin in terms of expectation, based on the performance of the two teams this season….. in the first quarter, that is. Of course, you’ve got variables, such as the potential absence of star players. But then it comes down to which way that might tilt things. We believe it’s going to tilt toward the Bucks.

Bet on deGrom and the Mets Tonight

Mets vs. Braves Picks

If you’d allow, can we say a few words about Jacob deGrom?

The Mets’ right-hander, a two-time Cy Young winner, is having an historic season. But then, you’ve probably heard that already. On Thursday he is a -170 favorite over the Atlanta Braves and Ian Anderson (+150). Consider that deGrom has:

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-Allowed 30 hits in 78 innings.

-Allowed three homers in those 78 innings.

-Held opponents to a .204 SLUGGING average and .153 on-base percentage.

-Posted a strikeout-walk ratio of better than 11-to-1.

-Struck out 44% of the batters he’s faced.

-Allowed six earned runs and DRIVEN IN six runs, and we’re now moving into July.

Obviously, we can keep going if we want to. But seriously, isn’t a guy like this worth the -170?

We’d say so, considering the Mets have won his last eight starts.

Check out our MLB picks for every game today.